The hindcast and forecast of Arctic sea ice from FIO-ESM

SHU Qi; QIAO Fangli; SONG Zhenya

doi:10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2013.05.004

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SHU Qi, QIAO Fangli, SONG Zhenya. The hindcast and forecast of Arctic sea ice from FIO-ESM[J]. Haiyang Xuebao, 2013, 35(5): 37-45. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2013.05.004

Citation:

SHU Qi, QIAO Fangli, SONG Zhenya. The hindcast and forecast of Arctic sea ice from FIO-ESM[J]. Haiyang Xuebao, 2013, 35(5): 37-45. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2013.05.004

SHU Qi, QIAO Fangli, SONG Zhenya. The hindcast and forecast of Arctic sea ice from FIO-ESM[J]. Haiyang Xuebao, 2013, 35(5): 37-45. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2013.05.004

Citation:

SHU Qi, QIAO Fangli, SONG Zhenya. The hindcast and forecast of Arctic sea ice from FIO-ESM[J]. Haiyang Xuebao, 2013, 35(5): 37-45. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2013.05.004

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The hindcast and forecast of Arctic sea ice from FIO-ESM

doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2013.05.004

1.
College of Physical and Environmental Oceanography, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China;First Institute of Oceanography, State Oceanic Administration, Qingdao 266061, China;Key Lab of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling, State Oceanic Administration, Qingdao 266061, China
2.
First Institute of Oceanography, State Oceanic Administration, Qingdao 266061, China;Key Lab of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling, State Oceanic Administration, Qingdao 266061, China

Received Date: 2012-07-16

Abstract

Abstract

The hindcast and forecast of Arctic sea ice from FIO-ESM (First Institute of Oceanography-Earth System Model) based on CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) historical and future climate projections experiments are evaluated and analyzed. Compared with satellite observations, the climatological Arctic sea ice extent can be well simulated by this climate model. FIO-ESM can well reproduce monthly climatological Arctic sea ice extent, within ±15% of satellite observations. The decline trend of the Arctic sea ice during 1979-2005 can also be simulated; however the simulated sea ice extent decreased trend is 2.24×10⁴ km² per year while the observed trend is 4.72×10⁴ km² per year. The forecast for 21^st century shows that the Arctic sea ice trend will be depend on different RCPs (Representative Concentration Pathways). Different from all other climate models, the Arctic sea ice extent will increase under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5, and will have no significant trend under RCP6, while the Arctic sea ice extent will continue to decline under RCP8.5.
- CMIP5,
- Earth System Model,
- climate change,
- Arctic sea ice

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References(27)

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