Two leading modes of environmental steering flow in the interannual time scale and their associations with tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific
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摘要: 本文基于中国气象局上海台风研究所整编的热带气旋（Tropical Cyclone, TC）最佳路径资料及美国NCEP/NCAR月平均再分析资料，采用经验正交函数分解、合成分析、相关分析等统计方法，分析了1979−2016年7−9月西北太平洋地区海盆尺度大尺度环境引导气流的年际变化与热带气旋活动之间的联系。结果表明：（1）西北太平洋地区夏季大尺度环境引导气流在年际尺度上存在两个典型模态。其中第一典型模态大尺度环境引导气流呈现经向分布的偶极型环流型，该模态与东部型ENSO密切相关；第二典型模态大尺度环境引导气流呈明显的局地反气旋环流形态，其与中部型ENSO和热带大西洋海温异常紧密关联。（2）大尺度环境引导气流第一典型模态异常年份之间TC活动（生成位置、路径、强度和持续时间）具有显著差异，TC生成空间分布南北差异显著；TC路径尤其西北行和西行盛行路径也具有显著差异。（3）第二典型模态异常年份之间，TC生成位置和路径差异与第一模态呈现显著不同，TC生成位置呈现较为明显的东西向分布，在东南象限TC生成差异尤为显著，TC路径的差异主要体现在西北行和近海转向两类盛行路径。Abstract: Using the tropical cyclone (TC) best track data from the Shanghai Typhoon Research Institute of the China Meteorological Administration (CMA-STI) and the monthly mean reanalysis data of NCEP/NCAR, the interannual variability of the basin-scale large-scale environmental steering flow and the tropical cyclone activity in the western North Pacific (WNP) during peak season from July to September from 1979−2016 are investigated. The results show that: (1) There are two typical modes of summer large-scale environmental steering flow in the WNP at the inter-annual scale. The first typical mode is a dipole circulation with a meridional distribution, which is closely related to the eastern ENSO and the sea-air coupling mode in the WNP region. (2) The TC activity (generation location, tracks, intensity and duration) differs significantly between the two typical interannual mode anomaly years of the large-scale environment steering flow, but the differences have distinctly different characteristics for the two typical inter-annual modes. (3) The spatial distribution of TC generation location shows significant differences from north to south between the years of the first typical interannual mode anomalies of large-scale environment steering flow; the TC tracks, especially the northwestward and westward prevailing tracks, also have significant differences, and their average duration and intensity also show their corresponding significant differences. In the second major interannual mode anomaly years, the TC generation locations show significant east-west distribution especially in the southeast quadrant, and the differences in TC tracks are mainly in the northwestward and offshore steering prevailing tracks, and their mean durations and intensities also show significant differences.
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图 1 引导气流EOF第一、第二主要年际空间模态（a，c）及标准化时间系数（b，d）
灰色实线为5点平滑处理结果，灰色虚线为线性倾向
Fig. 1 Steering flow (a, c) and the standardized time coefficient (b, d) of EOF1 and EOF2
5-point smoothing is denoted by the solid gray line; the linear tendency is denoted by the dashed gray line
图 2 EOF第一、第二主要年际模态时间系数与海表温度相关系数的空间分布和引导气流EOF第一、第二主要年际模态（绿色矢量箭头）
打点为通过90%显著性检验
Fig. 2 Spatial distribution of correlation coefficent between time coefficient and sea surface temperature of EOF1 and EOF2 and steering flow of EOF1 and EOF2 (green vectors)
Dots denote areas that are significant at the 95% confidence level
图 3 EOF第一、第二主要年际模态时间系数与赤道西太平洋（5°S～5°N，130°～160°E）（a，b）、赤道中东太平洋（10°S～10°N，100°W～180°）（c，d）、赤道东太平洋（10°S～10°N，80°～120°W）（e，f）、赤道大西洋（10°S～20°N，70°W～0°）（g，h）7−9月海表温度进行相关性分析
