Development and evaluation of a regional high-resolution coupled ocean-sea ice-ecosystem model for the Ross Sea, Antarctica
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摘要: 深入理解低营养层生态系统对环境变化的响应机理是制定科学合理的海洋保护区规划、预测海洋生态系统未来演变的重要前提。数值模拟作为探究机理的有效工具之一，因其涉及多参数化过程，仍需持续优化与改进。本研究旨在发展并评估一套适用于南极罗斯海区域的高分辨率三维海洋-海冰-生态系统耦合模式（Ross Sea coupled Ocean-Sea ice-Ecosystem model，简称ROSE）。在系统梳理现有罗斯海生态模式发展的基础上，基于NEMOv3.6（version 3.6 of the Nucleus for European Modeling of the Ocean）海洋模式、LIM3（version 3 of the Louvain-la-Neuve Sea Ice Model）海冰模式和PISCESv2（the Pelagic Interactions Scheme for Carbon and Ecosystem Study - volume 2）海洋碳循环-生态模式构建了ROSE模式。通过对海冰动力学相关参数的系统调试，发现调整冰-海拖曳系数可显著提升ROSE模式对罗斯海典型生境特征—沿岸冰间湖的模拟效果。目前，基于ROSE模式已完成了2010–2020年的后报模拟，本文结合观测数据及已有研究成果，对ROSE模拟的海冰时空变化、海洋水文特征、溶解铁和叶绿素a浓度开展了较为细致的评估。结果表明，ROSE模式能够较为准确地再现上述关键状态变量的典型特征，具备进一步解析罗斯海近期环境变化驱动机制及低营养层生态过程响应规律的能力。
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关键词:
- 海洋-海冰-生态耦合模式 /
- 模式评估 /
- 罗斯海 /
- 南极
Abstract: Developing plans for marine protected areas and predicting future changes in marine ecosystems require improved understanding of the response of marine lower trophic levels to environmental changes. For this purpose, numerical models are useful tools while they require continual improvement because of the inclusion of multiple parameters. This study focuses on development and evaluation of a high-resolution three-dimensional coupled ocean, sea-ice and ecosystem model for the Ross Sea (abbr. ROSE). Based on learnings from reviewing the previously developed marine ecosystem models covering the Ross Sea, ROSE is developed using version 3.6 of the Nucleus for European Modeling of the Ocean, version 3 of the Louvain-la-Neuve Sea Ice Model, and the Pelagic Interactions Scheme for Carbon and Ecosystem Study (volume 2). A series tuning of the parameters related to ice dynamics has been carried out. The results suggest that tuning the ice-ocean drag coefficient leads to improved simulation of the coastal polynya, which is a distinct feature in the Ross Sea. A decade-long hindcast simulation, covering 2010–2020, is achieved. The simulated space-time variations of sea ice, ocean hydrography, dissolved iron and Chl-a concentrations are evaluated against available observations and previously published results. The evaluation results suggest that ROSE possesses reasonable skills in reproducing the known features of the above state variables and thus can be further applied to study the mechanism driving recent environmental changes and the response of lower trophic levels in the Ross Sea ecosystem.-
Key words:
- coupled ocean-sea ice-ecosystem model /
- model evaluation /
- Ross Sea /
- Antarctica
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图 1 罗斯海水深及5个航次观测站位示意图
来自NBP1310航次的断面a和NBP1201航次的断面b分别以绿线和红线标记。灰色线表示500、1000、2000和4000 m等深线。VL（Victoria Land）为维多利亚地，CI（Coulman Island）为库尔曼岛，AIT（Aviator ice tongue）为飞行员冰舌，TNB（Terry Nova Bay）为特拉诺瓦湾，DT（Drygalski Trough）为德里加尔斯基海槽，MB（Mawson Bank）为莫森浅滩，JT（Joides Trough）为卓艾德斯海槽，PB（Pennell Bank）为彭内尔浅滩，RI（Ross Island）为罗斯岛，IB（Iselin Bank）为伊斯林浅滩，GCT（Glomar Challenger Trough）为格洛玛挑战者海槽，HaB（Hayes Bank）为海斯浅滩，HoB（Houtz Bank）为霍茨浅滩，CC（Cape Colbeck）为科尔贝克角
Fig. 1 Bathymetry in the Ross Sea with locations of in-situ measurements from five cruises
Transects a and b from cruises of NBP1310 and NBP1201 are marked with green and red lines, respectively. Grey contours denote the 500, 1 000, 2 000, and 4 000 m isobaths. VL: Victoria Land, CI: Coulman Island, AIT: Aviator ice tongue, TNB: Terra Nova Bay, DT: Drygalski Trough, MB: Mawson Bank, JT: Joides Trough, PB: Pennnell Bank, RI: Ross Island, IB: Iselin Bank, GCT: Glomar Changer Trough, HaB: Hayes Bank, HoB: Houtz Bank, CC: Cape Colbeck
