北极多年冰输运的年际变化及其在波弗特环流区的中断现象

黄鼎; 苏洁

doi:10.12284/hyxb2024099

北极多年冰输运的年际变化及其在波弗特环流区的中断现象

doi: 10.12284/hyxb2024099

黄鼎^1,,
苏洁^{1, 2, 3, ,}

1.
中国海洋大学海洋与大气学院，山东青岛，266100
2.
物理海洋教育部重点实验室，山东青岛 266100
3.
中国高校极地联合研究中心，北京 100875

基金项目: 国家重点研发项目课题（2023YFC2809101）；国家自然科学委员会面上基金项目 (42076228)；崂山实验室科技创新项目（No. LSKJ202202300）。

详细信息

作者简介:
黄鼎（1998—），男，河南省南阳市人，主要从事海冰热力学过程研究。E-mail：huangding@stu.ouc.edu.cn

通讯作者:
苏洁，教授, 主要从事海冰热力学、海冰遥感及数值模拟方面的研究。E-mail：sujie@ouc.edu.cn

中图分类号: P731.15
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2024-06-08
- 修回日期: 2024-08-13
- 刊出日期: 2024-10-30

Interannual variability of Arctic multi-year ice transport and its interruption in the Beaufort Gyre zone

Huang Ding^1
,,
Su Jie^{1, 2, 3
, ,}

1.
College of Oceanography and Atmosphere, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China
2.
Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography, Ministry of Education, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China
3.
Joint Center for Polar Research of Chinese Universities, Beijing 100875, China

摘要

摘要: 受全球变暖的影响，近年来北冰洋大量多年冰被季节冰取代。本文基于冰龄、密集度和冰速卫星遥感数据，对波弗特海北断面（NB断面）、W150°断面、楚科奇海东断面（EC断面）和北极中部断面（CA断面）几个北冰洋代表断面的多年冰通量进行估算，结合大气再分析数据研究影响各断面1984-2021年冰通量变化的主要因素，并对多年冰输运中断发生的时间和原因进行了分析。结果显示，波弗特高压（BH）减弱对应着NB断面多年冰输运减弱和穿极漂流区（CA断面）的多年冰输运增强。在大气环流北极偶极子（DA）模态负位相时期，反气旋风场减弱，使东西伯利亚的南风减弱，导致EC断面的多年冰面积通量减小，经向风减弱使CA断面通量减小。但在2004年之后，波弗特环流区断面（NB和W150°断面）海冰通量和CA断面海冰通量与DA指数的相关性均减少。这主要是由于多年冰范围的不断内缩，使得断面多年冰通量呈现减小趋势，甚至出现中断现象，这使得多年冰面积通量周期发生改变。同时，冰速年际变化也可导致波弗特环流多年冰输运的中断。本研究发现这种情况通常发生在BH指数和DA指数负位相时期，但并不是所有BH指数和DA指数低于负标准差的月份都对应着发生多年冰输运中断的时间，当中断发生时，与普通BH负位相情形相比，风场距平的中心点更靠近北极点，与普通DA负位相情形相比，海平面气压正、负距平空间分布更加对称。
- 多年冰输运 /
- 中断现象 /
- 波弗特高压 /
- 北极偶极子
Abstract: Due to global warming, a significant amount of multi-year ice(MYI) has been replaced by seasonal ice in recent years. In this study, the multi-year ice flux of representative sections(Northern Beaufort (NB) section, W150° Section, Eastern Chukchi (EC) Section and Central Arctic (CA) Section) of the Arctic Ocean is calculated based on ice age, ice concentration and ice velocity data. The main factors affecting ice fluxes at each section from 1984 to 2021 were investigated in the context of atmospheric reanalysis data. The occurrence time and reasons for theMYI transport interruptions were analyzed. The results show that the weakening of the Beaufort High (BH) corresponds to a reduction in MYI transport in the NB section and an increase in the CA Section along Transpolar Drift region. During the negative phase of the Arctic Dipole (DA), the anticyclonic wind field weak, which reduced the south winds in East Siberia, leading to a decrease in the MYI flux in the EC Section. The decrease in meridional wind has reduced the flux in the CA Section. However, after 2004, the correlation between sea ice flux in the Beaufort gyre region and the Transpolar drift region sections with the DA index decreased. This is mainly due to the continuous contraction of the MYI extent, which has resulted in a decreasing trend in section and even interruptions. The contraction also changes the periodicity of the MYI flux. At the same time, interannual variations of ice velocity can also cause interruptions of multi-year ice transport in the Beaufort gyre. The results indicate that interruptions usually occur during the negative phase periods of the BH index and DA index. However, it is noteworthy that not all months with BH and DA index below the negative standard deviation correspond to the time oftransport interruption. When an interruption occurs, the wind field anomaly center is closer to the North Pole than in the normal of the negative phase of the BH. Furthermore, the spatial distribution of positive and negative sea level pressure anomalies is more symmetrical, compared to the normal negative phase of the DA.
- multi-year ice transport /
- interruption /
- Beaufort High /
- Arctic dipole

