基于混合效应模型的海州湾方氏云鳚的生长动态及其影响因素分析

赵天亚; 杨晓改; 李勋; 薛莹; 徐宾铎; 纪毓鹏; 任一平; 张崇良

doi:10.12284/hyxb2023028

基于混合效应模型的海州湾方氏云鳚的生长动态及其影响因素分析

doi: 10.12284/hyxb2023028

赵天亚^{1, 3,},
杨晓改⁴,
李勋⁵,
薛莹^{1, 2, 3},
徐宾铎^{1, 3},
纪毓鹏^{1, 3},
任一平^{1, 2, 3},
张崇良^{1, 3, ,}

1.
中国海洋大学水产学院，山东青岛 266003
2.
青岛海洋科学与技术试点国家实验室海洋渔业科学与食物产出过程功能实验室，山东青岛 266237
3.
海州湾渔业生态系统教育部野外科学观测研究站，山东青岛 266003
4.
中国农业出版社，北京 100125
5.
青岛西海岸新区海洋发展局，山东青岛 266400

基金项目: 国家重点研发计划（2018YFD0900906）。

详细信息

作者简介:
赵天亚（2002-），男，山东省菏泽市人，主要从事渔业资源评估。E-mail: zhaotianya0519@163.com

通讯作者:
张崇良，副教授，主要从事渔业资源评估与生态系统模拟。E-mail: zhangclg@ouc.edu.cn

中图分类号: S932.4
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2022-07-13
- 修回日期: 2022-09-16
- 网络出版日期: 2022-09-29
- 刊出日期: 2023-01-09

Growth dynamics of Pholis fangi in Haizhou Bay and influencing factors explored by mixed-effect models

Zhao Tianya^{1, 3
,},
Yang Xiaogai⁴,
Li Xun⁵,
Xue Ying^{1, 2, 3},
Xu Binduo^{1, 3},
Ji Yupeng^{1, 3},
Ren Yiping^{1, 2, 3},
Zhang Chongliang^{1, 3
, ,}

1.
Fisheries College, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266003, China
2.
Laboratory for Marine Fisheries Science and Food Production Processes, Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (Qingdao), Qingdao 266237, China
3.
Field Observation and Research Station of Haizhou Bay Fishery Ecosystem, Ministry of Education, Qingdao 266003, China
4.
China Agriculture Press, Beijing 100125, China
5.
Marine Development Bureau in Qingdao West Coast New Area, Qingdao 266400, China

摘要

摘要: 本研究利用2015−2019年海州湾方氏云鳚（Pholis fangi）耳石样本，基于线性混合效应模型（LMEM）研究了方氏云鳚在2013−2018年内生长速度的年际变化，评估了不同年龄阶段的方氏云鳚的生长对底层温度、叶绿素含量和种群密度等外界因素的响应。结果表明：方氏云鳚个体在不同年龄的耳石增量具有明显差异，0龄平均耳石增量为0.327 mm，显著高于高龄耳石增量。模型随机效应表明，方氏云鳚的生长速度在2013−2016年呈现逐步变快的趋势，在2016−2018年波动较为明显。方氏云鳚0龄时期生长速度的主要影响因素为底层温度和种群密度，其生长速度随温度的上升先加快后降低，随种群密度的增加而降低。方氏云鳚1龄时期的生长速度受底层温度和饵料等环境因素的影响不显著，体现了成体对环境的适应能力。本研究深入解析了鱼类的生长动态对生物和非生物因素的响应，有助于应对未来气候变化对渔业生态系统的影响。
- 方氏云鳚 /
- 耳石 /
- 环境因子 /
- 生长速度 /
- 线性混合效应模型 /
- 海州湾
Abstract: According to the Pholis fangi otoliths collected from bottom-trawl surveys in Haizhou Bay during from 2015 to 2019, linear mixed-effects model (LMEM) was used to study the interannual variation of growth rate of P. fangi from 2013 to 2018 and assess the response of the growth of P. fangi at different ages to external environmental factors such as bottom temperature, chlorophyll content and population density. The results showed that the otolith increment of P. fangi differed significantly between ages, with the mean otolith increment of 0.327 mm at 0 year old, significantly higher than that at another ages. The random-effects showed that the growth rate of P. fangi showed an increasing trend from 2013 to 2015, with a fluctuating trend from 2016 to 2018. The main factors affecting the growth of P. fangi at 0 year old were bottom temperature and population density. The growth rate increased and then decreased with the increase of bottom temperature, and decreased with the increase of population density. The effect of environmental factors on the growth rate of P. fangi at 1 year old were not significant, reflecting the ability of adults to adapt to the environment. This study provided insight into the growth dynamics of fish in response to biotic and abiotic factors, which will help to cope with the impact of climate change on fishery ecosystems.
- Pholis fangi /
- otolith /
- environmental factors /
- growth rate /
- linear mixed-effects model /
- Haizhou Bay