图 2 以LIM3中参数默认值（rn_cio = 5×10−3，rn_pstar = 2×104 N·m−2，rn_crhg = 20）20%为间隔，对（a）rn_cio，（b）rn_pstar和rn_crhg进行参数值调整的敏感实验
在图（a）中，红色条和蓝色条分别表示偏差和均方根误差；在图（b）中，黑色和圈内颜色表示偏差，蓝色数字表示均方根误差
Fig. 2 Sensitive experiments with varying (a) rn_cio, (b) rn_pstar and rn_crhg at an interval of 20% of their default values (rn_cio = 5×10−3, rn_pstar = 2×104 N m−2, rn_crhg = 20) used in LIM3
Red and blue bars in (a) and black (and color shading spots) and blue numbers in (b) indicate the bias and RMSE, respectively
图 3 ROSE模式生态模块示意图（改编自Zhang等[17]；缩写含义见正文）
Fig. 3 Schematic diagram of the ecology module in ROSE (Adapted from Zhang et al., 2023; Full meaning of abbreviations can be found in maintext)
图 4 2010–2010年罗斯海海冰覆盖面积（a）多年平均周年循环，（b）逐月变化，（c）12月的年际变化，以及（d–f）基于OSTIA，ROSE和SOSE多年平均的12月海冰密集度的空间分布
Fig. 4 (a) Annual cycle of multi-year averaged, (b) monthly time series, and (c) yearly variations of December sea ice area over 2010–2010 in the Ross Sea. Spatial distribution of December sea ice concentration based on (d) OSTIA, (e) ROSE and (f) SOSE
图 5 航次观测数据及与之时空对应的ROSE模式结果的（a）温度和（b）盐度的泰勒图，（c）航次观测和（d）ROSE模式水深2 000 m以浅的温盐点聚图，沿断面a（见图1）的（e）温度和（f）盐度垂直分布
在图（a）和（b）中，红色文本标注了模式温度和盐度的偏差范围。图（c–d）中散点颜色表示水深，黑色实线为中性密度28.00和28.27 kg m−3，蓝色虚线为海水冰点。图（e–f）中背景颜色为ROSE模拟结果，散点为NBP1310航次观测数据，红色虚线框区域表示OSTIA反演的12月冰间湖（海冰密集度SIC < 25%）
Fig. 5 Taylor diagrams of (a) temperature and (b) salinity between cruise measurements and corresponding model results. Potential temperature-salinity scatter plot based on (c) cruise measurements and (d) corresponding ROSE simulations within water column shallower than 2000 m in the Ross Sea. Vertical distribution of (e) temperature and (f) salinity along the transect a
Biases for model simulated temperature and salinity are respectively shown in red in (a) and (b). In (c–d), color shading of scatters represents the water depth. Solid black curves show the neutral density of 28.00 and 28.27 kg m−3. The dashed blue line indicates the freezing point of seawater. In (e–f), color shading represents the ROSE simulation. Scatters denote the observations from the NBP1310 cruise. The red dashed lines highlight the OSTIA-reconstructed polynya in December SIC <25%)
图 6 模式与TPXO数据K1和M2分潮对比
黑色等值线代表迟角，灰色等值线代表水深，背景颜色代表振幅
Fig. 6 Comparison of K1 and M2 tidal constituents between Rose and TPXO
Black contours denote the phase lag, gray contours denote the depth, and the color shading indicates amplitude
图 7 2010–2020年水柱平均的多年平均流场
在陆架区域，出流用红色表示、入流用蓝色表示。颜色阴影和箭头分别指示流速大小和流向。灰色等高线为1 000 m和3 000 m等深线，粗黑色等高线为500 m等深线，缩写含义见图1
Fig. 7 Multi-year mean flow field averaged in the whole water column over 2010–2020
Outflow is indicated in red and inflow in blue over the shelf. Color shading and arrow respectively indicate the speed magnitude and flow direction. Gray contours denote the 1 000 and 3 000 m isobaths. Bold black contour denotes the 500 m isobath. Full meaning of abbreviations can be found in Fig.1 caption
图 8 （a）观测和（b）ROSE模拟的沿NBP1310航次断面a的DFe偏离值垂直分布，（c）为观测与模拟DFe的散点图及两者相关系数和均方根误差。（d–f）为NBP1201航次断面b的结果
偏离值定义为真实值与区域平均值的差值。表层浓度（红色标出）为25 m以浅水域深度平均的DFe浓度
Fig. 8 Vertical distribution of (a) observed and (b) the corresponding simulated DFe anomalies along transect a from the NBP1310 cruise. (c) Scatter plots of observed and simulated DFe concentrations (true values) with correlation coefficient and RMSE. (d–f) Same as (a–c) but for transect b from the NBP1201 cruise.