显著性：*代表>90%、**代表>95%、***代表>99%；海表温度为标准化温度
Fig. 3 Correlation analysis between time coefficient of EOF1 and EOF2 and sea surface temperature in the equatorial western Pacific (5°S−5°N, 130°−160°E) (a, b), the equatorial central and eastern Pacific (10°S−10°N, 100°W−180°) (c, d), the equatorial eastern Pacific (10°S−10°N, 80°−120°W) (e, f) and the equatorial Atlantic (10°S−20°N, 70°W−0°) (g, h)
Significance: * represents >90%, ** represents >95%, *** represents >99%; the sea surface temperature is the standardized temprature
图 4 EOF第一（左侧）、第二（右侧）主要年际模态下正负异常年前一年秋季（SON）、冬季（DJF），同年春季（MAM）、夏季（JJA）海表温度及850 hPa风矢量场（黑色矢量箭头，单位：m/s）合成差异
Fig. 4 Sea surface temperature and 850 hPa winds (black vectors, unit: m/s) composite differences between positive and negative years of EOF1 (left) and EOF2 (right) from the previous fall (SON) and winter (DJF), concurrent spring (MAM) and summer (JJA)
图 5 EOF第一、第二主要年际模态正负异常年份热带气旋平均路径密度差异（a，b）及生成位置密度差异（c，d）
Fig. 5 Mean TC track density difference (a, b) and TC genesis density location difference (c, d) between the positive and negative years of EOF1 and EOF2
图 6 EOF第一、第二主要年际模态正负异常年TC路径
黑色线为TC合成路径，不同颜色的线代表10 m最大风速
Fig. 6 TC tracks during the positive and negative phases of EOF1 and EOF2
Black lines represent the prevailing TC tracks; lines with different colors represent the maximum 10 m wind speed
图 7 3类TC（Type A、Type B、Type C）路径的10 m最大风速、生成位置（红色圆点）和每类集群中心（黑色实线）
Fig. 7 Maximum 10 m wind speed, genesis location (red dots) and cluster center of each type (black lines) of three types of TC track (Type A, Type B, Type C)
图 8 EOF第一、第二主要年际模态正负异常年涡度场（单位：10−6 s−1）叠加850 hPa风矢量场（单位：m/s）（a，b）、200～850 hPa垂直风切变（c，d，单位：m/s）、700 hPa相对湿度（e，f） 、500 hPa高度处垂直速度（g，h，单位：10−2 Pa/s）差异
绿色等值线为平均路径密度；打点为通过95%显著性检验
Fig. 8 Difference of vorticity fields (unit: 10−6 s−1) superposition 850 hPa wind vector field (unit: m/s) (a, b), vertical wind shear (unit: m/s) between 200−850 hPa (c, d), relative humidity of 700 hPa (e, f), and vertical velocity of 500 hPa height (g, h, unit: 10−2 Pa/s) between positive and negative years of EOF1 and EOF2
Green counters are the density of TC tracks; dots are the value that is significant at a 95% confidence level
表 1 EOF第一、第二主要年际模态正负异常年年份
Tab. 1 Positive and negative anomaly years of EOF1 and EOF2
EOF第一主要年际模态 正异常年 1988 1994 1998 2000 2001 2008 2010 2011 2012 负异常年 1980 1982 1983 1986 1987 1991 1993 2014 2015 EOF第二主要年际模态 正异常年 1983 1985 1988 1995 1998 2003 2008 2010 2014 负异常年 1982 1986 1994 1997 2002 2006 2012 2015 2016 
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表 2 两个模态正负异常年各类年TC频数差值
Tab. 2 Annual TC frequency difference between positive and negative years of EOF1 and EOF2
模态 Type A Type B Type C EOF1 −1.33** 1.78* 0.78 EOF2 −1.78** 0 −1.33 注：*代表显著性大于90%，**代表显著性大于95%。
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表 3 两个模态正负异常年TC特征差值
Tab. 3 TC characteristic difference between positive and negative years of EOF1 and EOF2
个数 生命周期/h 初始纬度/(°) 初始经度/(°) PDI/（106 m3·s−3） 最大风速/（m·s−1） 平均风速/（m·s−1） EOF1 1.22 −38.39** 2.99*** −4.60 −6.06** −6.64*** −3.30*** EOF2 −3.11* −44.08*** 1.17 −7.80** −9.51*** −3.34* −1.50 注：*代表显著性大于90%；**代表显著性大于95%；***代表显著性大于99%；初始纬度和经度以北纬和东经为基准。
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