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环境引导气流两类典型年际模态与西北太平洋热带气旋活动的联系

杨昕玮 邵宇行 赵海坤 韩翔 周育锋 姜明波

杨昕玮,邵宇行,赵海坤,等. 环境引导气流两类典型年际模态与西北太平洋热带气旋活动的联系[J]. 海洋学报,2023,45(3):1–13 doi: 10.12284/hyxb2023036
引用本文: 杨昕玮,邵宇行,赵海坤,等. 环境引导气流两类典型年际模态与西北太平洋热带气旋活动的联系[J]. 海洋学报,2023,45(3):1–13 doi: 10.12284/hyxb2023036
Yang Xinwei,Shao Yuhang,Zhao Haikun, et al. Two leading modes of environmental steering flow in the interannual time scale and their associations with tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific[J]. Haiyang Xuebao,2023, 45(3):1–13 doi: 10.12284/hyxb2023036
Citation: Yang Xinwei,Shao Yuhang,Zhao Haikun, et al. Two leading modes of environmental steering flow in the interannual time scale and their associations with tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific[J]. Haiyang Xuebao,2023, 45(3):1–13 doi: 10.12284/hyxb2023036

环境引导气流两类典型年际模态与西北太平洋热带气旋活动的联系

doi: 10.12284/hyxb2023036
基金项目: 国家自然科学基金优秀青年项目(41922033);江苏省大学生创新创业训练计划(201910300096Y)
详细信息
    作者简介:

    杨昕玮(1999-),男,浙江省宁波市人,主要从事热带气旋研究。E-mail:xwyang_123@163.com

    通讯作者:

    赵海坤,男,教授,研究方向为台风气候动力学与台风预测技术研制。E-mail:haikunzhao@nuist.edu.cn

  • 中图分类号: P444;P721

Two leading modes of environmental steering flow in the interannual time scale and their associations with tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific

  • 摘要: 本文基于中国气象局上海台风研究所整编的热带气旋(Tropical Cyclone, TC)最佳路径资料及美国NCEP/NCAR月平均再分析资料,采用经验正交函数分解、合成分析、相关分析等统计方法,分析了1979−2016年7−9月西北太平洋地区海盆尺度大尺度环境引导气流的年际变化与热带气旋活动之间的联系。结果表明:(1)西北太平洋地区夏季大尺度环境引导气流在年际尺度上存在两个典型模态。其中第一典型模态大尺度环境引导气流呈现经向分布的偶极型环流型,该模态与东部型ENSO密切相关;第二典型模态大尺度环境引导气流呈明显的局地反气旋环流形态,其与中部型ENSO和热带大西洋海温异常紧密关联。(2)大尺度环境引导气流第一典型模态异常年份之间TC活动(生成位置、路径、强度和持续时间)具有显著差异,TC生成空间分布南北差异显著;TC路径尤其西北行和西行盛行路径也具有显著差异。(3)第二典型模态异常年份之间,TC生成位置和路径差异与第一模态呈现显著不同,TC生成位置呈现较为明显的东西向分布,在东南象限TC生成差异尤为显著,TC路径的差异主要体现在西北行和近海转向两类盛行路径。
  • 图  1  引导气流EOF第一、第二主要年际空间模态(a,c)及标准化时间系数(b,d)

    灰色实线为5点平滑处理结果,灰色虚线为线性倾向

    Fig.  1  Steering flow (a, c) and the standardized time coefficient (b, d) of EOF1 and EOF2

    5-point smoothing is denoted by the solid gray line; the linear tendency is denoted by the dashed gray line

    图  2  EOF第一、第二主要年际模态时间系数与海表温度相关系数的空间分布和引导气流EOF第一、第二主要年际模态(绿色矢量箭头)

    打点为通过90%显著性检验

    Fig.  2  Spatial distribution of correlation coefficent between time coefficient and sea surface temperature of EOF1 and EOF2 and steering flow of EOF1 and EOF2 (green vectors)

    Dots denote areas that are significant at the 95% confidence level

    图  3  EOF第一、第二主要年际模态时间系数与赤道西太平洋(5°S~5°N,130°~160°E)(a,b)、赤道中东太平洋(10°S~10°N,100°W~180°)(c,d)、赤道东太平洋(10°S~10°N,80°~120°W)(e,f)、赤道大西洋(10°S~20°N,70°W~0°)(g,h)7−9月海表温度进行相关性分析

