气候变化影响下中国近海右侧环胺藻 (<i>Azadinium</i> <i>dexteroporum</i>) 潜在分布区变化研究

刘璇; 罗肇河; 金睿; 刘锦荃; 苏尚柯; 康建华; 胡灯进; 张伟妮; 胡文佳

气候变化影响下中国近海右侧环胺藻 (Azadinium dexteroporum) 潜在分布区变化研究

刘璇^{1, 2,},
罗肇河^{2, 3},
金睿⁴,
刘锦荃²,
苏尚柯²,
康建华²,
胡灯进⁵,
张伟妮¹,
胡文佳^2, ,

1.
海水养殖生物育种全国重点实验室，福建省海洋生物技术重点实验室，福建农林大学海洋学院，福州 350002
2.
自然资源部第三海洋研究所，厦门 361005
3.
厦门理工学院，厦门 361024
4.
汕头大学海洋灾害预警与防护广东省重点实验室，汕头，515063
5.
福建海洋研究所，厦门 361013

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金（42576260）；福建省自然科学基金（2024J02023）；国家重点研发计划（2019YFE0124700）；国家自然科学基金（42276219）。

详细信息

作者简介:
刘璇（2001—），女，山东省菏泽市人，研究方向为渔业发展。Ｅ-mail： liuxuan412@163.com

通讯作者:
胡文佳（1984—），女，正高级工程师，研究方向海洋空间生态学。E-mail：huwenjia@tio.org.cn

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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2025-10-11
- 修回日期: 2025-12-16
- 网络出版日期: 2026-01-06

Projected Changes of the Potential Distribution of Azadinium dexteroporum in Chinese Coastal Waters under Climate Change

Liu Xuan^{1, 2
,},
Luo Zhaohe^{2, 3},
Jin Rui⁴,
Liu Jinquan²,
Su Shangke²,
Kang Jianhua²,
Hu Dengjin⁵,
Zhang Weini¹,
Hu Wenjia^{2
, ,}

1.
State Key Laboratory of Mariculture Breeding, Fujian Key Laboratory of Marine Biotechnology, College of Marine Sciences, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou, Fujian 350002, China
2.
Third Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources, Xiamen 361005, China
3.
Xiamen Institute of Technology, Xiamen, 361024, China
4.
Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Marine Disaster Prediction and Prevention, Shantou University, Shantou 515063, China
5.
Fujian Institute of Oceanography, Xiamen 361013, China

摘要

摘要: 产毒藻类对生态环境安全和人类健康具有重大威胁，右侧环胺藻(Azadinium dexteroporum)是氮杂螺环酸毒素的主要产毒种之一，但我国对该物种的研究十分稀缺，其在中国近海的分布仍然不明。本研究通过环境DNA方法获取右侧环胺藻在中国近海的分布记录，以2050年代和2100年代为未来预测节点，采用最大熵模型模拟了该物种在当前及未来三种气候情景（SSP126、SSP245和SSP585情景）下的潜在适生区变化。结果显示，硝酸盐浓度、硅酸盐浓度、海表温度为右侧环胺藻分布的主要限制因子。现状情景下，该物种适生区面积为63.71×10⁴ km²，集中分布于南海北部。随着气候变化右侧环胺藻潜在适生区可能呈现缩减的趋势，2100年代潜在适生区面积将减少至5.58×10⁴ km²～32.21×10⁴ km²。右侧环胺藻的适生区空间格局整体呈现“南缩北扩”趋势，南海的大面积适生区将消失，但在黄渤海区域将出现新的适生区。其适生区质心迁移距离最远可达1439 km，从南海北部迁移至长江口以北。研究结果为有害甲藻的生态风险监控、预测和管理提供了重要科学依据。
- 右侧环胺藻 /
- 最大熵模型 /
- 气候情景 /
- 潜在适生区 /
- 环境DNA
Abstract: Toxic algal species pose significant threats to ecological environmental safety and human health. Azadinium dexteroporum, one of the main producers of azaspiracid toxins, remains poorly studied in China, and its distribution in Chinese coastal waters is still unclear. In this study, environmental DNA (eDNA) methods were used to obtain occurrence records of A. dexteroporum in Chinese coastal areas. Using the 2050s and 2100s as future projection periods, the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt)model was applied to simulate the potential suitable habitats of this species under current and three future climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585). The results indicated that nitrate concentration, silicate concentration, and sea surface temperature were the primary environmental factors influencing the distribution of A. dexteroporum. Under current conditions, the suitable habitat area was estimated to be 63.71 × 10⁴ km², mainly concentrated in the northern South China Sea. With climate change, the potential suitable area of A. dexteroporum is projected to shrink, decreasing to 5.58×10⁴ km²～32.21×10⁴ km² by the 2100s. The spatial distribution pattern of suitable habitats shows an overall “southward contraction and northward expansion” trend: the extensive suitable areas in the South China Sea are expected to disappear, while new suitable areas may emerge in the Yellow and Bohai Seas. The centroid of suitable habitats is projected to shift up to 1,439 km, migrating from the northern South China Sea to north of the Yangtze River estuary. These findings provide important scientific insights for the ecological risk monitoring, forecasting, and management of harmful dinoflagellates.
- Azadinium dexteroporum /
- MaxEnt model /
- climate scenario /
- potential suitable habitat /
- eDNA