HTML全文

图 1 1984–2021年冻结季（10−4月）气候态冰速分布和海冰外缘线位置，其中紫色线为NB断面，经向断面为W150°断面（绿色），红色断面为EC断面，蓝色线为CA断面

Fig. 1 The climatological ice velocity distribution and ice edge position during the freezing season (October to April) from 1984 to 2021, with the purple line representing the NB Section, the meridional section indicated by the W150° Section (green), the red line representing the EC Section, and the blue line representing the CA Section

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图 2 1984−2021年MYI密集度均值（%）（a），趋势（%/a）（b）和标准差（%）（c）的变化

Fig. 2 The variation of MYI concentration from 1984 to 2021: mean concentration (%) (a), Trend (%/a) (b), and standard deviation (%) (c).

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图 3 1984–2021年冻结季平均的冰速和MYI密集度空间变化

Fig. 3 The spatial variations of average ice velocity and MYI concentration during the freezing season during 1984 to 2021

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图 4 1984–2021年冻结季通过4个断面的MYI面积通量（星型标识为断面MYI通量为0的年份）（a），冻结季通过4个断面的整体冰面积通量（b）；4个断面的冰速的均值变化（正方形框为断面冰速低于负标准差的年份，断面冰速和通量的值只考虑向东或向南的方向）（c），4个断面MYI密集度的均值变化（星型标识为断面MYI密集度为0的年份）（d）

Fig. 4 MYI area flux through the four sections during the freezing season from 1984 to 2021 (star markers indicate years when the section MYI flux was zero) (a); All ice area flux through the four sections (b); Mean variation of ice velocity across the four sections (square boxes indicate years when the section ice velocity was below the negative standard deviation; values for section ice speed and flux only consider the eastward or southward direction) (c); Mean variation of MYI concentration across the four sections (star markers indicate years when the section MYI concentration was zero) (d).

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图 5 NB断面（a）、W150°断面（b）、EC断面（c）、CA断面（d）MYI通量的小波分析图（图中黑色实线为90%的置信区间，白色虚线为影响锥，受数据长度影响）

Fig. 5 Wavelet analysis of MYI flux for the NB Section (a) , W150° Section (b), EC Section (c), CA Section (d) (The black solid lines represent the 90% confidence interval, and the white dashed lines indicate the cone of influence, which is affected by the length of the data)

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图 6 1984–2021年冻结季BH指数的时间序列（相应的黑色虚线为正负标准差）（a），BH指数小波分析（b），不同断面MYI通量和BH指数的关系（c），不同断面整体冰通量和BH指数的关系（d）（图c和d中相应的黑色虚线为90%置信区间）

Fig. 6 Time series of the BH index during the freezing season from 1984 to 2021 (corresponding black dashed lines represent the positive and negative standard deviations) (a), wavelet analysis of the BH index (b); relationship between MYI flux for different sections and the BH index (c); relationship between All ice flux for different sections and the BH index (d) (the corresponding black dashed lines represent the 90% confidence interval in Fig.6c, d)

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图 7 超过正标准差和负标准差BH指数年份的海平面气压、10 m风速（a），冰速的合成（超过标准差的负位相减去正位相）（b），气候态海平面气压和10 m风速空间分布（绿色实线为波弗特高压的区域）（c）

Fig. 7 Composite fields of sea level pressure, 10 m wind speed (a), ice velocity for years when the BH index exceeds the positive and negative standard deviations (negative phase exceeding the standard deviation minus the positive phase) (b); spatial distribution of climatological sea level pressure and 10 m wind speed (the green solid line indicates the region of the Beaufort High) (c)

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图 8 1984–2021年DA和AO指数的时间序列，相应的虚线为正负标准差（a）；DA指数（b）和AO指数的小波分析图像（c）

Fig. 8 Time series of DA index and AO index during 1984 to 2021, with the corresponding dashed lines representing ±1 standard deviation (a); wavelet analysis of the DA index (b), AO index (c)

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图 9 1984–2021年各个断面MYI通量与DA指数的滑动相关（a）；MYI通量与AO的滑动相关（b）；整体冰通量与DA的相关（c）；整体冰通量与AO的相关（d）（图中相应的黑色虚线为90%置信区间）

Fig. 9 Sliding correlation between MYI flux of various sections and DA index from 1984 to 2021 (a); sliding correlation analysis between MYI flux and AO index (b); correlation between all ice flux and DA (c); correlation between All ice flux and AO (d) (the corresponding black dashed lines represent the 90% confidence interval).

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图 10 1984–2004年和2005–2021年MYI海冰外缘线的变化

Fig. 10 Variations of the MYI ice edge from 1984 to 2004 and from 2005 to 2021.