Anomaly is the difference between the true value and regional mean. Surface concentration (shown in red) is defined as the average DFe concentration within shallow water of 25 m
图 9 （a）基于OC-CCI的（黑色虚线）和ROSE模拟的（黑色实线）RISP内Chl-a浓度月变化。（b）ROSE模拟的RISP内南极棕囊藻（PHA）到硅藻（DIA）的季节性演替。（c–d）分别为航次观测和ROSE模拟的50 m以浅水域深度平均Chl-a浓度。（e–f）分别为NBP1201航次断面b和ROSE模拟的Chl-a浓度偏离值的垂直结构
图（c–d）中，红色线表示NBP1201航次的断面b，黑色虚线为NBP1302航次中与断面b相近的一条断面。偏离值为真实值与区域平均值的差值
Fig. 9 (a) OC-CCI satellite-based (black dashed lines) and the ROSE-simulated (black solid lines) annual cycle of Chlorophyll-a concentrations, and (b) ROSE-simulated seasonal succession from Phaeocystis antarctica to diatoms in the Ross Ice Shelf Polynya (RISP). (c–d) Depth-mean Chl-a concentrations in the upper 50 m layer based on cruise measurements and corresponding results from the ROSE model. (e–f) Vertical distribution of the observed and the simulated Chl-a anomalies along transect b from the NBP1201 cruise
Red lines in (c) and (d) indicate transect b, while black dashed lines indicate the transect from the NBP1302 cruise. Anomaly is the difference between the true value and regional mean
表 1 南大洋部分生态模式
Tab. 1 Ecological modelling applications covering the Ross Sea
模式名称 特点 主要状态变量 研究问题 参考文献 RISPEM 箱式模式 4种营养盐（2种N，1种Si，1种P），DFe，2种Phyto，2种Zoo，2种碎屑，碳化学模块 浮游植物水华和群落演替的影响因素 文献[17] POOZ 一维模式 3种营养盐（2种N，1种Si），2种Phyto，2种Zoo，1种细菌，2种碎屑 开阔水域的Si和N循环 文献[40] SWAMCO 一维模式 4种营养盐（2种N，1种Si，1种P），DFe，2种Phyto（SWAMCO4为4种），1种Zoo，细菌 充足的光和DFe是水华的必要条件 文献[40–41] MEDUSA-RS 一维模式 2种营养盐（1种N，1种Si），DFe，2种Phyto，2种Zoo，2种碎屑 21世纪罗斯海初级生产和深海碳
输出的变化文献[42] ERSEM 一维模式 4种营养盐（2种N，1种Si，1种P），DFe，4种Phyto，3种Zoo，3种碎屑，碳化学模块 光和铁对初级生产和浮游植物群落结构的影响 文献[43–44] CIAO 三维模式，分辨率25–180 km，垂向23层 1种营养盐（1种N），DFe，2种Phyto，1种Zoo，1种碎屑 DFe在罗斯海初级生产和浮游植物
群落结构时空变化中的作用文献[48–49, 53] PlankTOM10 三维全球模式，经向分辨率2°纬向分辨率平均1.5°，垂向30层 3种营养盐（1种Si，1种P，1种N），DFe，6种Phyto，4种Zoo，3种碎屑，碳化学模块 上行控制和下行控制对浮游植物的
影响文献[54] SIESTA 三维模式，水平分25 km，垂向最低0.02 m 4种营养盐（2种N，1种Si，1种P），1种冰藻，1种碎屑 冰藻的冰下生产 文献[55–56] BEC 三维全球模式，经向分辨率3.6°，纬向分辨率0.9–2.0°，垂向25层 4种营养盐（2种N，1种Si，1种P），DFe，5种Phyto，1种Zoo，1种碎屑 不同浮游植物对初级生产的贡献，
及其面临的上行控制文献[45–46] MEDUSA 三维全球模式，水平分辨率1°，垂向64层 2种营养盐（1种N，1种Si），DFe，2种Phyto，2种Zoo，2种碎屑（2.0版本加入DIC，TA，DO和POC） 全球变化下的生物泵和深海碳输出 文献[57–58] ROMS-BEC 三维模式，水平分辨率1/4°，垂向64层 4种营养盐（2种N，1种Si，1种P），DFe，5种Phyto，1种Zoo，1种碎屑，碳化学模块 棕囊藻对碳循环的贡献，以及下行
控制对浮游植物影响文献[16, 47] KMBM3 三维全球模式，水平分辨率1.8°×3.6°，垂向19层 3种营养盐（1种N，1种Si，1种P），DFe，4种Phyto，1种Zoo，2种碎屑，碳化学模块 南大洋初级生产和DFe的未来变化 文献[59–60] 注：N表示氮盐，Si表示硅酸盐，P表示磷酸盐，DFe为溶解铁，Phyto表示浮游植物，Zoo表示浮游动物 Note: N denotes nitrate, Si denotes silicate, P denotes phosphate, DFe denotes dissolved iron, Phyto denotes phytoplankton, Zoo denotes zooplankton. 
