Projectied longterm trend of the Southeast Indian subantarctic mode water under climate change scenarios

Qiu Zishan; Xu Tengfei; Wei Zexun; Nie Xunwei

doi:10.12284/hyxb2021127

Volume 43 Issue 11

Dec. 2021

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Qiu Zishan，Xu Tengfei，Wei Zexun, et al. Projectied longterm trend of the Southeast Indian subantarctic mode water under climate change scenarios[J]. Haiyang Xuebao，2021, 43(11)：1–21 doi: 10.12284/hyxb2021127

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Projectied longterm trend of the Southeast Indian subantarctic mode water under climate change scenarios

doi: 10.12284/hyxb2021127

Qiu Zishan^{1, 2, 3, 4
,},
Xu Tengfei^{1, 2, 3, 4
,
,},
Wei Zexun^{1, 2, 3, 4},
Nie Xunwei^{1, 2, 3, 4}

1.
Frist Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources, Qingdao 266061, China
2.
Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling, Ministry of Natural Resources, Qingdao 266001, China
3.
Shandong Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling, Qingdao 266061, China
4.
Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling, Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (Qingdao), Qingdao 266237, China

Received Date: 2020-12-04
Rev Recd Date: 2021-01-26

Available Online: 2021-08-12

Publish Date: 2021-12-31

Abstract

Abstract

Based on the outputs of eight earth system models involved in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), this study assessed the simulation skill of the Southeast Indian subantarctic mode water (SEISAMW) of these models by comparing with observations. Moreover, this study investigated the projected long-term trends in subduction rate, volume and properties of the SEISAMW under medium and high greenhouse gas emission scenarios (i.e., SSP245, SSP585). The results show that the CMIP6 models generally have produced artificially greater mixed layer depth and smaller upper layer potential density in comparison with those of the Argo observation. Consequently, the simulated SEISAMW in the CMIP6 models are generally with larger subduction rate and smaller potential density. Meanwhile, the subduction regions of the SEISAMWs show significant differences among the analyzed CMIP6 models, which are attribute to lateral induction in the mixed layer. Furthermore, in the historical, SSP245 and SSP585 outputs, the SEISAMWs show consistent decreasing trends in subduction rate and volume, increasing trend in temperature, and decreasing trends in salinity and potential density. The long-term trends of the SEISAMWs are largest under SSP585 scenario, followed by the SSP245 scenario and historical simulation. The projected trends of SEISAMW can be explained by the following mechanism: the temperature and freshwater flux in the southeastern Indian Ocean upper layer tend to increase under enhanced radioactive forcing, resulting in shoaling in mixed layer and flattening of the mixed layer gradient. As a result, the trends of SEISAMWs in subduction rate, volume and water properties show larger values in accordance with stronger radioactive forcing.
- CMIP6,
- Southeast Indian Ocean,
- subantarctic mode water,
- subduction rate,
- climate change,
- scenario experiments

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References

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