An ENSO hindcast experiment using CESM

Li Yi; Chen Xingrong; Tan Jing; Huang Yongyong; Cai Yi

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Li Yi, Chen Xingrong, Tan Jing, Huang Yongyong, Cai Yi. An ENSO hindcast experiment using CESM[J]. Haiyang Xuebao, 2015, 37(9): 39-50.

Citation:

Li Yi, Chen Xingrong, Tan Jing, Huang Yongyong, Cai Yi. An ENSO hindcast experiment using CESM[J]. Haiyang Xuebao, 2015, 37(9): 39-50.

Li Yi, Chen Xingrong, Tan Jing, Huang Yongyong, Cai Yi. An ENSO hindcast experiment using CESM[J]. Haiyang Xuebao, 2015, 37(9): 39-50.

Citation:

Li Yi, Chen Xingrong, Tan Jing, Huang Yongyong, Cai Yi. An ENSO hindcast experiment using CESM[J]. Haiyang Xuebao, 2015, 37(9): 39-50.

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An ENSO hindcast experiment using CESM

1.
The Division of Ocean Climate Prediction, National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, Beijing 100081, China
2.
The Division of Ocean Climate Prediction, National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, Beijing 100081, China;Key Laboratory of Research on Marine Hazards Forecasting, National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, Beijing 100081, China

Received Date: 2014-09-28
Rev Recd Date: 2015-03-17

Abstract

Abstract

An ENSO forecast system based on the Community Earth System Model (CESM) released by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) is developed. We use a simple sub-surface sea temperature nudging scheme to generate realistic SST distribution. Hindcast results for the period 1982-2011 show a high predictability of ENSO. All past El Niño and La Niña events,including the strong 1997/1998 warm episode,are successfully predicted with SST,zonal wind and precipitation matching well with GODAS and NCEP datasets. The correlation coefficient of Niño3 index scores 0.88,0.81 and 0.70 at the 1-,3-and 6-month lead time respectively. However,the model shows a "spring prediction barrier" with the best predictability in autumn and the worst in spring. The comparisons of zonal wind,heat flux,SST anomaly,wind stress and sub-surface temperature of 1982/1983 and 1997/1999 demonstrate that the atmospheric response is latter than that of the ocean,which is in contrast with observing and reanalysis data. This is due to the ocean-only data assimilation scheme,which forces a delayed atmospheric response.
- CESM,
- nudging,
- ENSO hindcast

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References(26)

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