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表 2 ROSE构建所用数据集
Tab. 2 Dataset used for ROSE configuration
数据集 所用变量 时空分辨率 数据来源 EAR5 风速，气温和湿度，短波与长波辐射，降水及降雪 1/4°×1/4°，逐时 https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/dataset/reanalysis-era5 Bedmap2 水深和冰架 1 km https://www.bas.ac.uk/project/bedmap-2/#data HYCOM 海洋温度，盐度，海冰，海面高度和水平流场 1/12°×1/12°，41层，逐日 https://www.hycom.org/ Glo-BGC 营养盐，溶解氧和溶解铁 1/4°×1/4°，75层，逐日 https://data.marine.copernicus.eu/product/GLOBAL_MULTIYEAR_BGC_001_029/description GLODAP 溶解无机碳和总碱度 1°×1°，33层，逐月 https://glodap.info/ TPXO9 五个分潮潮流 1/30°×1/30° https://www.tpxo.net/tpxo-products-and-registration
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表 3 ROSE海冰模块和生态模块参数，P和D代表南极棕囊藻和硅藻，Z和M代表小型浮游动物和中型浮游动物
Tab. 3 Key parameters for sea ice and planktonic organisms and their values in ROSE (P: Phaeocystis antarctica, D: Diatoms, Z: Microzooplankton, M: Mesozooplankton)
参数符号 单位 参数名称 海冰模块 m_cio 3×10−3 / 冰-海拖曳系数 m_pstar 1.2×104 N m−2 冰抗压强度 m_crhg 12 / 冰强度衰减常数 P，D ${ \mu_{\max }^{0}} $ 2.0，1.2 d−1 0°C生长率 $ {{\alpha}^I} $ 1.2，0.6 (W m−2)−1 d−1 P-I斜率 ${ {S}_{rat}^{I} }$ 4.5，3.0 / 细胞大小比例 $ {{K}_{{Fe}}^{I,\min }} $ 1.0，0.4 nmol Fe L−1 铁最小半饱和常数 $ {\theta_{\max }^{{Fe,I}} }$ 40，20 µmol Fe (mol C)−1 最大铁碳比 $ {\theta_{{opt}}^{{Fe,I}}} $ 17，7 µmol Fe (mol C)−1 最优铁碳比 ${ {P}_I^Z }$ 0.9，0.9 / 小型浮游动物偏好 $ {{P}_I^M} $ 0.65，2.00 / 中型浮游动物偏好 Z，M ${ {g}_{\max }^{{X}}} $ 1.80，0.575 d−1 最大摄食速率 $ {{P}_{{Z}}^{{M}}} $ 2.5 / 中型对微型浮游动物偏好 ${ {K}_{{G}}^{{X}} }$ 10，20 µmol C L−1 摄食半饱和常数
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表 4 ROSE评估所用数据集
Tab. 4 Dataset used for ROSE evaluation
覆盖时间 评估对象 来源 数据集 类别 SOSE 模式（含同化） 2010.1.1–2020.12.31 逐日 海冰密集度 http://sose.ucsd.edu/ OSTIA 卫星 2010.1.1–2020.12.31 逐日 海冰密集度 https://doi.org/10.48670/moi-00168 OC-CCI 卫星 2010.1.1–2020.12.31 逐日 叶绿素a https://climate.esa.int/en/projects/ocean-colour/data/ TPXO 模式 2010.1.1–2020.12.31 逐日 潮汐 https://www.tpxo.net/tpxo-products-and-registration 巡航项目 航次数据 PRISM-RS NBP1201 2012.1.6–2012.2.5 温盐，叶绿素a，溶解铁 https://www.bco-dmo.org/project/2155 TRACERS NBP1302 2013.2.3–2013.3.18 温盐，叶绿素a https://www.bco-dmo.org/project/547771 Phantastic01 NBP1310 2013.12.20–2014.1.5 温盐，溶解铁 https://dataportal.nioz.nl/doi/10.25850/nioz/7b.b.r PIPERS NBP1704 2017.4.23–2017.5.28 温盐 https://www.bco-dmo.org/project/815403 CICLOPS NBP1801 2017.12.30–2018.2.18 温盐，叶绿素a https://www.bco-dmo.org/project/774945
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