Study on the non-stationary characteristics of extreme storm surges along the Changjiang River Estuary

Xie Dongmei; Chen Yongping; Yu Qianqian; Sun Li; Pan Chonglun

doi:10.12284/hyxb2023099

Volume 45 Issue 7

Jul. 2023

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Xie Dongmei，Chen Yongping，Yu Qianqian, et al. Study on the non-stationary characteristics of extreme storm surges along the Changjiang River Estuary[J]. Haiyang Xuebao，2023, 45(7)：25–39 doi: 10.12284/hyxb2023099

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Study on the non-stationary characteristics of extreme storm surges along the Changjiang River Estuary

doi: 10.12284/hyxb2023099

Xie Dongmei^{1, 2, 3
,},
Chen Yongping^{2, 3
,
,},
Yu Qianqian^{2, 3},
Sun Li⁴,
Pan Chonglun⁴

1.
River and Harbor Engineering Department, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210029, China
2.
State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
3.
College of Harbour, Coastal and Offshore Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
4.
Shanghai Flood and Drought Disaster Prevention Technology Center, Shanghai 200050, China

Received Date: 2022-06-23
Rev Recd Date: 2023-02-08

Available Online: 2023-03-03

Publish Date: 2023-07-01

Abstract

Abstract

Under the background of global climate change, the extreme storm surge events caused by tropical cyclones in the Changjiang River Estuary and adjacent coastal area present non-stationary feature. In this study, a storm surge model for the Changjiang River Estuary was constructed using the ADCIRC model to reproduce the storm surges during 241 tropical cyclones affecting the Changjiang River Estuary from 1979 to 2019. By combining the non-stationary generalized extreme value distribution with the state space approach, a statistical model for capturing the non-stationarity of extreme storm surges was built to investigate the spatiotemporal variability of the extreme storm surges in the Changjiang River Estuary and its adjacent coastal area. The statistical model can well reproduce the non-stationary feature of extreme storm surges, which was mainly represented by the time-dependent location parameter. The time-dependent location parameters at the tidal gauge stations were stationary before 2008 and presented increasing trends afterwards, which was mainly caused by the increase of the annual second- and third-largest storm surges. The reoccurrence period of storm surge event with 100-year return period under the stationary assumption was reduced to around 40–80 years, indicating an increased flood risk in the Changjiang River Estuary. Combined with the changes in the intensity and path of the tropical cyclones that caused the annual second- and third-largest storm surges, it was concluded that the increasing trends of extreme storm surges were mainly caused by the increase in the intensity of the tropical cyclone that tracking northward to the offshore of the Changjiang River Estuary and veering eastwards.
- the Changjiang River Estuary,
- extreme storm surges,
- non-stationary variation,
- extreme value statistics,
- state space model

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References(60)

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