影响夏季北极航道航行的近地面气象要素时空变化特征分析

田忠翔; 孙虎林; 李志强; 宋晓姜; 孟上; 陈志昆; 李敏; 李丙瑞

doi:10.12284/hyxb2022133

影响夏季北极航道航行的近地面气象要素时空变化特征分析

doi: 10.12284/hyxb2022133

1.
国家海洋环境预报中心自然资源部海洋灾害预报技术重点实验室，北京 100081
2.
中国极地研究中心，上海 200136

基金项目: 国家重点研究计划课题（2018YFA0605902）

详细信息

作者简介:
田忠翔（1986-），男，山东省成武县人，主要从事极地海冰和大气研究。E-mail: tianzx@nmefc.cn

通讯作者:
孙虎林，男，高级工程师，主要从事极地大气研究。E-mail: shl@nmefc.cn

中图分类号: P732.1
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2021-12-14
- 修回日期: 2022-05-28
- 网络出版日期: 2022-08-02
- 刊出日期: 2022-11-03

Analysis on the characteristics of the temporal and spatial variation of near-surface meteorological parameters affecting the navigation in Arctic passage in summer

1.
Key Laboratory of Marine Hazards Forecasting, National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, Ministry of Natural Resources, Beijing 100081, China
2.
Polar Research Institute of China, Shanghai 200136, China

摘要

摘要: 本文利用ERA5再分析数据和我国北极科学考察期间获取的走航气象观测数据，分析了夏季影响船舶通航北极航道的关键近地面气象要素的时空变化特征。结果表明，7–8月的天气条件最适宜船舶在北极航道航行，9月低温、大风和大浪天气显著增多，对船舶航行影响较大，10月的天气更加恶劣，对船舶航行的挑战更大。低温天气主要出现在各航道的中段，大风和大浪天气集中在航道两端的海域。除北极中心区和10月的挪威海和巴伦支海以外，其余时间的海域出现大风和大浪天气的概率以增加趋势为主，但具有较大的年际变化。根据现有北极航道气象观测数据分析发现，东北航道能见度最差，西北航道能见度最好，中央航道居中。
- 北极航道 /
- 气温 /
- 风速 /
- 有效波高 /
- 能见度
Abstract: Based on the ERA5 reanalysis data and the meteorological observation data obtained during Chinese Arctic Research Expeditions, the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of the key near-surface meteorological parameters that influence ship navigation in the Arctic passages in summer are analyzed. The results show that the weather conditions in July and August are the most suitable for ship navigation in the Arctic passages. The low temperature, strong wind and huge wave weather increase significantly in September, which impacts ship navigation greatly. The weather in October is even worse, posing a quit challenge to ship navigation. Low temperature mainly occurs in the middle of each passage, and strong wind and huge wave are concentrated in the areas at both ends of the passages. Both the strong wind probability and huge wave probability show a decreasing tendency in the entire Arctic passages in summer with large interannual changes except for the Norwegian Sea and Barents Sea in October and the central Arctic in summer. According to the observation data, it is found that the northeast passage has the poorest visibility, the northwest passage has the best visibility, and the trans-Arctic passage has moderate visibility.
- Arctic passage /
- temperature /
- wind speed /
- significant wave height /
- visibility

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图 1 北极东北航道（紫色实线）、西北航道（红色实线）和中央航道（蓝色实线）

NE-I、NE-II和NE-III分别为北极东北航道的3个航段，NW-I、NW-II和NW-III分别为北极西北航道的3个航段，橙色圆点表示相应航段的起止点

Fig. 1 Arctic northeast passage (purple solid line), northwest passage (red solid line) and trans-Arctic passage (blue solid line)

NE-I, NE-II and NE-III denote the three segments of the Arctic northeast passage, respectively. NW-I, NW-II and NW-III denote the three segments of the Arctic northwest passage, respectively. The orange dots denote the starting and ending locations of the corresponding segments of the three passages

