Projected Changes of the Potential Distribution of <i>Azadinium dexteroporum</i> in Chinese Coastal Waters under Climate Change

Liu Xuan; Luo Zhaohe; Jin Rui; Liu Jinquan; Su Shangke; Kang Jianhua; Hu Dengjin; Zhang Weini; Hu Wenjia

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Liu Xuan，Luo Zhaohe，Jin Rui, et al. Projected Changes of the Potential Distribution of Azadinium dexteroporum in Chinese Coastal Waters under Climate Change[J]. Haiyang Xuebao，2025, 48(x)：1–13

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Liu Xuan，Luo Zhaohe，Jin Rui, et al. Projected Changes of the Potential Distribution of Azadinium dexteroporum in Chinese Coastal Waters under Climate Change[J]. Haiyang Xuebao，2025, 48(x)：1–13

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Projected Changes of the Potential Distribution of Azadinium dexteroporum in Chinese Coastal Waters under Climate Change

Liu Xuan^{1, 2
,},
Luo Zhaohe^{2, 3},
Jin Rui⁴,
Liu Jinquan²,
Su Shangke²,
Kang Jianhua²,
Hu Dengjin⁵,
Zhang Weini¹,
Hu Wenjia^{2
,
,}

1.
State Key Laboratory of Mariculture Breeding, Fujian Key Laboratory of Marine Biotechnology, College of Marine Sciences, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou, Fujian 350002, China
2.
Third Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources, Xiamen 361005, China
3.
Xiamen Institute of Technology, Xiamen, 361024, China
4.
Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Marine Disaster Prediction and Prevention, Shantou University, Shantou 515063, China
5.
Fujian Institute of Oceanography, Xiamen 361013, China

Received Date: 2025-10-11
Rev Recd Date: 2025-12-16

Available Online: 2026-01-06

Abstract

Abstract

Toxic algal species pose significant threats to ecological environmental safety and human health. Azadinium dexteroporum, one of the main producers of azaspiracid toxins, remains poorly studied in China, and its distribution in Chinese coastal waters is still unclear. In this study, environmental DNA (eDNA) methods were used to obtain occurrence records of A. dexteroporum in Chinese coastal areas. Using the 2050s and 2100s as future projection periods, the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt)model was applied to simulate the potential suitable habitats of this species under current and three future climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585). The results indicated that nitrate concentration, silicate concentration, and sea surface temperature were the primary environmental factors influencing the distribution of A. dexteroporum. Under current conditions, the suitable habitat area was estimated to be 63.71 × 10⁴ km², mainly concentrated in the northern South China Sea. With climate change, the potential suitable area of A. dexteroporum is projected to shrink, decreasing to 5.58×10⁴ km²～32.21×10⁴ km² by the 2100s. The spatial distribution pattern of suitable habitats shows an overall “southward contraction and northward expansion” trend: the extensive suitable areas in the South China Sea are expected to disappear, while new suitable areas may emerge in the Yellow and Bohai Seas. The centroid of suitable habitats is projected to shift up to 1,439 km, migrating from the northern South China Sea to north of the Yangtze River estuary. These findings provide important scientific insights for the ecological risk monitoring, forecasting, and management of harmful dinoflagellates.
- Azadinium dexteroporum,
- MaxEnt model,
- climate scenario,
- potential suitable habitat,
- eDNA

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References(75)

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