留言板

尊敬的读者、作者、审稿人, 关于本刊的投稿、审稿、编辑和出版的任何问题, 您可以本页添加留言。我们将尽快给您答复。谢谢您的支持!

姓名
邮箱
手机号码
标题
留言内容
验证码

水温变暖对西北太平洋柔鱼潜在栖息地分布的影响

龚彩霞 陈新军 高峰 余为

龚彩霞,陈新军,高峰,等. 水温变暖对西北太平洋柔鱼潜在栖息地分布的影响[J]. 海洋学报,2022,44(9):1–8 doi: 10.12284/hyxb2022134
引用本文: 龚彩霞,陈新军,高峰,等. 水温变暖对西北太平洋柔鱼潜在栖息地分布的影响[J]. 海洋学报,2022,44(9):1–8 doi: 10.12284/hyxb2022134
Gong Caixia,Chen Xinjun,Gao Feng, et al. Impacts of ocean warming on potential habitat distribution of Ommastrephes bartramii in the Northwest Pacific Ocean[J]. Haiyang Xuebao,2022, 44(9):1–8 doi: 10.12284/hyxb2022134
Citation: Gong Caixia,Chen Xinjun,Gao Feng, et al. Impacts of ocean warming on potential habitat distribution of Ommastrephes bartramii in the Northwest Pacific Ocean[J]. Haiyang Xuebao,2022, 44(9):1–8 doi: 10.12284/hyxb2022134

水温变暖对西北太平洋柔鱼潜在栖息地分布的影响

doi: 10.12284/hyxb2022134
基金项目: 国家自然科学基金(41876141,41906073)。
详细信息
    作者简介:

    龚彩霞(1986-),女,湖南省益阳市人,博士研究生,研究方向为渔业海洋学。E-mail: cxgong@shou.edu.cn

    通讯作者:

    高峰,男,讲师,研究方向为渔场预报及渔业GIS。E-mail: gaofeng@shou.edu.cn

  • 中图分类号: S932.4

Impacts of ocean warming on potential habitat distribution of Ommastrephes bartramii in the Northwest Pacific Ocean

  • 摘要: 根据影响西北太平洋柔鱼栖息地分布的主导环境因子—海表面温度,基于最大熵模型,利用1996−2005年气候历史数据和两种不同情景(RCP4.5和RCP8.5)下的气候预估数据,分析了1996−2005年、2021−2030年、2051−2060年、2090−2100年主要捕捞月份(7−10月)柔鱼潜在栖息地变化。结果表明,柔鱼渔场纬度方向空间分布呈季节性南北移动;随着未来气候变化,在RCP4.5和RCP8.5两种情景下,2021−2030年、2051−2060年、2090−2100年7−10月柔鱼潜在栖息地分布较1996−2005年7−10月均呈现向北极移动趋势,适宜面积增加。推测柔鱼渔场季节性南北移动可能受各月适宜海表面温度范围变化的影响,在RCP4.5情景下,到21世纪末,各月柔鱼潜在最适宜生境向北移动1°~2°,适宜面积增加3%~13%;在RCP8.5情景下,到21世纪末,各月柔鱼潜在最适宜生境向北移动3°~5°,适宜面积增加42%~80%。
  • 图  1  1996−2005年7−10月中国鱿钓船各月柔鱼渔场作业分布

    Fig.  1  Monthly distributions of Ommastrephes bartramii fishing grounds for the Chinese squid-jigging vessels from July to October of 1996−2005

    图  2  7−10月柔鱼渔场月均SST年代际变化预测

    Fig.  2  Monthly variations of sea surface temperature for fishing grounds of Ommastrephes bartramii from July to October

    图  3  1996−2005年7−10月柔鱼潜在栖息地适宜性对SST的响应曲线

    红色为MaxEnt模型10次运算平均值;蓝色为标准差

    Fig.  3  Monthly response of potential habitat suitability for Ommastrephes bartramii to SST from July to October of 1996−2005

    Red represent mean of the 10 replicate MaxEnt model runs; blue represent the standard deviation

    图  4  柔鱼潜在栖息地适宜面积比年代际变化预测(相比于2000年)

    Fig.  4  Change in proportion of projected suitable habitat area of Ommastrephes bartramii (compared to what was available in 2000)

    图  5  2000年,2025年,2055年和2095年7−10月柔鱼潜在栖息地分布

    Fig.  5  Projected potential habitat distribution of Ommastrephes bartramii from July to October in 2000, 2025, 2055, and 2095.