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图 2 我国部分北极考察航次航迹

Fig. 2 Track maps of some of Chinese Arctic research expeditions

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图 3 1979–2020年7–10月平均2 m气温分布（a, d, g, j）、平均低温天气概率分布（b, e, h, k）和低温天气概率变化趋势（c, f, i, l）

低温天气概率分布图中的白色区域为低温概率等于0的区域，低温天气概率变化趋势图中打点的区域为显著性超过95%的区域

Fig. 3 Spatial distribution of the average of 2 m air temperature (a, d, g, j), the average of the low temperature weather probability (b, e, h, k) and the tendency of the low temperature weather probability (c, f, i, l) in July to October from 1979 to 2020

The areas shaded with white in the maps of the low temperature weather probability represent zero low temperature weather probability. The areas with a significance of more than 95% in the maps of the tendency of the low temperature probability are dotted

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图 4 1979–2020年7–10月平均10 m风速分布（a, d, g, j）、平均大风天气概率分布（b, e, h, k）和大风天气概率变化趋势（c, f, i, l）

大风天气概率变化趋势图中黑色实线内的区域为显著性超过95%的区域

Fig. 4 Spatial distribution of the average of 10 m wind speed (a, d, g, j), the average of the strong wind weather probability (b, e, h, k) and the tendency of the strong wind weather probability (c, f, i, l) in July to October from 1979 to 2020

The areas with a significance of more than 95% in the maps of the tendency of the low temperature weather probability are surrounded by solid black lines

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图 5 1979–2020年7–10月平均有效波高空间分布（a, d, g, j）、平均大浪天气概率空间分布（b, e, h, k）和大浪天气概率变化趋势（c, f, i, l）

白色区域为海冰覆盖区域，大浪天气概率变化趋势图中的打点区域为显著性超过95%的区域

Fig. 5 Spatial distribution of the average of the significant wave height (a, d, g, j), the average of the huge wave weather probability (b, e, h, k) and the tendency of the huge wave weather probability (c, f, i, l) in July to October from 1979 to 2020

The region covered by sea ice is shaded with white, the areas with a significance of more than 95% in the maps of the tendency of the low temperature probability are dotted

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图 6 重点海域示意图

Fig. 6 Schematic diagram of key sea areas

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图 7 1979–2020年区域A（a）、B（b）、C（c）和D（d）内7月平均低温天气概率、大风天气概率和大浪天气概率距平（实线）及线性变化趋势（虚线）。图中给出了显著性超过90%的线性拟合变化速率

Fig. 7 The anomaly (solid lines) and the tendency (dashed lines) of the average of the low temperature weather probability, strong wind weather probability and the huge wave weather probability within region A (a), B (b), C (c) and D (d) in July during 1979–2020. These tendencies with a significance of more than 90% are given

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图 8 1979–2020年区域A（a）、B（b）、C（c）和D（d）内8月平均低温天气概率、大风天气概率和大浪天气概率距平（实线）及变化趋势（虚线）。图中给出了显著性超过90%的线性拟合变化速率

Fig. 8 The anomaly (solid lines) and the tendency (dashed lines) of the average of the low temperature weather probability, strong wind weather probability and the huge wave weather probability within region A (a), B (b), C (c) and D (d) in August during 1979–2020. These tendencies with a significance of more than 90% are given

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图 9 1979–2020年区域A（a）、B（b）、C（c）和D（d）内9月平均低温天气概率、大风天气概率和大浪天气概率距平（实线）及变化趋势（虚线）。图中给出了显著性超过90%的线性拟合变化速率

Fig. 9 The anomaly (solid lines) and the tendency (dashed lines) of the average of the low temperature weather probability, strong wind weather probability and the huge wave weather probability within region A (a), B (b), C (c) and D (d) in September during 1979–2020. These tendencies with a significance of more than 90% are given

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图 10 1979–2020年海域A（a）、B（b）、C（c）和D（d）内10月平均低温天气概率、大风天气概率和大浪天气概率距平（实线）及变化趋势（虚线）。图中给出了显著性超过90%的线性拟合变化速率

