The EOF analysis of temperature and zonal flow in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and the study of the El Ni&#241;o forecasting

CAI Yi; WANG Zhang-gui; YU Zhou-wen; CHEN Xing-rong

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CAI Yi, WANG Zhang-gui, YU Zhou-wen, CHEN Xing-rong. The EOF analysis of temperature and zonal flow in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and the study of the El Niño forecasting[J]. Haiyang Xuebao, 2003, 25(1): 12-18.

Citation:

CAI Yi, WANG Zhang-gui, YU Zhou-wen, CHEN Xing-rong. The EOF analysis of temperature and zonal flow in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and the study of the El Niño forecasting[J]. Haiyang Xuebao, 2003, 25(1): 12-18.

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The EOF analysis of temperature and zonal flow in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and the study of the El Niño forecasting

National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, Beijing 100081, China

Received Date: 2001-12-19
Rev Recd Date: 2002-05-10

Abstract

Abstract

The data of temperature and tonal flow anomaly in the equatorial Pacific Ocean which are meaned in 5°N~5°S with 5~430 m from 1980 to 2001 are analyzed with EOF method.The relation between the EOF main components of the temperature and tonal flow anomaly and El Niño is discussed.It is found that EOF first and second components of the temperature take about 80% among total amount.There are two processes in the second component.One is slow process and the other is quick process.The process fn}m warm to cold is quick and the process from cold to warm is slow.The quick process results in El Niño.The first mode means the variation of Nino3 temperature and the second mode means the variation of warm pool in the equatorial western Pacific Ocean.The EOF second component of the tonal flow means the variation of the undercurrent in the western Pacific Ocean and the sea surface current in the eastern Pacific Ocean.There are two processes in the EOF second component of the tonal flow.One which takes an half year is slow and the other which is simarlar to El Niño is quick.It is necessary for the undercurrent to stronger in the western Pacific Ocean and for the sea surface current to weaken in the eastern Pacific Ocean.El Niño can been forecasted using EOF semnd components of the temperature and tonal flow anomaly in advence 8 to 12 months to some extent.
- equatorial Pacific Ocean,
- oceanic temperature anomaly,
- venal flow anomaly,
- EOF analysis

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References(10)

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