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渔获量时间序列长度对基于CMSY方法的资源评估结果的影响

李琪 刘淑德 王琨 张崇良

李琪,刘淑德,王琨,等. 渔获量时间序列长度对基于CMSY方法的资源评估结果的影响[J]. 海洋学报,2023,45(3):27–39 doi: 10.12284/hyxb2023046
引用本文: 李琪,刘淑德,王琨,等. 渔获量时间序列长度对基于CMSY方法的资源评估结果的影响[J]. 海洋学报,2023,45(3):27–39 doi: 10.12284/hyxb2023046
Li Qi,Liu Shude,Wang Kun, et al. Effects of lengths of catch time series on stock assessment using CMSY method[J]. Haiyang Xuebao,2023, 45(3):27–39 doi: 10.12284/hyxb2023046
Citation: Li Qi,Liu Shude,Wang Kun, et al. Effects of lengths of catch time series on stock assessment using CMSY method[J]. Haiyang Xuebao,2023, 45(3):27–39 doi: 10.12284/hyxb2023046

渔获量时间序列长度对基于CMSY方法的资源评估结果的影响

doi: 10.12284/hyxb2023046
基金项目: 国家重点研发计划(2018YFD0900906,2018YFD0900904)。
详细信息
    作者简介:

    李琪(1995-),女,山东省青岛市人,主要从事渔业资源评估研究。E-mail:lq@ouc.edu.cn

    通讯作者:

    张崇良,副教授,主要从事渔业资源评估和生态系统模拟研究。E-mail:zhangclg@ouc.edu.cn

  • 中图分类号: S932.4

Effects of lengths of catch time series on stock assessment using CMSY method

  • 摘要: 大多数渔业种类由于数据缺乏,无法使用传统的渔业资源评估方法开展评估和管理。越来越多的研究采用CMSY等基于有限数据的评估方法,但CMSY方法在渔获量数据时间序列长度有限、存在误差等情况下的评估可靠性尚有待验证。本研究运用CMSY方法对黄海3种产量较高的经济鱼类开展资源评估,探索渔获量数据时间序列长度、不同渔业发展阶段,以及观测误差水平对评估结果的影响。结果表明,鲐、带鱼和银鲳在2000年后均出现产量高于最大可持续产量(MSY)的情况,资源处于过度利用状况(B/BMSY<1、F/FMSY>1),近10年来开发强度降低,但生物量仍处于较低水平(B/BMSY<1)。评估模型的回溯性分析结果差异较小,表明评估结果稳定。从数据长度上看,使用遍历产量上升和下降过程的长时间序列数据,其评估结果更为稳定。在观测误差大于20%的情况下,模型对MSY和BMSY出现高估,但结果仍较为稳健。在CMSY方法的应用中应注意选取长时间序列的产量数据,在评估结果不确定性高的情况下应采取相对保守的渔业管理措施。
  • 图  1  CMSY方法对鲐、带鱼和银鲳种群状态的评估结果

    Fig.  1  The estimated stock status of Scomber japonicus, Trichiurus lepturus and Pampus argenteus by the CMSY method

    图  2  不同时间序列长度的产量数据情况下鲐的回溯性分析结果

    Fig.  2  Retrospective analysis of mackerel (Scomber japonicus) with catch data of different time-series lengths

    3  使用在不同渔业发展阶段带鱼、鲐产量的回溯性分析结果

    3  Retrospective analysis of hairtail (Trichiurus lepturus) and mackerel (Scomber japonicus) with catches of different development stages

    图  4  不同渔获量数据误差情况下鲐的评估结果KOBE图

    右上方图例中的4种颜色对应的百分数表示最后一年该物种落入其中一个彩色区域的概率

    Fig.  4  KOBE plot of mackerel (Scomber japonicus) at different levels of error in catch data

    The legend in the upper right graph indicates the probability of the last year falling into one of the colored areas