Fig. 10 The anomaly (solid lines) and the tendency (dashed lines) of the average of the low temperature weather probability, strong wind weather probability and the huge wave weather probability within region A (a), B (b), C (c) and D (d) in October during 1979–2020. These tendencies with a significance of more than 90% are given

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图 11 2012年“雪龙”号穿越东北航道期间近地面气象要素走航观测结果

a. 海平面气压、风速、浪高及纬度时间序列；b. 气温、相对湿度、能见度及纬度时间序列；c. 风玫瑰图；d. 能见度（V）概率分布

Fig. 11 The results of the near-surface meteorological parameters obtained during Xuelong vessel crossing the Arctic northeast passage in 2012

a. The time series of sea level pressure, wind speed, wave height and the latitude; b. the time series of air temperature, relative humidity, visibility and the latitude; c. wind rose plot; d. the percentage distribution of different visibility (V)

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图 12 2017年“雪龙”号穿越西北航道期间近地面气象要素走航观测结果

a. 海平面气压、风速、浪高及纬度时间序列；b. 气温、相对湿度、能见度及纬度时间序列；c. 风玫瑰图；d. 能见度（V）概率分布

Fig. 12 The results of the near-surface meteorological parameters obtained during Xuelong vessel crossing the Arctic northwest passage in 2017

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图 13 2012年“雪龙”号穿越中央航道期间近地面气象要素走航观测结果

a. 海平面气压、风速、浪高及纬度时间序列；b. 气温、相对湿度、能见度及纬度时间序列；c. 风玫瑰图；d. 能见度（V）概率分布

Fig. 13 The results of the near-surface meteorological parameters obtained during Xuelong vessel crossing the trans-Arctic northwest passage in 2012

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图 14 2017年雪龙号穿越中央航道期间近地面气象要素走航观测结果

a. 海平面气压、风速、浪高及纬度时间序列；b. 气温、相对湿度、能见度及纬度时间序列；c. 风玫瑰图；d. 能见度（V）概率分布

Fig. 14 The results of the near-surface meteorological parameters obtained during Xuelong vessel crossing the trans-Arctic northwest passage in 2017

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图 15 7个常规航次70°N以北考察海域近地面气象要素统计

a. 平均海平面气压（蓝色实线）、最低海平面气压（蓝色虚线）和平均风速（红色实线）；b. 平均气温（紫色实线）、最低气温（紫色虚线）和平均相对湿度（蓝色实线）；c. 6级（淡紫色）和7级（深紫色）大风过程次数；d. 能见度在1~10 km比例（浅灰色）和能见度≤1 km比例（深灰色）

Fig. 15 Statistics of the near-surface meteorological parameters in the area north of 70°N during the seven conventional expeditions

a. The blue solid line, the blue dashed line and red solid line represent the mean sea level pressure, the minimum sea level pressure and the mean wind speed, respectively; b. the purple solid line, purple dashed line and blue solid line represent the mean air temperature, the minimum air temperature and the mean relative humidity, respectively; c. the light purple and dark purple bars represent the numbers of high wind processes with more than level 6 wind and more than level 7 wind, respectively; d. the light grey and dark grey bars represent the percentage of visibility between 1 km and 10 km and less than 1 km, respectively

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图 16 7个常规航次70°N以北考察海域风玫瑰图（a）和能见度（V）概率分布（b）

Fig. 16 The wind rose (a) and the percentage distribution of different visibility (V) (b) in the area north of 70°N during the seven conventional expedition

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表 1 7个常规航次70°N以北气象观测日期和人工观测次数

Tab. 1 Meteorological observation period and the number of manual observations in the area north of 70 °N during the 7 conventional expeditions

考察航次（年）	观测日期	人工观测次数
2（2003）	7月31日至9月10日	165
3（2008）	8月3日至9月8日	146
4（2010）	7月22日至8月30日	119
6（2014）	7月30日至9月8日	123
7（2016）	7月25日至9月2日	117
9（2018）	7月30日至9月6日	114
11（2020）	7月28日至9月11日	184

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