Analysis of the influence of environmental factors on the distribution of occasional species in the Haizhou Bay based on species distribution model

Zhang Tao; Zhao Tianya; Luan Jing; Zhang Yunlei; Zhang Chongliang

doi:10.12284/hyxb2023078

Volume 45 Issue 7

Jul. 2023

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Zhang Tao，Zhao Tianya，Luan Jing, et al. Analysis of the influence of environmental factors on the distribution of occasional species in the Haizhou Bay based on species distribution model[J]. Haiyang Xuebao，2023, 45(7)：69–78 doi: 10.12284/hyxb2023078

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Analysis of the influence of environmental factors on the distribution of occasional species in the Haizhou Bay based on species distribution model

doi: 10.12284/hyxb2023078

Zhang Tao^{1, 2
,},
Zhao Tianya^{1, 2},
Luan Jing^{1, 2},
Zhang Yunlei^{1, 2},
Zhang Chongliang^{1, 2
,
,}

1.
Fisheries College, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266003, China
2.
Field Observation and Research Station of Haizhou Bay Fishery Ecosystem, Ministry of Education, Qingdao 266003, China

Received Date: 2022-09-23
Rev Recd Date: 2023-02-20

Available Online: 2023-08-03

Publish Date: 2023-07-01

Abstract

Abstract

Occasional species are vulnerable to external threats such as environmental changes and human activities and have important values in biodiversity conservation. However, due to their limited availability of data and associated difficulties in statistical analysis, there are few studies on the spatial distribution and their relationships with environmental factors. In this study, based on the fishery resource surveys in the Haizhou Bay conducted from 2013 to 2019, we analyzed the relationships between the distribution and environmental factors for three occasional species, Coilia mystus, Odontamblyopus rubicundus and Erisphex pottii, using generalized additive model (GAM) and random forest (RF) model. The models were compared according to their goodness of fit and the predictive performances were evaluated using cross-validation. The results showed that depth was the most significant factor affecting the distribution of C. mystus and O. rubicundus in spring and autumn, the sea bottom temperature was the most important environmental factor influencing the distribution of E. pottii in autumn. The distribution model of C. mystus had the highest deviance explanation, followed by O. rubicundus, and E. pottii had the lowest deviance explanation. The deviance explanation by the distribution models of C. mystus, O. rubicundus and E. pottii were all lower in spring than in autumn. The cross-validation showed that the area under the curve (AUC) of the three species ranged from 0.70 to 0.85, and only the AUC of C. mystus reached 0.9 in autumn; meanwhile, the AUC of the GAM prediction results were larger than those of the RF model, indicating that the prediction performance of the GAM was better than that of the RF model for the occasional species. This study would provide a reference for the selection of models for future studies of occasional species, and have guiding significance for the conservation of the occasional species.
- Haizhou Bay,
- occasional species,
- generalized additive model (GAM),
- random forest (RF) model,
- cross-validation

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