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图 1 海州湾及邻近海域调查区域

Fig. 1 Survey areas in Haizhou Bay and its adjacent waters

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 海州湾方氏云鳚耳石增量随年龄的变化

Fig. 2 Change in otolith increment of in Pholis fangi Haizhou Bay with different ages

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 3 内因模型的年龄与年份效应

耳石增量年际变化由最优内因模型中年份随机效应估算得出，图中灰色区域为估算值±标准差

Fig. 3 Age and Year effects of the intrinsic model

Interannual variation of otolith increment are estimated by the Year random effect in the best intrinsic model, and the gray area is estimated value±SE

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 4 全年平均底层温度对方氏云鳚耳石增量的影响

Fig. 4 Effect of annual average bottom temperature on otolith increment of Pholis fangi

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 5 环境因子对方氏云鳚0龄耳石增量的影响

Fig. 5 Effect of environmental factors on otolith increment of Pholis fangi at age 0

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 方氏云鳚不同年龄耳石增量的变异性

Tab. 1 Variation of otolith increment of Pholis fangiat different ages

年龄/a	耳石增量范围/mm	平均值/mm	标准差	变异系数/%
0	0.194～0.399	0.327	0.028	8.68
1	0.124～0.283	0.204	0.036	17.77
2	0.093～0.211	0.151	0.030	19.81
3	0.090～0.146	0.116	0.025	21.15

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表 2 内因模型的拟合

Tab. 2 Fitting of the best intrinsic model

模型	固定效应	随机效应	AICc	边际R²	条件R²
M1	Age	（1\|FishID）	−934.11	0.841	0.845
M2	Age	（1\|FishID）+（1\|Cohort）	−932.10	0.841	0.844
M3	Age	（1\|FishID）+（1\|Year）	−940.77	0.835	0.859
注：（1\|FishID）、（1\|Cohort）和（1\|Year）分别为个体编号、世代和年份的截距随机效应；Age为年龄固定效应。

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表 3 因子多重共线性检验结果

Tab. 3 Results of multicollinearity test of factors

因子	全年	春季	夏季	秋季	冬季
底层温度	1.041	4.048	2.356	6.145	3.280
叶绿素含量	2.282	2.403	2.250	2.280	2.496
种群密度	2.233	2.146	1.080	4.174	1.568
注: 表中数字为方差膨胀因子。

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表 4 最优外因模型筛选结果

Tab. 4 Results of best extrinsic models screening

年龄	模型	模型结构	AICc	R²
0龄	Model 1	BT	−467.35	0.229
	Model 2	SprBT + Chl + Den	−470.49	0.283
	Model 3	SumBT + SumBT²	−467.59	0.247
	Model 4	AutBT + AutBT² + Chl	−469.39	0.275
	Model 5	WinBT + Chl + Den	−473.10	0.301
1龄	Model 6	BT	−349.98	0.025
	Model 7	SprBT	−349.24	0.017
	Model 8	SumBT	−349.23	0.017
	Model 9	Den+Chl	−348.16	0.029
	Model 10	WinBT	−348.46	0.009
注: BT、SprBT、SumBT、AutBT、WinBT、Chl和Den分别代表全年平均底温、春季平均底温、夏季平均底温、秋季平均底温、冬季平均底温、叶绿素含量和种群密度。

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