    图  6  气候变化情景下柔鱼渔场SST上升情况(相比于2000年)

    Fig.  6  SST rising in fishing grounds of Ommastrephes bartramii under change scenarios (compared to what was available in 2000)

    表  1  1996−2005年7−10月柔鱼潜在栖息地分布的MaxEnt模型统计测试结果

    Tab.  1  Summary statistics derived from MaxEnt models for squid's potential habitat from July to October of 1996-2005

    月份样本总数(NAUC值标准差(SD)
    7月1240.9380.006
    8月970.9430.008
    9月880.9500.006
    10月870.9490.006
    下载: 导出CSV
  • [1] Tylianakis J M, Didham R K, Bascompte J, et al. Global change and species interactions in terrestrial ecosystems[J]. Ecology Letters, 2008, 11(12): 1351−1363. doi: 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2008.01250.x
    [2] Cheung W W L, Lam V W Y, Sarmiento J L, et al. Projecting global marine biodiversity impacts under climate change scenarios[J]. Fish and Fisheries, 2009, 10(3): 235−251. doi: 10.1111/j.1467-2979.2008.00315.x
    [3] Cheung W W L, Lam V W Y, Sarmiento J L, et al. Large-scale redistribution of maximum fisheries catch potential in the global ocean under climate change[J]. Global Change Biology, 2010, 16(1): 24−35. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.01995.x
    [4] Freeman L A, Kleypas J A, Miller A J. Coral reef habitat response to climate change scenarios[J]. PLoS ONE, 2013, 8(12): e82404. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0082404
    [5] Cheung W W L, Watson R, Pauly D. Signature of ocean warming in global fisheries catch[J]. Nature, 2013, 497(7449): 365−368. doi: 10.1038/nature12156
    [6] Jones M C, Cheung W W L. Multi-model ensemble projections of climate change effects on global marine biodiversity[J]. ICES Journal of Marine Science, 2015, 72(3): 741−752. doi: 10.1093/icesjms/fsu172
    [7] 王尧耕, 陈新军. 世界大洋性经济柔鱼类资源及其渔业[M]. 北京: 海洋出版社, 2005.

    Wang Yaogeng, Chen Xinjun. The Resource and Biology of Economic Oceanic Squid in the World[M]. Beijing: China Ocean Press, 2005.
    [8] Ichii T, Mahapatra K, Sakai M, et al. Changes in abundance of the neon flying squid Ommastrephes bartramii in relation to climate change in the central North Pacific Ocean[J]. Marine Ecology Progress Series, 2011, 441: 151−164. doi: 10.3354/meps09365
    [9] Yu Wei, Chen Xinjun, Yi Qian, et al. Influence of oceanic climate variability on stock level of western winter-spring cohort of Ommastrephes bartramii in the Northwest Pacific Ocean[J]. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 2016, 37(17): 3974−3994. doi: 10.1080/01431161.2016.1204477
    [10] Alabia I D, Saitoh S I, Mugo R, et al. Seasonal potential fishing ground prediction of neon flying squid (Ommastrephes bartramii) in the western and central North Pacific[J]. Fisheries Oceanography, 2015, 24(2): 190−203. doi: 10.1111/fog.12102
    [11] Gong Caixia, Chen Xinjun, Gao Feng, et al. Importance of weighting for multi-variable habitat suitability index model: a case study of winter-spring cohort of Ommastrephes bartramii in the northwestern Pacific Ocean[J]. Journal of Ocean University of China, 2012, 11(2): 241−248. doi: 10.1007/s11802-012-1898-6
    [12] 陈新军, 刘必林, 田思泉, 等. 利用基于表温因子的栖息地模型预测西北太平洋柔鱼(Ommastrephes bartramii)渔场[J]. 海洋与湖沼, 2009, 40(6): 707−713. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:0029-814X.2009.06.006

    Chen Xinjun, Liu Bilin, Tian Siquan, et al. Forecasting the fishing ground of Ommastrephes bartramii with SSJ-based habitat suitability modelling in Northwestern Pacific[J]. Oceanologia et Limnologia Sinica, 2009, 40(6): 707−713. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:0029-814X.2009.06.006
    [13] Cao Jie, Chen Xinjun, Chen Yong. Influence of surface oceanographic variability on abundance of the western winter-spring cohort of neon flying squid Ommastrephes Bartramii in the Northwesten Pacific Ocean[J]. Marine Ecology Progress Series, 2009, 381(12): 119−127.
    [14] 赵宗慈, 罗勇, 黄建斌. 从检验CMIP5气候模式看CMIP6地球系统模式的发展[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2018, 14(6): 643−648.

    Zhao Zongci, Luo Yong, Huang Jianbin. The detection of the CMIP5 climate model to see the development of CMIP6 earth system models[J]. Climate Change Research, 2018, 14(6): 643−648.
    [15] IPCC. 气候变化2014: 综合报告[R]. 日内瓦: IPCC, 2014: 1-151.

