The study on the numerical prediction method for the vertical thermal structure of intermediate cold waterin the northwestern area of the East China Sea Ⅱ. Three dimensional numerical prediction model

A ccording to the character istics of vertical thermal structure of intermediate cold water,and considering the sea surface thermal and dynamical forcing factors,the shear stress and entrainment heat exchange in the interfaces of water layers,heat advection,mixing and topographic effect,firstly the closedly relevant equations are derived by vertical integrating whole ocean and each layer,respectively based on primitive momentum,continuity and heat conduction equations.The equations can describe wind-driven interface fluctuation,the mean velocity and temperature fields in each layer.And after solving mean temperature field in each water layer T_k(k=1,2,3,4), the characterizing temperature in each relevant water interface are obtained,on the basis of the relation between T_k and characterizing temperature.Finally,the three-dimensional heat structure of ocean with intermediate cold water is constructed by means of temperature profile expression.In order to verify the function of the model,the trial predictions of three-dimensional thermal structure in the study sea area on 15 May are made by valid time of 5 days. The comparison between the trial results and the measured ones is also carried out.The results show that the mean absolute error of water temperature trial prediction equals 0.25℃,so the results of the trial prediction is satisfactory.