Forecasting model of abundance index of <i>Cololabis saira</i> in the Northwest Pacific under different climate condition

Liu Zhu'nan; Chen Xinjun

doi:10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2018.06.007

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Liu Zhu'nan, Chen Xinjun. Forecasting model of abundance index of Cololabis saira in the Northwest Pacific under different climate condition[J]. Haiyang Xuebao, 2018, 40(6): 74-82. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2018.06.007

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Liu Zhu'nan, Chen Xinjun. Forecasting model of abundance index of Cololabis saira in the Northwest Pacific under different climate condition[J]. Haiyang Xuebao, 2018, 40(6): 74-82. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2018.06.007

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Forecasting model of abundance index of Cololabis saira in the Northwest Pacific under different climate condition

doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2018.06.007

Liu Zhu'nan¹,
Chen Xinjun^2
,

1.
College of Marine Sciences, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China
2.
College of Marine Sciences, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China;Key Laboratory of Oceanic Fisheries Exploration, Ministry of Agriculture, Shanghai 201306, China;National Engineering Research Center for Oceanic Fisheries, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China;Key Laboratory of Sustainable Exploitation of Oceanic Fisheries Resources, Ministry of Education, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China;Scientific Observing and Experimental Station of Oceanic Fishery Resources, Ministry of Agriculture, Shanghai 201306, China

Received Date: 2017-07-18
Rev Recd Date: 2017-09-13

Abstract

Abstract

Cololabis saira is extremely sensitive to marine environmental factors.Different climate conditions may have different effects on abundance index of Cololabis saira in the Northwest Pacific.We defined the year as cold year or warm year by annual average of Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO) index. Based on the data of the CPUE (catch per unit effort) and sea surface temperature (SST) data from remote sensing in the feeding grounds and spawning grounds in the Northwest Pacific from 1990 to 2014, the relationship between CPUE and SST is analyzed, and the forecasting model of abundance index is also established by using the linear regression models for the cold and warm index years.The results show that the SST of feeding ground is significantly related to the CPUE in April during cold years(P<0.05), and this phenomenon may be related to the Kuroshio enhancement in April. The SST of feeding ground is also significantly related to the CPUE in November during warm years(P<0.05), and this phenomenon may be related to the reduction of SST in November. It is also found that the forecasting modelsbetween CPUE and SST in the feeding ground during April and November are built, which is significant in statistics(P<0.05). During the PDO cold times (the year of 2012) and PDO warm times (the year of 2014), the relative error between CPUE predicted value and actual value is 14.03% and -16.26%, respectively, which have better fitting effect. The research shows that under different climate condition, the environmental factors used to forecast abundance index of Cololabis saira different. It is concluded that the forecasting model of abundance index can be used for the operation in the Cololabis saira fishery.
- Northwest Pacific,
- Cololabis saira,
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation,
- sea surface temperature,
- resource abundance

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References(15)

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