Effects of lengths of catch time series on stock assessment using CMSY method
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摘要: 大多数渔业种类由于数据缺乏，无法使用传统的渔业资源评估方法开展评估和管理。越来越多的研究采用CMSY等基于有限数据的评估方法，但CMSY方法在渔获量数据时间序列长度有限、存在误差等情况下的评估可靠性尚有待验证。本研究运用CMSY方法对黄海3种产量较高的经济鱼类开展资源评估，探索渔获量数据时间序列长度、不同渔业发展阶段，以及观测误差水平对评估结果的影响。结果表明，鲐、带鱼和银鲳在2000年后均出现产量高于最大可持续产量（MSY）的情况，资源处于过度利用状况（B/BMSY<1、F/FMSY>1），近10年来开发强度降低，但生物量仍处于较低水平（B/BMSY<1）。评估模型的回溯性分析结果差异较小，表明评估结果稳定。从数据长度上看，使用遍历产量上升和下降过程的长时间序列数据，其评估结果更为稳定。在观测误差大于20%的情况下，模型对MSY和BMSY出现高估，但结果仍较为稳健。在CMSY方法的应用中应注意选取长时间序列的产量数据，在评估结果不确定性高的情况下应采取相对保守的渔业管理措施。Abstract: The majority of global fish stocks lack adequate data for their stock statuses to be assessed using conventional stock assessment methods. Data-limited methods, such as CMSY, have been increasingly recommended as new solutions for stock assessment and fishery management. However, CMSY is highly dependent on data quality, and the reliability of the method is yet to be verified under circumstances of limited length of time series data and variable observational errors. In this study, we investigated effects of lengths of catch time series, stages of fishery development, and levels of observational errors in catches on stock assessment of three economically-important species in the Yellow Sea using CMSY method. The results show that chub mackerel (Scomber japonicus), hairtail (Trichiurus lepturus), and silver pomfret (Pampus argenteus), all have been overfished (B/BMSY<1 and F/FMSY>1), with their yields higher than estimated MSY since 2000, and although their fishing intensities have been reduced over the most recent decade, their biomasses remain at low levels (B/BMSY<1). The retrospective analysis show small differences in the results of stock assessment for the three species, indicating that the assessments are robust enough with long time series data. As to effects of lengths of catch time series, the assessments are more stable using time series data covering a period of both rise and fall in catches. The effect of observational errors in catches is also tested, showing that when the error is >20%, the model tend to overestimate MSY and BMSY, but the assessment remains robust enough. This study suggests that cautions should be undertaken in the application of CMSY by using longer time series of catch data and, in the presence of high uncertainty in the assessment, more conservative measures should be taken in fishery management.
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Key words:
- data-limited methods /
- fishery stock assessment /
- CMSY method /
- fisheries yield /
- time series data
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图 1 CMSY方法对鲐、带鱼和银鲳种群状态的评估结果
Fig. 1 The estimated stock status of Scomber japonicus, Trichiurus lepturus and Pampus argenteus by the CMSY method
图 2 不同时间序列长度的产量数据情况下鲐的回溯性分析结果
Fig. 2 Retrospective analysis of mackerel (Scomber japonicus) with catch data of different time-series lengths
3 使用在不同渔业发展阶段带鱼、鲐产量的回溯性分析结果
3 Retrospective analysis of hairtail (Trichiurus lepturus) and mackerel (Scomber japonicus) with catches of different development stages
图 4 不同渔获量数据误差情况下鲐的评估结果KOBE图
