Evaluation of the prediction effect of two GAMs on the distribution of <i>Cynoglossus joyneri</i> in the Haizhou Bay

Sun Xiao; Zhang Yunlei; Liu Xiaoxiao; Cheng Yuan; Ji Yupeng; Ren Yiping; Xue Ying

doi:10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2020.06.003

Volume 42 Issue 6

Nov. 2020

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Sun Xiao，Zhang Yunlei，Liu Xiaoxiao, et al. Evaluation of the prediction effect of two GAMs on the distribution of Cynoglossus joyneri in the Haizhou Bay[J]. Haiyang Xuebao，2020, 42(6)：20–28 doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2020.06.003

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Sun Xiao，Zhang Yunlei，Liu Xiaoxiao, et al. Evaluation of the prediction effect of two GAMs on the distribution of Cynoglossus joyneri in the Haizhou Bay[J]. Haiyang Xuebao，2020, 42(6)：20–28 doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2020.06.003

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Evaluation of the prediction effect of two GAMs on the distribution of Cynoglossus joyneri in the Haizhou Bay

doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2020.06.003

Sun Xiao^1
,,
Zhang Yunlei¹,
Liu Xiaoxiao¹,
Cheng Yuan³,
Ji Yupeng^{1, 4},
Ren Yiping^{1, 2, 4},
Xue Ying^{1, 4
,
,}

1.
Fisheries College, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266003, China
2.
Laboratory for Marine Fisheries Science and Food Production Processes, Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (Qingdao), Qingdao 266237, China
3.
Offshore (Dalian) Ecological Development Co. Ltd., Dalian 116023, China
4.
Field Observation and Research Station of Haizhou Bay Fishery Ecosystem, Ministry of Education, Qingdao 266003, China

Received Date: 2019-08-14
Rev Recd Date: 2019-12-02

Available Online: 2020-11-18

Publish Date: 2020-06-25

Abstract

Abstract

Based on the bottom trawl surveys in the Haizhou Bay and adjacent waters during spring and autumn of 2011 and 2013−2018, the performance of regular GAM and PCA-GAM was compared, and the distribution of Cynoglossus joyneri in this area was predicted. The predictive ability and fitting effect of the two GAMs were evaluated by cross-validation. The results showed that the goodness of fit and prediction effects of PCA-GAM were better than those of regular GAM. In spring and autumn, the abundance of C. joyneri in the southern waters was higher than that in the northern waters, and the abundance in the near-shore shallow waters was larger than that in the deep waters. The higher water temperature in the coastal waters of the southern Haizhou Bay was conducive to the development of gonads for the spawning groups during spring and autumn. The lower salinity was conducive to the growth and development of fish eggs and larvae. At the same time, the abundant prey resources in the coastal waters provides a large amount of food for it after spawning period. In this study, two GAMs were used to predict the resource distribution of C. joyneri in the Haizhou Bay in spring and autumn of 2018. The results showed that the predicted abundance by PCA-GAM were more consistent with the actual catches, and the performance of PCA-GAM was better than the regular GAM. This study provides a new method for studying the spatial distribution of marine organisms in the future.
- GAM,
- principal component analysis,
- Haizhou Bay,
- central Yellow Sea,
- Cynoglossus joyneri

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References(28)

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