Spatial temporal patterns of chub mackerel fishing ground in the Northwest Pacific based on spatial autocorrelation model
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摘要: 日本鲭（Scomber japonicus）是西北太平洋渔业捕捞的主要种类，了解其渔场变动对探究日本鲭种群分布、资源评估、开发利用和管理等意义重大。为获知其渔场的时空变动特征，本研究根据中国2014−2019年西北太平洋公海灯光围网渔业统计资料，运用全局莫兰指数、局部热点分析、重心迁移轨迹模型和标准差椭圆模型对西北太平洋日本鲭渔场时空分布模式、特征和变动趋势进行了研究。结果显示：（1）日本鲭渔获量主要集中在39°～44°N，147°～155°E范围内，地理上分布不均；年间产量先增后降，年间CPUE逐年降低；月间产量先增后降，其中6−10月均维持在较高水平，CPUE逐月增加；捕捞网次核密度显示，核密度高值发生区域与产量高值具有高度一致性；（2）日本鲭年间、月间渔获量均存在空间自相关并呈现显著聚集分布模式，月间空间自相关性比年间强；（3）年间、月间日本鲭渔获量分布的热点区和冷点区均表现出一定空间集聚特征，但是不同年份、月份的热点区和冷点区的分布区域、面积均存在较大差异；（4）日本鲭渔场重心年间移动轨迹呈右转约90°的扁“W”形状，总体上往西北移动；月间变化显示，从4月份开始逐渐向东北移动，8月到达东北端后向西南折返；（5）日本鲭渔场年间、月间变动方向一致，呈西南−东北格局，且方向性、向心力均较强，日本鲭渔场具有较高的聚集性。该研究引进了空间自相关模型及相关地理空间分析方法，为探讨西北太平洋日本鲭渔场变动特征提供了一种新思路。Abstract: Chub mackerel (Scomber japonicus) is a major target species in the Northwest Pacific fishery. Understanding changes in its fishing grounds is of great significance for assessing population size, resource, utilization, and management of the fishery. Based on catch data of high sea light purse seine fishery of China from 2014 to 2019, the spatial and temporal patterns of chub mackerel fishing grounds in the Northwest Pacific using the global Moran index, the local hot spot analysis, center of gravity migration trajectory model, and standard deviation ellipse are analyzed in this study. The results show that: (1) catches of chub mackerel mainly concentrates in the area between 39°−44°N and 147°−155°E, the annual catches show a trend of first increase and then decrease, the annual CPUE decrease year by year, the monthly catches show a trend of first increase and then decrease, which maintaines at a high level from June to October, and the monthly CPUE increases with month. (2) The spatial autocorrelations of annually and monthly chub mackerel catches are significant, and the monthly autocorrelations are stronger than annually ones, indicated highly aggregated distribution of the fishing grounds. (3) The distributions of chub mackerel hot spots and cold spots show a certain spatial agglomeration, but their distribution patterns and the areas cover varied apparently with years and months. (4) The gravity center of fishing ground generally show northwest shift from year to year, and in term of seasonal changes, moves northwest from April to August, and then turnes back to the southwest. (5) The annual and monthly shifts in directions of fishing grounds are consistent, showing an southwest-northeast pattern with strong directivity and aggregation. The spatial correlation models used in this analysis present a new look at spatial and temporal patterns of the chub mackerel fishing grounds, which may provide useful information for the rational development and utilization of the chub mackerel resource.
