基于贝叶斯网络分析环境因素对马达加斯加西海岸捕虾拖网CPUE的影响

胡雪; 张鸿霖; 赵津; 罗家望; 宋厚成; 张健; 唐浩; 石建高

基于贝叶斯网络分析环境因素对马达加斯加西海岸捕虾拖网CPUE的影响

胡雪^1,,
张鸿霖¹,
赵津²,
罗家望¹,
宋厚成¹,
张健^{1, 3, 4, ,},
唐浩^{1, 3, 4},
石建高⁵

1.
上海海洋大学海洋生物资源与管理学院，上海 201306
2.
中渔环球海洋食品有限责任公司驻马达加斯加代表处，广东深圳 515100
3.
上海海洋大学，国家远洋渔业工程技术研究中心，上海 201306
4.
上海海洋大学，大洋渔业资源可持续开发教育部重点实验室，上海 201306
5.
中国水产科学研究院东海水产研究所，上海 200090

基金项目: 国家重点研发计划项目（2024YFD2400200）；国家自然科学基金（32373187）；农业农村部全球重要鱼种资源动态监测评估项目。

详细信息

作者简介:
胡雪（2002—），女，湖南省常德市，硕士研究生在读，从事渔业海洋学研究，E-mail：19173623507@163.com

通讯作者:
张健，男，教授，从事生态型渔具渔法研究，E-mail: j-zhang@shou.edu.cn

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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2024-11-22
- 修回日期: 2025-03-13
- 网络出版日期: 2025-04-23

Effect of environmental factors on CPUE of shrimp trawls along the west coast of Madagascar based on Bayesian networks

Hu Xue^1
,,
Zhang Honglin¹,
Zhao Jin²,
Luo Jiawang¹,
Song Houcheng¹,
Zhang Jian^{1, 3, 4
, ,},
Tang Hao^{1, 3, 4},
Shi Jiangao⁵

1.
College of Marine Living Resource Sciences and Management, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China
2.
Representative office in Madagascar, Zhongyu Global Seafood Corp., Guangdong, Shenzhen 515100, China
3.
National Engineering Research Centre for Oceanic Fisheries, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China
4.
Key Laboratory of Sustainable Exploitation of Oceanic Fisheries Resources, Ministry of Education, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China
5.
East China Sea Fisheries Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Fishery Sciences, Shanghai 200090, China

摘要

摘要: 研究渔业资源与环境因子的关系，并了解种群分布对环境变化的响应机制，是养护渔业资源、实现渔业可持续发展的基础。渔业资源丰度和种群分布受多种环境因素影响，但目前的研究更多关注环境因素的直接影响，较少考虑环境因素间的相互作用。为了探索不同环境因素对马达加斯加西海岸虾类资源量的影响机制与路径，本研究使用2014−2020年该海域捕虾拖网数据，采用贝叶斯网络分析了降水、径流等海洋环境因子与3种主捕虾类单位捕捞努力量渔获量（catch per unite effort，CPUE）之间的网络关系，探索在多种环境因子影响下3种虾类CPUE的潜在驱动因素。研究结果表明：降水、径流、海面高度距平（sea surface height anomaly，SSHA）和海表面温度（sea surface temperature，SST）是影响印度白虾CPUE的主要因素，径流、SSHA、 SST和叶绿素a浓度（chlorophyll a concentration，Chl-a）是影响独角新对虾和短沟对虾的CPUE的主要因素；降水通过不同路径影响其它环境因子进而对3种虾类CPUE产生间接影响：降水通过径流、SST和SSHA的途径对印度白虾产生间接影响，但对于独角新对虾和短沟对虾，降水通过径流、SST、SSHA和Chl-a的途径产生间接影响。研究结果揭示了马达加斯加西海岸降水和其它海洋环境因子不仅对3种虾类CPUE产生直接影响，降水还能通过影响其它环境因子对虾类种群资源变动的间接影响途径和机制。
- 贝叶斯网络 /
- 环境因子 /
- 虾类 /
- CPUE /
- 降水 /
- 径流
Abstract: Investigating the relationship between fishery resources and environmental factors, along with understanding species distribution response mechanisms to environmental changes, provides fundamental insights for fisheries conservation and sustainable management. While both resource abundance and species distribution are influenced by multiple environmental factors, existing research has primarily emphasized direct environmental effects, with insufficient attention to inter-factor interactions. This study examines the mechanisms through which diverse environmental factors affect shrimp resources along Madagascar's western coast, utilizing shrimp trawl fishery data (2014−2020) and Bayesian network analysis to investigate relationships between precipitation, runoff, marine environmental factors, and catch per unit effort (CPUE) of three key shrimp species. Our analysis identified critical drivers of CPUE variation under combined environmental influences. Results demonstrated that precipitation, runoff, sea surface height anomaly (SSHA), and sea surface temperature (SST) predominantly influenced Fenneropenaeus indicus CPUE. For Metapenaeus monoceros and Penaeus semisulcatus, runoff, SSHA, SST, and chlorophyll-a concentration (Chl-a) constituted primary controlling factors. Precipitation exerted indirect effects on all species' CPUE through environmental mediators: impacting F. indicus via runoff-SST-SSHA pathways, while influencing M. monoceros and P. semisulcatus through runoff-SST-SSHA-Chl-a interactions. These findings clarify both direct effects of precipitation and marine environmental factors on shrimp CPUE, and reveal cascading indirect impacts where precipitation modulates population dynamics through environmental intermediaries, elucidating pathway mechanisms underlying these ecological relationships.
- bayesian networks /
- environmental factors /
- shrimp /
- CPUE /
- precipitation /
- runoff

