人类活动对长江口南汇边滩演变的驱动效应

李宇涵; 郭兴杰; 李林江; 陆雪骏

人类活动对长江口南汇边滩演变的驱动效应

1.
上海海洋大学海洋科学学院，上海 201306
2.
上海市自然资源调查利用研究院，上海 200072
3.
中国气象局上海台风研究所，上海 200030
4.
上海市海洋管理事务中心，上海 200124

基金项目: 上海市大学生创新训练计划项目；上海市地质之星人才计划项目（Dzxh202206）。

详细信息

作者简介:
李宇涵，男，2005年生。本科，滩涂地形演化研究

通讯作者:
郭兴杰，男，1986年生。高工，主要从事河口海岸动力地貌演化研究。E-mail：tjguoxingjie@126.com

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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2024-12-02
- 修回日期: 2025-04-03
- 网络出版日期: 2025-05-20

The driving effect of human activities on the evolution of the Nanhui Shoal in the Yangtze River estuary

1.
School of Marine Science, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306 China
2.
Shanghai Institute of Natural Resources Investigation and Utilization, Shanghai 200072 China
3.
Shanghai Typhoon Research Institute of China Meteorological Administration, Shanghai 200030
4.
Shanghai Marine Management Affairs Center, Shanghai 200124

摘要

摘要: 两千年来长江口南岸基本呈“边滩推展”的演变趋势，基本以每40年约1 km的速度向海淤涨发育，是上海最重要的土地增长区和潮滩湿地资源，研究意义重大。本文基于1958～2019年南汇边滩冲淤特征、等深线变化及滩涂迁移速率等指标研究了南汇边滩近60年来的演变特征，通过时空对比探讨了其增长方式、驱动因素和发展趋势。结果表明：(1) 1958～2019年间南汇边滩呈“缓慢淤积−快速淤积−近淤远冲−全面侵蚀”四个阶段性变化，此阶段内最快淤涨和侵蚀速率分别为460 m/a和270 m/a。(2) 人类活动已经成为了影响长江口南汇边滩演变的主要控制因素，其中流域拦河筑坝、长江口分汊口控制工程、边滩围垦造陆、航道疏浚采砂等变化性因素极大的影响了南汇边滩的演变，其中边滩围垦造陆与地形演化的相关性较强，相关系数达0.73。(3) 随着国家和上海对围填海的严格管控，未来南汇边滩将逐步达到新的冲淤平衡，建议尽早研究河口潮滩湿地的保护和治理措施，以应对未来可能出现的岸带灾害。
- 长江口 /
- 南汇边滩 /
- 人类活动 /
- 淤涨 /
- 侵蚀 /
- 工程
Abstract: For the past two thousand years, the southern bank of the Yangtze River estuary has basically shown an evolutionary trend of "Shoal extension", with a rate of about 1 km of siltation and development towards the sea every 40 years. It is the most important land growth area and tidal wetland resource in Shanghai, and the research significance is significant. This paper studies the evolution characteristics of Nanhui Shoal in the past 60 years based on indicators such as scouring and silting characteristics, isobath changes and mudflat migration rate from 1958 to 2019, and discusses its growth mode, driving factors and development trend through space-time comparison. The results showed that: (1) From 1958 to 2019, the Nanhuibian Shoal exhibited four stages of gradual siltation, rapid siltation, near siltation and far erosion, and comprehensive erosion. During this stage, the fastest siltation and erosion rates were 460 m/a and 270 m/a, respectively. (2) Human activities have become the main controlling factors affecting the evolution of the Nanhui Shoal at the mouth of the Yangtze River. Among them, variable factors such as watershed dam construction, Yangtze River estuary bifurcation control engineering, Shoal reclamation and land reclamation, and channel dredging and sand mining have greatly affected the evolution of the Nanhui Shoal. The correlation between Shoal reclamation and terrain evolution is strong, with a correlation coefficient of 0.73. (3) With the strict control of land reclamation by the government and Shanghai, the Nanhui Beach will gradually reach a new balance of erosion and deposition in the future. It is recommended to study the protection and management measures of estuarine tidal wetlands as soon as possible to cope with possible coastal disasters in the future.
- Yangtze River estuary /
- Nanhui Shoal /
- human activity /
- siltation and swelling /
- erosion /
- engineering

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图 1 长江河口整体格局和南汇边滩现状

a. 研究区位置；b. 长江口整体格局(2013年数据制作)；c. 南汇边滩三维地貌(采用2013年数据)

Fig. 1 Overall pattern of the Yangtze River estuary and current status of the Nanhui Shoal

a. Location of the research area; b. The overall pattern of the Yangtze River estuary (2013 data); c. 3D Landform of Nanhui Shoal (2013 Data)