    显著性:*代表>90%、**代表>95%、***代表>99%;海表温度为标准化温度

    Fig.  3  Correlation analysis between time coefficient of EOF1 and EOF2 and sea surface temperature in the equatorial western Pacific (5°S−5°N, 130°−160°E) (a, b), the equatorial central and eastern Pacific (10°S−10°N, 100°W−180°) (c, d), the equatorial eastern Pacific (10°S−10°N, 80°−120°W) (e, f) and the equatorial Atlantic (10°S−20°N, 70°W−0°) (g, h)

    Significance: * represents >90%, ** represents >95%, *** represents >99%; the sea surface temperature is the standardized temprature

    图  4  EOF第一(左侧)、第二(右侧)主要年际模态下正负异常年前一年秋季(SON)、冬季(DJF),同年春季(MAM)、夏季(JJA)海表温度及850 hPa风矢量场(黑色矢量箭头,单位:m/s)合成差异

    Fig.  4  Sea surface temperature and 850 hPa winds (black vectors, unit: m/s) composite differences between positive and negative years of EOF1 (left) and EOF2 (right) from the previous fall (SON) and winter (DJF), concurrent spring (MAM) and summer (JJA)

    图  5  EOF第一、第二主要年际模态正负异常年份热带气旋平均路径密度差异(a,b)及生成位置密度差异(c,d)

    Fig.  5  Mean TC track density difference (a, b) and TC genesis density location difference (c, d) between the positive and negative years of EOF1 and EOF2

    图  6  EOF第一、第二主要年际模态正负异常年TC路径

    黑色线为TC合成路径,不同颜色的线代表10 m最大风速

    Fig.  6  TC tracks during the positive and negative phases of EOF1 and EOF2

    Black lines represent the prevailing TC tracks; lines with different colors represent the maximum 10 m wind speed

    图  7  3类TC(Type A、Type B、Type C)路径的10 m最大风速、生成位置(红色圆点)和每类集群中心(黑色实线)

    Fig.  7  Maximum 10 m wind speed, genesis location (red dots) and cluster center of each type (black lines) of three types of TC track (Type A, Type B, Type C)

    图  8  EOF第一、第二主要年际模态正负异常年涡度场(单位:10−6 s−1)叠加850 hPa风矢量场(单位:m/s)(a,b)、200~850 hPa垂直风切变(c,d,单位:m/s)、700 hPa相对湿度(e,f) 、500 hPa高度处垂直速度(g,h,单位:10−2 Pa/s)差异

    绿色等值线为平均路径密度;打点为通过95%显著性检验

    Fig.  8  Difference of vorticity fields (unit: 10−6 s−1) superposition 850 hPa wind vector field (unit: m/s) (a, b), vertical wind shear (unit: m/s) between 200−850 hPa (c, d), relative humidity of 700 hPa (e, f), and vertical velocity of 500 hPa height (g, h, unit: 10−2 Pa/s) between positive and negative years of EOF1 and EOF2

    Green counters are the density of TC tracks; dots are the value that is significant at a 95% confidence level

    表  1  EOF第一、第二主要年际模态正负异常年年份

    Tab.  1  Positive and negative anomaly years of EOF1 and EOF2

    EOF第一主要年际模态
    正异常年198819941998200020012008201020112012
    负异常年198019821983198619871991199320142015
    EOF第二主要年际模态
    正异常年198319851988199519982003200820102014
    负异常年198219861994199720022006201220152016
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  两个模态正负异常年各类年TC频数差值

    Tab.  2  Annual TC frequency difference between positive and negative years of EOF1 and EOF2

    模态Type AType BType C
    EOF1−1.33**1.78*0.78
    EOF2−1.78**0−1.33
    注:*代表显著性大于90%,**代表显著性大于95%。
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  3  两个模态正负异常年TC特征差值

    Tab.  3  TC characteristic difference between positive and negative years of EOF1 and EOF2

    个数生命周期/h初始纬度/(°)初始经度/(°)PDI/(106 m3·s−3最大风速/(m·s−1平均风速/(m·s−1
    EOF11.22−38.39**2.99***−4.60−6.06**−6.64***−3.30***
    EOF2−3.11*−44.08***1.17−7.80**−9.51***−3.34*−1.50
    注:*代表显著性大于90%;**代表显著性大于95%;***代表显著性大于99%;初始纬度和经度以北纬和东经为基准。
    下载: 导出CSV
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  • 收稿日期:  2021-10-10
  • 修回日期:  2022-10-08
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