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图 1 西北太平洋公海日本鲭作业海域
Fig. 1 Fishing area of chub mackerel in the high seas of the Northwest Pacific
图 3 西北太平洋公海日本鲭产量和CPUE
每月的产量为2014−2019年同一月份的叠加值，每月的CPUE利用叠加后的产量和捕捞努力量求得
Fig. 3 Catch and CPUE of chub mackerel in the high seas of the Northwest Pacific
The monthly yield was the superposition value of the same month from 2014 to 2019, and the monthly CPUE was obtained by using the superimposed yield and fishing effort
图 4 2014−2019年西北太平洋公海日本鲭产量分布
Fig. 4 Catch distribution of chub mackerel in the high seas of the Northwest Pacific from 2014 to 2019
图 5 2014−2019年西北太平洋公海日本鲭渔获网次核密度
Fig. 5 The kernel density of fishing haul numbers of chub mackerel in the high seas of the Northwest Pacific from 2014 to 2019
图 6 西北太平洋日本鲭产量年间热点分析
Fig. 6 Hotspots of annual catches of chub mackerel in the Northwest Pacific
图 7 西北太平洋日本鲭产量月间热点分析
Fig. 7 Hotspots of monthly catches of chub mackerel in the Northwest Pacific
图 8 西北太平洋日本鲭渔场重心年间（a）和月间（b）变化
Fig. 8 Interannual variation (a) and monthly variation (b) of fishing ground gravity centers of chub mackerel in the Northwest Pacific
图 9 西北太平洋日本鲭渔场年间（a）和月间（b）标准差椭圆
Fig. 9 Annual (a) and monthly (b) standard deviation ellipses of chub mackerel fishing ground in the Northwest Pacific
表 1 日本鲭产量年间常规统计和全局空间自相关参数
Tab. 1 Ordinary statistics and global spatial autocorrelation parameters of annual catches of chub mackerel
年份 均值 标准差 偏态值 峰态值 变异系数 标准差的平方与均值的比值 全局莫兰指数 Z p 2014年 22.921 16.791 4.104 55.769 0.733 12.3 0.214 2.272 0.023 2015年 21.825 18.645 8.972 24.846 0.854 15.929 0.052 5.678 0 2016年 16.84 13.254 3.425 23.866 0.787 10.432 0.091 2.108 0.035 2017年 12.967 11.841 2.743 18.883 0.913 10.813 0.101 2.871 0.004 2018年 12.494 12.275 4.665 64.583 0.983 12.061 0.082 3.386 0 2019年 8.772 7.751 1.372 3.99 0.884 6.849 0.422 10.525 0 
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表 2 日本鲭产量月间常规统计和全局空间自相关参数
Tab. 2 Ordinary statistics and global spatial autocorrelation parameters of monthly catches of chub mackerel
月份 均值 标准差 偏态值 峰态值 变异系数 标准差的平方与均值的比值 全局莫兰指数 Z p 4月 11.973 15.493 7.343 87.131 1.294 20.046 0.344 18.202 0 5月 11.161 12.67 5.29 76.633 1.135 14.383 0.81 22.015 0 6月 12.6 12.259 2.444 11.388 0.973 11.928 0.434 16.871 0 7月 12.324 11.068 4.498 68.963 0.898 9.94 0.111 6.165 0 8月 14.392 11.713 2.803 24.059 0.814 9.533 0.497 22.269 0 9月 15.575 13.044 2.039 7.831 0.838 10.924 0.679 26.76 0 10月 20.119 18.258 10.479 302.955 0.907 16.569 0.149 4.674 0 11月 19.731 15.389 2.982 26.529 0.78 12.002 0.254 2.911 0
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表 3 日本鲭年间、月间产量分布标准差椭圆形状参数
Tab. 3 Parameters of standard deviational ellipse of annual and monthly catch distributions of chub mackerel
时间 方位角/（°） 长轴/（°） 短轴/（°） 扁率 年份 2014年 54.15 4.5 1.18 3.81 2015年 67.62 2.31 0.75 3.10 2016年 60.96 2.81 0.92 3.04 2017年 63.27 4.35 0.93 4.68 2018年 57.36 2.81 0.65 4.31 2019年 52.84 2.92 0.5 5.88 月份 4月 47.01 1.91 0.89 2.13 5月 52.31 2.45 0.98 2.50 6月 67.64 2.19 0.79 2.78 7月 63.55 2.27 0.8 2.83 8月 63.94 2.39 0.78 3.06 9月 65.25 2.99 0.97 3.08 10月 65.17 2.93 0.82 3.59 11月 57.12 2.69 0.66 4.06 注：因为作图时使用经纬度作为度量单位，因此短轴、长轴只起提供距离比例和计算扁率作用。
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