    IPCC. Climate change 2014: synthesis report. Contribution of working Groups Ⅰ, Ⅱ and Ⅲ to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change[R]. Geneva, Switzerland: IPCC, 2014: 1-151.
    [16] Gent P R, Danabasoglu G, Donner L J, et al. The community climate system model version 4[J]. Journal of Climate, 2011, 24(19): 4973−4991. doi: 10.1175/2011JCLI4083.1
    [17] Long M C, Lindsay K, Peacock S, et al. Twentieth-century oceanic carbon uptake and storage in CESM1(BGC)[J]. Journal of Climate, 2013, 26(18): 6775−6800. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00184.1
    [18] Phillips S J, Anderson R P, Schapire R E. Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions[J]. Ecological Modelling, 2006, 190(3/4): 231−259.
    [19] 陈芃, 陈新军. 基于最大熵模型分析西南大西洋阿根廷滑柔鱼栖息地分布[J]. 水产学报, 2016, 40(6): 893−902.

    Chen Peng, Chen Xinjun. Analysis of habitat distribution of Argentine shortfin squid (Illex argentinus) in the southwest Atlantic Ocean using maximum entropy model[J]. Journal of Fisheries of China, 2016, 40(6): 893−902.
    [20] Phillips S J. A brief tutorial on Maxent[EB/OL]. [2019-03-07] http://biodiversityinformatics.amnh.org/open_source/maxent/.
    [21] Ichii T, Mahapatra K, Sakai M, et al. Life history of the neon flying squid: effect of the oceanographic regime in the North Pacific Ocean[J]. Marine Ecology Progress Series, 2009, 378: 1−11. doi: 10.3354/meps07873
    [22] 陈新军, 田思泉. 西北太平洋海域柔鱼的产量分布及作业渔场与表温的关系研究[J]. 中国海洋大学学报: (自然科学版), 2005, 35(1): 101−107.

    Chen Xinjun, Tian Siquan. Study on the catch distribution and relationship between fishing ground and surface temperature for Ommastrephes Bartrami in the Northwestern Pacific Ocean[J]. Periodical of Ocean University of China, 2005, 35(1): 101−107.
    [23] 余为. 西北太平洋柔鱼冬春生群对气候与环境变化的响应机制研究[D]. 上海: 上海海洋大学, 2016.

    Yu Wei. Response mechanism of winter-spring cohort of neon flying squid to the climatic and environmental variability in the Northwest Pacific Ocean[D]. Shanghai: Shanghai Ocean University, 2016
    [24] 刘娜, 王辉, 张蕴斐. 基于IPCC预测结果的北太平洋海表面温度变化分析[J]. 海洋学报, 2014, 36(7): 9−16.

    Liu Na, Wang Hui, Zhang Yunfei. Variation of sea surface temperature in the North Pacific based on different IPCC scenarios[J]. Haiyang Xuebao, 2014, 36(7): 9−16.
    [25] 曹杰. 西北太平洋柔鱼资源评估与管理[D]. 上海: 上海海洋大学, 2010.

    Cao Jie. Stock assessment and risk analysis of management strategies for neon flying squid (Ommastrephes bartramii) in the Northwest Pacific Ocean[D]. Shanghai: Shanghai Ocean University, 2010.
    [26] 范江涛, 陈新军, 曹杰, 等. 西北太平洋柔鱼渔场变化与黑潮的关系[J]. 上海海洋大学学报, 2010, 19(3): 378−384.

    Fan Jiangtao, Chen Xinjun, Cao Jie, et al. The variation of fishing ground of Ommastrephes bartramii in the Northwest Pacific concerning with Kuroshio current[J]. Journal of Shanghai Ocean University, 2010, 19(3): 378−384.
    [27] FAO. Climate change implications for fisheries and aquaculture: summary of the findings of the intergovernmental panel on climate change fifth assessment report [R]. Rome: FAO, 2016.
    [28] Nguyen K D T, Morley S A, Lai C H, et al. Upper temperature limits of tropical marine ectotherms: global warming implications[J]. PLoS One, 6(12): e29340.
    [29] Alabia I D, Saitoh S I, Igarashi H, et al. Future projected impacts of ocean warming to potential squid habitat in western and central North Pacific[J]. ICES Journal of Marine Science, 2016, 73(5): 1343−1356. doi: 10.1093/icesjms/fsv203
    [30] Shultz A D, Zuckerman Z C, Tewart H A, et al. Seasonal blood chemistry response of sub-tropical nearshore fishes to climate change[J]. Conservation Physiology, 2014, 2(1): cou028. doi: 10.1093/conphys/cou028
    [31] Jones M C, Dye S R, Pinnegar J K, et al. Modelling commercial fish distributions: prediction and assessment using different approaches[J]. Ecological Modelling, 2012, 225: 133−145. doi: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2011.11.003
  • 加载中
图(6) / 表(1)
计量
  • 文章访问数:  46
  • HTML全文浏览量:  11
  • PDF下载量:  26
  • 被引次数: 0
出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2019-08-14
  • 修回日期:  2020-01-17

目录

    /

    返回文章
    返回