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基于完整目录数据的全球海啸时空分异研究

宁立新 惠春 程昌秀

宁立新,惠春,程昌秀. 基于完整目录数据的全球海啸时空分异研究[J]. 海洋学报,2022,44(7):1–15 doi: 10.12284/hyxb2022118
引用本文: 宁立新,惠春,程昌秀. 基于完整目录数据的全球海啸时空分异研究[J]. 海洋学报,2022,44(7):1–15 doi: 10.12284/hyxb2022118
Ning Lixin,Hui Chun,Cheng Changxiu. Research on temporal and spatial variations of global tsunami based on complete catalog data[J]. Haiyang Xuebao,2022, 44(7):1–15 doi: 10.12284/hyxb2022118
Citation: Ning Lixin,Hui Chun,Cheng Changxiu. Research on temporal and spatial variations of global tsunami based on complete catalog data[J]. Haiyang Xuebao,2022, 44(7):1–15 doi: 10.12284/hyxb2022118

基于完整目录数据的全球海啸时空分异研究

doi: 10.12284/hyxb2022118
基金项目: 国家自然科学基金(41771537)。
详细信息
    作者简介:

    宁立新(1991-),男,山东省济南市人,主要从事时空大数据研究。E-mail: ninglixin123@163.com

    通讯作者:

    程昌秀(1973-),教授,研究方向为自然灾害、时空数据分析。E-mail: chengcx@bnu.edu.cn

  • 中图分类号: P731.25

Research on temporal and spatial variations of global tsunami based on complete catalog data

  • 摘要: 海啸是自然灾害中对人类生命财产安全有严重威胁的灾难之一。随着全球气候变化和全球化贸易日益增强,越来越多的人口和经济暴露于海啸灾害。历史海啸灾害的时空分异分析可以帮助我们认识海啸灾害的演变规律,为灾害预警、灾害防控等提供有益参考。本文通过提取具有完整性和同质性的数据(爬高高度(RH))进行全球海啸的时空分异规律研究,结果发现:(1)对于0.1 m≤RH<0.5 m、0.5 m≤RH<1 m、1 m≤RH<5 m、5 m≤RH<10 m、10 m≤RH<20 m和20 m≤RH的间隔,海啸目录分别自1963年、1940年、1950年、1946年、1922年和1885年以来可以被认为是完整的;(2)全球海啸发生有一定的增加趋势,大约每年会多观测到7次海波浪爬高事件。在0.1≤RH<5区间内,海啸发生呈现一定的周期性。当RH大于5 m时,表现出明显的增加趋势;(3)西北太平洋区域、南太平洋区域、东南太平洋区域、印度洋区域海啸发生有一定的增加趋势。而在北美区域则呈减少趋势,东北大西洋区域无显著变化;(4)除北美区域外,其他区域的海啸发生遵循一定的自组织临界行为。相比来说,东北大西洋区域更容易发生小的海啸事件,而西北太平洋区域和印度洋区域更容易发生各种强度的海啸事件。
  • 图  1  公元前2000年到2017年确定性海啸波浪爬高事件分布

    Fig.  1  Distribution of tsunami wave runup events from 2000 BC to 2017

    图  2  公元前2000年到2017年海啸波浪爬高事件分区

    Fig.  2  Zoning of tsunami wave runup events from 2000 BC to 2017

    图  3  全球海啸目录的完整性分析结果

    a. Albarello方法计算结果,其中Tc代表完整结果,Tu和Tl为不确定性结果;b. Steep方法分析结果,纵轴中$\lambda=\dfrac{1}{n}\displaystyle\sum x_i$,其中x为采样时间段内的事件数目,T为采样时间段

    Fig.  3  The results of the complete analysis of the global tsunami catalog

    a. Albarello method calculation results, where Tc represents complete results, Tu and Tl are uncertain results; b. Steep method analysis results, in vertical axis, $\lambda=\dfrac{1}{n}\displaystyle\sum x_i$, x is the number of times in the sampling time period, T is the sampling time period

    图  4  全球海啸不同强度区间的发生频次曲线图

    Fig.  4  Frequency curve of different intensity intervals of global tsunamis

    图  5  西北太平洋区域(EA)不同强度区间的海啸发生频次曲线

    Fig.  5  Tsunamis frequency curve of different intensity intervals in EA region

    图  6  北美区域(NA)不同强度区间的海啸发生频次曲线

    Fig.  6  Tsunamis frequency curve of different intensity intervals in NA region

    图  7  南太平洋区域(SP)不同强度区间的海啸发生频次曲线

    Fig.  7  Tsunamis frequency curve of different intensity intervals in SP region

    图  8  东南太平洋区域(SA)不同强度区间的海啸发生频次曲线

    Fig.  8  Tsunamis frequency curve of different intensity intervals in SA region

    图  9  印度洋区域(IN)不同强度区间的海啸发生频次曲线

    Fig.  9  Tsunamis frequency curve of different intensity intervals in IN region

    图  10  东北大西洋区域(EU)不同强度区间的海啸发生频次曲线

    Fig.  10  Tsunamis frequency curve of different intensity intervals in EU region

    图  11  全球和各区域波浪爬高频次−强度关系

    Fig.  11  Global and regional tsunami frequency-intensity relationship

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  • 收稿日期:  2021-06-23
  • 修回日期:  2022-02-14

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