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图 2 南汇边滩周围工程信息

Fig. 2 Engineering information around Nanhui Shoal

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图 3 南汇边滩地形演变特征

a. 1958～1983；b. 1983～1997；c. 1997～2002；d. 2002～2007；e. 2007～2013；f. 2013～2019

Fig. 3 Topographic evolution characteristics of Nanhui Shoal

a. 1958～1983; b. 1983～1997; c. 1997～2002; d. 2002～2007; e. 2007～2013; f. 2013～2019

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图 4 南汇边滩等深线变化

−2 m等深线变化：a. 1958～1997；b. 1997～2007；c. 2007～2019； −5 m等深线变化：d. 1958～1997；e. 1997～2007；f. 2007～2019

Fig. 4 Changes in the isobath of Nanhui Shoal

−2 m isobath variation: a. 1958～1997; b. 1997～2007; c. 2007～2019; −5 m isobath variation: d. 1958～1997; e. 1997～2007; f. 2007～2019

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图 5 南汇边滩−5 m等深线迁移量

a. 南汇东滩1958～1997年−5 m等深线净迁移量；b. 南汇南滩1958～1997年−5 m等深线净迁移量，淤涨为正值，侵蚀为负值

Fig. 5 Migration of Nanhui Shoal −5 m isobath

a. Net migration of the −5 m isobath at Nanhui East Shoal from 1958 to 1997; b. Net migration of the −5 m isobath from 1958 to 1997, Siltation is positive, erosion is negative

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图 6 流域输水输沙、河口圈围工程及分水分沙

a. 不同阶段长江流域输沙水沙变化及年均值；b. 南汇边滩地形冲淤厚度；c. 南汇边滩圈围面积；d. 输沙量和地形变化相关性分析；e. 圈围面积和地形变化相关性分析；f. 1998～2019年南槽分水分沙比；g. 2019年长江口三级分叉分水比

Fig. 6 Watershed water and sediment transport, estuary enclosure projects, and water and sediment separation

a. Changes in sediment transport and annual mean values in the Yangtze River Basin at different stages; b. The thickness of erosion and deposition in the terrain of Nanhui Shoal; c. Nanhui Shoal Circle Area; d. Correlation analysis between sediment transport volume and terrain changes; e. Correlation analysis between the area enclosed by the E-circle and terrain changes; f. Water and sand ratio in the southern trough from 1998 to 2019; g. The water splitting ratio of the third level bifurcation of the Yangtze River estuary in 2019

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表 1 南汇边滩主要工程信息

Tab. 1 Engineering information of Nanhui Shoal

区域编号	工程名称	面积/ km²	工程时间	工程信息
①	人工半岛一期	7.3	1994～ 1999	促淤成陆
②	浦东国际机场工程	10.0	1996～ 1999	促淤成陆
③	临港世纪塘	3.2	1998～ 2000	促淤成陆
④	南汇东滩促淤圈围一期	39.20	1999～ 2000	促淤成陆
⑤	南汇东滩促淤圈围二期	33.87	2000～ 2001	促淤成陆
⑥	人工半岛二期	33.00	2004～ 2006	促淤成陆
⑦	机场外侧圈围	15.67	2007～ 2009	促淤成陆
N1～N3； S1～S3	南汇东滩促淤整治一期	104.70	2013～ 2014	堤坝总长约67.40 km
S4～S6	南汇东滩促淤整治二期	42.30	2016～ 2017	堤坝总长约19.10 km
N1	N1库区消纳工程	14.67	2013～ 2017	促淤泥沙体积约1933×10⁴ m³

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表 2 2007～2023年的水深测量信息

Tab. 2 Depth measurement information from 2007 to 2023

年份	每平方公里内测点密度	临近测点的间距/km
1958；1983；1997；2002；2007	3～8
2013；2019	20～31	1～1.5

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表 3 基于海塘建设推算岸线迁移速率，部分数据统计于^[8]

Tab. 3 Calculates the shoreline migration rate based on seawall construction, with some data collected in ^[8]

海塘名称	建设时间/年	海塘间距/km	间隔时间/年	迁移速度/(m/a)
古瀚海塘	713
里护塘	1172	16.00	459	34.86
钦公塘	1584	1.40	412	3.40
彭公塘	1884	7.20	300	24.00
人民塘	1960	3.14	76	41.32
胜利塘	1974	0.81	14	57.86
七九塘	1979	0.53	5	106.00
世纪塘	1994～2006	4.07	15～27	211.04
南汇东滩促淤整治工程堤坝	2013～2017	6.42	7～23	598.14

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