Research and applications on multi-model ensemble numerical typhoon surge forecast technology

WANG Peitao; YU Fujiang; LIU Qiuxing; DONG Jianxi

doi:10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2013.03.007

Article Contents

Article Navigation > Haiyang Xuebao > 2013 > 35(3): 56-64

WANG Peitao, YU Fujiang, LIU Qiuxing, DONG Jianxi. Research and applications on multi-model ensemble numerical typhoon surge forecast technology[J]. Haiyang Xuebao, 2013, 35(3): 56-64. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2013.03.007

Citation:

WANG Peitao, YU Fujiang, LIU Qiuxing, DONG Jianxi. Research and applications on multi-model ensemble numerical typhoon surge forecast technology[J]. Haiyang Xuebao, 2013, 35(3): 56-64. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2013.03.007

Citation:

PDF( 6031 KB)

Research and applications on multi-model ensemble numerical typhoon surge forecast technology

doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2013.03.007

1.
National Marine Environment Forecasting Center, Beijing 100081, China
2.
National Marine Environment Forecasting Center, Beijing 100081, China;Key Laboratory of Research on Marine Hazards Forecasting, National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, State Oceanic Administration, Beijing 100081, China

Received Date: 2011-09-07
Rev Recd Date: 2012-09-18

Abstract

Abstract

The accuracy of typhoon surge numerical forecasting results mainly depends on the precision of forecasted Typhoon tracks and intensity,but also the precision of storm surge forecast model. Currently, the errors for 24/48 h typhoon forecasted tracks are about 120/210 km.The errors were large for some typhoons with abnormal tracks. The reliability of storm surge forecasting results can not be guaranteed relying solely on single Typhoon track and single-class numerical Typhoon surge forecast models. Multi-grids method can smooth different frequency deviation components in order to accelerate iteration convergence and improve precision by iterative computations among coarse grid and finer grid. A multi-model ensemble numerical typhoon surge forecast system was implemented based on high resolution and refine storm surge ensemble numerical forecast models in this paper. In do so, it can reduce genetic probability for single-class model generating similar errors. The system was valid by testing with typical typhoon surge events which impact China coasts. The results indicate that this technology improves the effects of surge forecast effectively than using single ensemble model, and may be used in the future.
- typhoon surge,
- Multi-model,
- Ensemble numerical forecast,
- Multi-grids method

FullText(HTML)

References(12)

References

汤杰. 西北太平洋台风业务预报路径误差初步分析[C].第十五届全国热带气旋科学讨论会论文集,杭州:2009.

王培涛,于福江,等. 福建沿海精细化台风风暴潮集合数值预报技术研究及应用[J].海洋预报,2010,27(5):7-15.

付翔,董剑希,等. 0814号强台风"黑格比"风暴潮分析与数值模拟[J].海洋预报,2009,26(4):68-75.

Epstein E S. Stochastic dynamic prediction[J].Tellus,1969,21:739-759.

Leith C E. Theoretical skill of Monte Carlo forecasts[J]. Mon Wea Rev,1974,102:409-418.

Stensrud D J, Bao J, Warner T. Using initial condition and model physics perturbation in short-range ensemble simulations of mesoscale connective system[J]. Mon Wea Rev,2000,128: 2077-2107.

Houtekamer P L, Lefaivre L, Derome J, et al. A system simulation approach to ensemble prediction[J].Mon Wea Rev,1996,124:1225-1242.

Blain C A,Westerink J J.The influence of domain size on the response characteristic of a hurricane storm surge model[J].Journal of Geophysical Research, 1994,99(9):18467-18479.

Blain C A,Westerink J J,Luettich J R R.Grid convergence studies for the prediction of hurricane storm surge[J].International Journal For Numerical Methods In Fluids,1998,26:369-401.

Bunya S,Westerink J J,Yoshimura S.Discontinuous boundary implementation for the shallow water equations[J].Int J Numer Meth Fluids,2005,47:1451-1468.

Toth Z, Zhu Y J, Marchock T. The use of ensemble to identify forecasts with small and large uncertainty[J]. Wea Forecasting,2001,16(8):463-477.

董剑希,付翔,吴玮,等. 中国海高分辨率业务化风暴潮模式的业务化预报检验[J].海洋预报, 2008, 25(2):11-17.

Relative Articles

Supplements(0)

Cited By

Proportional views