HTML全文

图 1 2014–2020年马达加斯加西海岸捕虾拖网渔场及CPUE分布

Fig. 1 Spatial distribution of fishing ground and CPUEs of shrimp trawl fisheries in west coast of Madagascar from 2014 to 2020

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图 2 简单的有向无环图（DAG）示例

Fig. 2 A simple example of a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG)

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图 3 2014–2020年降水和海洋环境变量与马达加斯加西海岸主捕虾类的CPUE之间可能存在的关系

Fig. 3 Potential relationships between precipitation and ocean environmental variables with the CPUE of major shrimp species along the west coast of Madagascar from 2014 to 2020

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图 4 2014–2020年马达加斯加西海岸3种虾类CPUE和环境变量的月平均变化

a. 印度白虾CPUE（WCPUE）; b. 独角新对虾CPUE（BCPUE）; c. 短沟对虾CPUE（TCPUE）; d. 降水; e. 径流; f. 海表面温度; g. 海表面高度异常; h. 叶绿素-a

Fig. 4 Monthly average variations in CPUE of three shrimp species and environmental variables along the west coast of Madagascar from 2014 to 2020

a. Fenneropenaeus indicus CPUE (WCPUE); b. Metapenaeus monoceros CPUE (BCPUE); c. Penaeus semisulcatus CPUE (TCPUE); d. Precipitation; e. Runoff; f. SST; g. SSHA; h. Chl-a

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图 5 所有变量之间的皮尔逊相关图

Fig. 5 Pearson correlation plot between all variables

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图 6 3种虾类的贝叶斯网络图（有向无环图及条件概率表，蓝色、红色箭头分别代表正显著和负显著关系）

a. WCPUE（印度白虾）＜10; b. WCPUE（印度白虾）≥10; c. BCPUE（独角新对虾）＜10; d. BCPUE（独角新对虾）≥10; e. TCPUE（短沟对虾）＜5; f. TCPUE（短沟对虾）≥5

Fig. 6 Bayesian Network of three shrimp species (DAGs and CPTs, blue and red arrows represent positive and negative significance relationship respectively)

a. WCPUE(F. indicus)＜10; b. WCPUE(F. indicus)≥10; c. BCPUE(M. monoceros)＜10; d. BCPUE(M. monoceros)≥10; e. TCPUE(P. semisulcatus)＜5; f. TCPUE(P. semisulcatus)≥5

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表 1 环境变量的描述性统计

Tab. 1 Descriptive statistics of environment variables

环境变量 Variable	均值 Mean	标准差 SD	最大值 Max.	最小值 Min.
降水 Precipitation/(mm∙d⁻¹)	1.18	2.44	15.03	0
径流 Runoff/(kg∙m⁻²)	0.40	0.98	5.31	0
海表面温度 SST/℃	27.54	1.63	30.82	23.72
海面高度异常 SSHA/cm	0.06	0.05	0.34	−0.11
叶绿素a浓度 Chl-a/(mg∙L⁻¹)	1.80	1.69	11.38	0.10

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表 2 所有变量及其离散化区间

Tab. 2 All variables and their discretization intervals

降水 Precipitation/ (mm∙d⁻¹)	径流 Runoff/ (kg∙m^-2)	海表面温度 SST/℃	海表面高度异常 SSHA/cm	叶绿素-a Chl-a/ (mg∙L⁻¹)	印度白虾 WCPUE/ (kg∙h⁻¹)	独角新对虾 BCPUE/ (kg∙h⁻¹)	短沟对虾 TCPUE/ (kg∙h⁻¹)
x=0	x=0	x<27	x<0	x<3	x<10	x<10	x<5
x>0	x>0	x≥27	x≥0	x≥3	x≥10	x≥10	x≥5

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