HTML全文

图 1 采样站点及右侧环胺藻在中国近海的分布记录

注：本文所有地图基于自然资源部标准地图服务网站GS(2024)0650号标准底图制作，底图边界无修改

Fig. 1 Sampling Sites and Dstibution records of Azadinium dexteroporum along the costal China

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图 2 参数组合及最优参数选择

Fig. 2 Parameter settings and optimization

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图 3 环境变量重要性及其与右侧环胺藻生境适宜性之间的响应关系

Fig. 3 The importance of environmental variables and their response relationship with the habitat suitability of Azadinium dexteroporum

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图 4 右侧环胺藻不同情景下的生境适宜性

Fig. 4 Habitat suitability of Azadinium dexteroporum under different scenarios

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图 5 右侧环胺藻潜在适生区在不同气候情景下的分布

Fig. 5 Distribution of potential suitable habitat of Azadinium dexteroporum under different climate scenarios

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图 6 右侧环胺藻潜在适生区空间格局变化

Fig. 6 Spatial pattern changes of the potential suitable habitat of Azadinium dexteroporum

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表 1 环境变量列表

Tab. 1 List of environment variables

环境变量	数据来源	变量单位
海水温度 Ocean temperature	www.bio-oracle.org	℃
盐度 Salinity	www.bio-oracle.org	psu
初级生产力 Primary productivity	www.bio-oracle.org	mmol/m³
硝酸盐 Nitrate	www.bio-oracle.org	mmol/m³
磷酸盐 Phosphate	www.bio-oracle.org	mmol/m³
溶解氧 Dissolved molecular oxygen	www.bio-oracle.org	mmol/m³
叶绿素 Chlorophyll	www.bio-oracle org	mg/m³
硅酸盐 Silicate	www.bio-oracle.org	mmol/m³
离岸距离 Distance from land	www.globalfishingwatch.com	km

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表 2 右侧环胺藻适生区面积收缩变化及质心迁移表

Tab. 2 Changes in the suitable habitat area and centroid migration of Azadinium dexteroporum.

情景	当前适生区面积（×10⁴ km²）	未来适生区面积（×10⁴ km²）	稳定区面积（×10⁴ km²）	收缩区面积（×10⁴ km²）	扩张区面积（×10⁴ km²）	不适宜区面积（×10⁴ km²）	质心迁移距离（km）
2050年代SSP126	63.71	24.15	16.56	47.16	7.59	528.57	500.64
2050年代SSP245	63.71	21.12	13.78	49.93	7.33	528.83	525.32
2050年代SSP585	63.71	10.74	7.10	56.61	3.63	532.53	587.04
2100年代SSP126	63.71	32.21	15.03	48.69	17.18	518.98	259.90
2100年代SSP245	63.71	5.58	2.23	61.49	3.35	532.81	852.35
2100年代SSP585	63.71	14.17	1.39	62.33	12.79	523.38	1439.17

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