右上方图例中的4种颜色对应的百分数表示最后一年该物种落入其中一个彩色区域的概率
Fig. 4 KOBE plot of mackerel (Scomber japonicus) at different levels of error in catch data
The legend in the upper right graph indicates the probability of the last year falling into one of the colored areas
表 1 CMSY相对生物量（ B / k ） 的先验设置
Tab. 1 Prior settings of the relative biomass (B/k) in CMSY
生物量水平 建议先验范围 Bstart/k Bend/k 极低生物量水平 0.8～1.0 鲐（1950−2018年、1980−2018年、1980−1999年）；银鲳（1969−2018年、1980−2018年）；带鱼（1950−2018年） − 低生物量水平 0.4～0.8 鲐（2000−2018年、1960−1979年）；带鱼（1980−2018年、1980−1999年、1960−1979年） 鲐（1960−1979年）；带鱼（1980−1999年、1960−1979年） 中等生物量水平 0.2～0.6 银鲳（2000−2018年）；带鱼（2000−2018年） 鲐（1950−2018年、1980−2018年、2000−2018年、1980−1999年）；银鲳（1969−2018年、1980−2018年、2000−2018年）；带鱼（1950−2018年、1980−2018年） 高生物量水平 0.01～0.4 − 带鱼（2000−2018年） 几乎未被开发 0.01～0.2 − − 注：“−”代表没有任何一种鱼类的生物量水平先验设置在此范围内。 
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表 2 渔获量数据时间序列的情景设置
Tab. 2 Scenario settings for the time series of catch data
物种 不同时间长度设置 不同发展阶段时间设置 鲐 Scomber japonicus 1950−2018年 1960−1979年 1980−2018年 1980−1999年 2000−2018年 2000−2018年 带鱼 Trichiurus lepturus 1950−2018年 1960−1979年 1980−2018年 1980−1999年 2000−2018年 2000−2018年 银鲳 Pampus argenteus 1969−2018年 − 1980−2018年 2000−2018年 注：渔获量数据误差（以变异系数区分不同误差，分别为5%、10%、20%和30%）均在鲐1950−2018年的时间序列下加入；“−”表示未针对此情景开展模型稳定性探究。
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表 3 不同渔获量时间序列长度下CMSY模型评估结果比较
Tab. 3 A comparison of the assessment results by CMSY with different catch time-series lengths
物种 时间序列 最大可持续产量
MSY/（10³ t）MSY变异系数
Cv相对生物量
B/BMSYB/BMSY标准差
SD相对开发强度
F/FMSYF/FMSY标准差
SD鲐
Scomber japonicus1950−2018年 50.21 0.055 0.86 0.182 1.01 0.315 1980−2018年 49.88 0.054 0.86 0.182 1.02 0.318 2000−2018年 50.76 0.072 0.94 0.189 0.91 0.312 银鲳
Pampus argenteus1969−2018年 87.26 0.052 0.82 0.187 0.96 0.298 1980−2018年 87.16 0.052 0.84 0.186 0.95 0.298 2000−2018年 92.89 0.077 0.93 0.188 0.80 0.267 带鱼
Trichiurus lepturus1950−2018年 183.18 0.066 0.93 0.185 0.75 0.239 1980−2018年 186.73 0.045 0.93 0.183 0.74 0.231 2000−2018年 191.12 0.086 0.54 0.188 1.21 3.991
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表 4 鲐和带鱼在不同渔业发展阶段的评估结果分析
Tab. 4 Stock assessment results for mackerel (Scomber japonicus) and hairtail (Trichiurus lepturus)at different stages of fishery development
物种 时间序列 最大可持续产量
MSY/（10³ t）MSY变异系数
Cv相对生物量
B/BMSYB/BMSY标准差
SD相对开发强度
F/FMSYF/FMSY标准差
SD鲐
Scomber japonicus1960−1979年 22.40 0.190 1.46 0.160 0.55 0.084 1980−1999年 42.15 0.102 0.99 0.186 1.02 0.349 2000−2018年 50.76 0.072 0.94 0.189 0.91 0.312 带鱼
Trichiurus lepturus1960−1979年 105.51 0.150 1.32 0.188 0.74 0.140 1980−1999年 196.79 0.195 1.34 0.188 0.75 0.141 2000−2018年 191.12 0.086 0.54 0.188 1.21 3.991
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表 5 不同渔获量误差情况下鲐的评估结果分析
Tab. 5 Stock assessment results for mackerel (Scomber japonicus) at different levels of error in catch data
物种 渔获量数据误差
（Cv）/%最大可持续产量
MSY/（103 t）MSY变异系数
CvMSY生物量
BMSY/（103 t）BMSY变异系数
CvMSY开发强度
FMSYFMSY变异系数
Cv鲐
Scomber japonicus0 50.21 0.055 179.03 0.152 0.283 0.161 5 50.05 0.058 178.08 0.146 0.283 0.159 10 50.16 0.065 179.21 0.151 0.282 0.161 20 50.81 0.083 180.27 0.154 0.284 0.159 30 51.44 0.100 183.15 0.155 0.283 0.165
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