    表  1  CMSY相对生物量( B / k ) 的先验设置

    Tab.  1  Prior settings of the relative biomass (B/k) in CMSY

    生物量水平建议先验范围Bstart/kBend/k
    极低生物量水平0.8~1.0鲐(1950−2018年、1980−2018年、1980−1999年);银鲳(1969−2018年、1980−2018年);带鱼(1950−2018年)
    低生物量水平0.4~0.8鲐(2000−2018年、1960−1979年);带鱼(1980−2018年、1980−1999年、1960−1979年)鲐(1960−1979年);带鱼(1980−1999年、1960−1979年)
    中等生物量水平0.2~0.6银鲳(2000−2018年);带鱼(2000−2018年)鲐(1950−2018年、1980−2018年、2000−2018年、1980−1999年);银鲳(1969−2018年、1980−2018年、2000−2018年);带鱼(1950−2018年、1980−2018年)
    高生物量水平0.01~0.4带鱼(2000−2018年)
    几乎未被开发0.01~0.2
    注:“−”代表没有任何一种鱼类的生物量水平先验设置在此范围内。
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  渔获量数据时间序列的情景设置

    Tab.  2  Scenario settings for the time series of catch data

    物种不同时间长度设置不同发展阶段时间设置
    Scomber japonicus1950−2018年1960−1979年
    1980−2018年1980−1999年
    2000−2018年2000−2018年
    带鱼 Trichiurus lepturus1950−2018年1960−1979年
    1980−2018年1980−1999年
    2000−2018年2000−2018年
    银鲳 Pampus argenteus1969−2018年
    1980−2018年
    2000−2018年
    注:渔获量数据误差(以变异系数区分不同误差,分别为5%、10%、20%和30%)均在鲐1950−2018年的时间序列下加入;“−”表示未针对此情景开展模型稳定性探究。
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  3  不同渔获量时间序列长度下CMSY模型评估结果比较

    Tab.  3  A comparison of the assessment results by CMSY with different catch time-series lengths

    物种时间序列最大可持续产量
    MSY/(10³ t)
    MSY变异系数
    Cv
    相对生物量
    B/BMSY
    B/BMSY标准差
    SD
    相对开发强度
    F/FMSY
    F/FMSY标准差
    SD

    Scomber japonicus
    1950−2018年50.210.0550.860.1821.010.315
    1980−2018年49.880.0540.860.1821.020.318
    2000−2018年50.760.0720.940.1890.910.312
    银鲳
    Pampus argenteus
    1969−2018年87.260.0520.820.1870.960.298
    1980−2018年87.160.0520.840.1860.950.298
    2000−2018年92.890.0770.930.1880.800.267
    带鱼
    Trichiurus lepturus
    1950−2018年183.180.0660.930.1850.750.239
    1980−2018年186.730.0450.930.1830.740.231
    2000−2018年191.120.0860.540.1881.213.991
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  4  鲐和带鱼在不同渔业发展阶段的评估结果分析

    Tab.  4  Stock assessment results for mackerel (Scomber japonicus) and hairtail (Trichiurus lepturus)at different stages of fishery development

    物种时间序列最大可持续产量
    MSY/(10³ t)
    MSY变异系数
    Cv
    相对生物量
    B/BMSY
    B/BMSY标准差
    SD
    相对开发强度
    F/FMSY
    F/FMSY标准差
    SD

    Scomber japonicus
    1960−1979年22.400.1901.460.1600.550.084
    1980−1999年42.150.1020.990.1861.020.349
    2000−2018年50.760.0720.940.1890.910.312
    带鱼
    Trichiurus lepturus
    1960−1979年105.510.1501.320.1880.740.140
    1980−1999年196.790.1951.340.1880.750.141
    2000−2018年191.120.0860.540.1881.213.991
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  5  不同渔获量误差情况下鲐的评估结果分析

    Tab.  5  Stock assessment results for mackerel (Scomber japonicus) at different levels of error in catch data

    物种渔获量数据误差
    Cv)/%
    最大可持续产量
    MSY/(103 t)
    MSY变异系数
    Cv
    MSY生物量
    BMSY/(103 t)
    BMSY变异系数
    Cv
    MSY开发强度
    FMSY
    FMSY变异系数
    Cv

    Scomber japonicus
    050.210.055179.030.1520.2830.161
    550.050.058178.080.1460.2830.159
    1050.160.065179.210.1510.2820.161
    2050.810.083180.270.1540.2840.159
    3051.440.100183.150.1550.2830.165
    下载: 导出CSV
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  • 收稿日期:  2022-09-04
  • 修回日期:  2022-10-11
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  • 刊出日期:  2023-02-01

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