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基于Prophet算法的海南近海波浪长时段时序分析与预测

黄心裕 唐军 王晓宇

黄心裕,唐军,王晓宇. 基于Prophet算法的海南近海波浪长时段时序分析与预测[J]. 海洋学报,2022,44(4):114–121 doi: 10.12284/hyxb2022086
引用本文: 黄心裕,唐军,王晓宇. 基于Prophet算法的海南近海波浪长时段时序分析与预测[J]. 海洋学报,2022,44(4):114–121 doi: 10.12284/hyxb2022086
Huang Xinyu,Tang Jun,Wang Xiaoyu. Long term time series analysis and prediction of waves at Hainan offshore zone based on Prophet algorithm[J]. Haiyang Xuebao,2022, 44(4):114–121 doi: 10.12284/hyxb2022086
Citation: Huang Xinyu,Tang Jun,Wang Xiaoyu. Long term time series analysis and prediction of waves at Hainan offshore zone based on Prophet algorithm[J]. Haiyang Xuebao,2022, 44(4):114–121 doi: 10.12284/hyxb2022086

基于Prophet算法的海南近海波浪长时段时序分析与预测

doi: 10.12284/hyxb2022086
基金项目: 国家重点研发计划(2022YFE0104500);国家自然科学基金(51579036)。
详细信息
    作者简介:

    黄心裕(1996-),男,海南省海口市人,从事海岸和近海环境水动力研究。E-mail: 704578677@qq.com

    通讯作者:

    唐军(1976-),男,宁夏回族自治区中宁县人,从事近岸环境水动力研究。E-mail:jtang@dlut.edu.cn

  • 中图分类号: P731.22

Long term time series analysis and prediction of waves at Hainan offshore zone based on Prophet algorithm

  • 摘要: 近年来,以大数据为基础的人工智能算法逐步兴起并被用于海洋波浪短期预测。本文采用2015−2019年海南近海逐时波浪实测时序数据,基于Prophet算法建立了海南近海波浪长时段时序预测模型,分析了2015−2019年海南近海波浪日、月、年变化特性,并对海南近海2020年波浪变化过程进行了预测。结果显示,Prophet算法模型对波浪波高和周期的预测值和实测值整体吻合良好,可有效用于长时段波浪的特性分析和时序预测。
  • 图  1  Prophet模型构建与预测流程

    Fig.  1  Prophet model construction and prediction process

    图  2  测点位置及地形

    Fig.  2  Survey points location and topography

    图  3  有效波高训练结果

    a. 未考虑极端天气影响;b. 考虑极端天气影响

    Fig.  3  Training-fitting results of effective wave heights

    a. Without considering extreme weather influence; b. considering extreme weather influence

    图  4  波浪平均周期训练结果

    a. 未考虑极端天气影响;b. 考虑极端天气影响

    Fig.  4  Training-fitting results of wave mean periods

    a. Without considering extreme weather influence; b. considering extreme weather influence

    图  5  2015−2019年波浪日历时变化

    Fig.  5  Daily wave duration changes from 2015 to 2019

    图  6  2015−2019年波浪月历时变化

    Fig.  6  Monthly wave duration changes from 2015 to 2019

    图  7  2015−2019年波浪年历时变化

    Fig.  7  Yearly wave duration changes from 2015 to 2019

    图  8  2020年测点预测和实测波浪有效波高对比

    Fig.  8  Comparison between predicted and measured significant wave heights in 2020

    图  9  2020年预测和实测波浪有效波高散点图

    Fig.  9  Scatter plot of predicted and measured effective wave heights in 2020

    图  10  2020年测点预测和实测波浪平均周期对比

    Fig.  10  Comparison between predicted and measured wave mean periods in 2020

    图  11  2020年预测和实测波浪平均周期散点图

    Fig.  11  Scatter plot of predicted and measured wave mean periods in 2020

    表  1  测点坐标及水深

    Tab.  1  Location and water depth of survey points

    测点纬度经度水深/m
    buoy119.05°N110.35°E 15.5
    buoy219.05°N110.70°E101.4
    buoy319.05°N111.05°E186.7
    下载: 导出CSV
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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2021-07-21
  • 修回日期:  2021-10-30
  • 刊出日期:  2022-04-15

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