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图 11 超过标准差的正、负位相DA指数年份的海平面气压、10 m风速（a）和冰速差值场（负减正）的合成（b）

Fig. 11 Composite fields of sea level pressure, 10 m wind speed (a) and ice speed difference (negative minus positive) (b) for years with DA index phases exceeding one standard deviation

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图 12 1984–2021年NB断面月平均MYI面积输运量（a）冰速（d）和MYI密集度（g）时间序列，b、e和h为EC断面，c、f和i为W150°断面（黑色点为面积输运量、冰速和密集度等于0的年份）

Fig. 12 Monthly mean time series from 1984 to 2021 for the NB Section: MYI area transport (a), ice velocity (d), and MYI concentration (g); b, e and h represent the EC Section; c, f and i represent the W150° Section (black dots indicate years where area transport, ice velocity and concentration are equal to zero)

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图 13 a、b、e、f. BH指数低于负标准差的月份中，发生中断月份和未发生中断月份的海平面气压及风速和冰速的合成；c、d、g、h. DA低于负标准差的月份中，发生中断月份和未发生中断月份的海平面气压及风速和冰速的合成变化

Fig. 13 Composite fields of a, b, e, f sea level pressure, wind velocity, and ice velocity during months with BH index below one standard deviation, comparing months with and without transport interruptions; Composite fields of c, d, g, h sea level pressure, wind velocity, and ice velocity during months with DA below one standard deviation, comparing months with and without transport interruptions

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图 14 3个断面月平均冰速异常与BH指数的滑动相关（a），3个断面月平均冰速异常与DA指数的滑动相关（b）（图中相应的黑色虚线为90%置信区间）；以DA指数、BH指数为x、y轴，NB断面（c）和EC断面（d）MYI发生中断时的冰速异常为z轴绘制的图像

Fig. 14 Sliding correlation between the monthly mean ice velocity anomalies between three sections and BH index (a) ; sliding correlation between the monthly mean ice velocity anomalies between three sections and DA index (b) (the corresponding black dashed lines represent the 90% confidence interval); plot with DA index and BH index as the x and y axes, and ice velocity anomalies during MYI transport interruptions at the NB Section as the z-axis (c); Similar plot for the EC Section (d).

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图 15 DA（+）指数、 BH（−）指数背景下海平面气压、10 m风速距平（a）和冰速距平的合成（c）； DA（−）指数、BH（−）指数背景下海平面气压、10 m风速距平（b）和冰速距平的合成（d）

Fig. 15 Composite variations under DA (+) index and BH (−) index conditions: sea level pressure, 10 m wind velocity anomalies (a); ice velocity anomalies (c). Composite variations under DA (−) index and BH (−) index conditions: sea level pressure, 10 m wind velocity anomalies (b); ice velocity anomalies (d)

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表 1 北极冻结季各断面冰速为0引起的MYI输运中断时间

Tab. 1 Duration of MYI transport interruptions caused by zero ice speed across different sections during the Arctic freezing season.

	MYI输运中断发生时间	BH指数低于标准差	DA指数低于标准差
NB断面（25，占比73%）	1985.03；1988.12；1989.01；1989.02；1990.03；1991.04；1991.12；1992.10；1993.01；1994.12；1996.02；1996.03₊；1997.04_；1998.03；1999.01；2000.10； 2005.04；2006.02₊；2007.03；2009.02；2010.01；2011.03；2019.02；2020.03；2020.04*；	1985.03；1986.03；1987.01；1988.12；1989.01；1989.02；1990.02；1990.03；1990.04；1991.04；1991.12；1992.12；1993.01；1993.03；1993.11；1994.11；1994.12；1996.02₊；1997.11；2003.12；2005.10₊；2006.01₊；2006.12；2008.10；2009.11；2011.02；2011.03；2011.04；2013.11；2014.04；2015.11；2017.01₊；2017.03；2018.12；2019.02；2019.03；2020.02；2020.03；2020.04；2020.11；2021.03	1984.10；1985.02；1986.03；1986.10；1986.12；1987.04；1990.01；1990.02；1991.03；1992.04；1993.11；1994.03；1997.03_；1998.11；1999.01；1999.03；2000.01；2000.10；2000.11；2001.01；2002.12；2003.11；2004.03；2004.12_；2005.12；2006.01；2006.04；2007.03；2009.11；2010.02；2010.04；2011.02；2011.04；2012.01；2012.03；2014.01；2014.02；2015.10；2015.11；2016.01；2016.10；2016.11；2018.02；2020.11
W150°断面（15，占比27%）	1986.03；1989.01；1989.02；1990.03；1990.04；1993.01；1993.11；1996.03₊；2005.01_；2007.03；2010.01；2011.03；2012.11；2017.03；2020.03*
EC断面（16，占比21%）	1987.04；1990.02；1993.01；1993.11；1994.03；1999.01；2000.01；2001.12；2003.11；2005.01_；2005.11₊；2006.01；2006.04；2012.01；2017.02₊；2020.02*
注：斜体字为BH指数低于标准差与MYI输运中断重合的时间，标注（+）为MYI输运中断的月份在BH指数低于标准差的月份之后1个月的时间，加粗字为DA指数低于标准差与MYI输运中断重合的时间，标注（*）为MYI输运中断的月份在DA指数低于标准差的月份之后1个月的时间。

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