气候变化情景下东南印度洋亚南极模态水的演变趋势研究

邱子珊; 徐腾飞; 魏泽勋; 聂珣炜

doi:10.12284/hyxb2021127

气候变化情景下东南印度洋亚南极模态水的演变趋势研究

doi: 10.12284/hyxb2021127

邱子珊^{1, 2, 3, 4,},
徐腾飞^{1, 2, 3, 4, ,},
魏泽勋^{1, 2, 3, 4},
聂珣炜^{1, 2, 3, 4}

1.
自然资源部第一海洋研究所, 山东青岛 266061
2.
自然资源部海洋环境科学与数值模拟重点实验室，山东青岛 266061
3.
山东省海洋环境科学与数值模拟重点实验室, 山东青岛 266061
4.
青岛海洋科学与技术试点国家实验室区域海洋动力学与数值模拟功能实验室，山东青岛 266237

基金项目: 中国大洋十三五资源与环境项目（DY135-E2-4）；国家自然科学基金（41806040）

详细信息

作者简介:
邱子珊（1996—），女，重庆市江津区人，主要从事大洋水团研究。E-mail：qiuzs@fio.org.cn

通讯作者:
徐腾飞（1986—），副研究员，主要从事大洋环流与水团研究。E-mail：xutengfei@fio.org.cn

中图分类号: P732.5；P724
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2020-12-04
- 修回日期: 2021-01-26
- 网络出版日期: 2021-08-12
- 刊出日期: 2021-12-31

Projectied longterm trend of the Southeast Indian subantarctic mode water under climate change scenarios

Qiu Zishan^{1, 2, 3, 4
,},
Xu Tengfei^{1, 2, 3, 4
, ,},
Wei Zexun^{1, 2, 3, 4},
Nie Xunwei^{1, 2, 3, 4}

1.
Frist Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources, Qingdao 266061, China
2.
Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling, Ministry of Natural Resources, Qingdao 266001, China
3.
Shandong Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling, Qingdao 266061, China
4.
Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling, Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (Qingdao), Qingdao 266237, China

摘要

摘要: 基于参与第六次耦合模式比较计划（CMIP6）的8个地球系统耦合模式所输出的历史模拟结果，本文通过与观测对比，评估了CMIP6模式对东南印度洋亚南极模态水的模拟能力，并预估了在中等强迫情景和高强迫情景下，该模态水潜沉率、体积及性质的变化趋势。结果表明：与Argo观测相比，CMIP6模式中南印度洋混合层偏深且上层海洋的位势密度偏小，因此其模拟的东南印度洋亚南极模态水潜沉率偏大而位势密度偏小。不同CMIP6模式之间模拟的东南印度洋亚南极模态水潜沉区存在差异，混合层侧向输入是导致这一差异的主要原因。此外，在历史模拟和两种情景试验中，东南印度洋亚南极模态水均呈现出潜沉率和体积减小、温度升高、盐度和密度降低的趋势。其中，在高强迫情景下，变化趋势最大，中等强迫情景次之，历史模拟中的变化趋势最小。这表明，辐射强迫越强，东南印度洋海表温度升高和淡水输入增加的趋势越大，导致混合层变浅及其南北梯度减小的趋势越快，东南印度洋亚南极模态水潜沉率、体积和性质变化的趋势也随之增大。
- CMIP6 /
- 东南印度洋 /
- 亚南极模态水 /
- 潜沉率 /
- 气候变化 /
- 情景试验
Abstract: Based on the outputs of eight earth system models involved in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), this study assessed the simulation skill of the Southeast Indian subantarctic mode water (SEISAMW) of these models by comparing with observations. Moreover, this study investigated the projected long-term trends in subduction rate, volume and properties of the SEISAMW under medium and high greenhouse gas emission scenarios (i.e., SSP245, SSP585). The results show that the CMIP6 models generally have produced artificially greater mixed layer depth and smaller upper layer potential density in comparison with those of the Argo observation. Consequently, the simulated SEISAMW in the CMIP6 models are generally with larger subduction rate and smaller potential density. Meanwhile, the subduction regions of the SEISAMWs show significant differences among the analyzed CMIP6 models, which are attribute to lateral induction in the mixed layer. Furthermore, in the historical, SSP245 and SSP585 outputs, the SEISAMWs show consistent decreasing trends in subduction rate and volume, increasing trend in temperature, and decreasing trends in salinity and potential density. The long-term trends of the SEISAMWs are largest under SSP585 scenario, followed by the SSP245 scenario and historical simulation. The projected trends of SEISAMW can be explained by the following mechanism: the temperature and freshwater flux in the southeastern Indian Ocean upper layer tend to increase under enhanced radioactive forcing, resulting in shoaling in mixed layer and flattening of the mixed layer gradient. As a result, the trends of SEISAMWs in subduction rate, volume and water properties show larger values in accordance with stronger radioactive forcing.
- CMIP6 /
- Southeast Indian Ocean /
- subantarctic mode water /
- subduction rate /
- climate change /
- scenario experiments

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图 1 东南印度洋亚南极模态水形成示意图

a. 混合层加深及东南印度洋亚南极模态水潜沉（9月）；b. 混合层变浅及东南印度洋亚南极模态水完全潜沉（12月）；水平表面为混合层深度（填色）和26.6 kg/m³与26.9 kg/m³的等位势密度线（实线）；垂向断面为位势涡度极小值区域（填色）和位势密度等值线（实线）；基于2005–2018年Argo数据的气候态结果绘制

Fig. 1 Schematic diagram of Southeast Indian subantarctic mode water (SEISAMW) formation

a. The deep mixed layer and SEISAMW subduction in September; b. the shallow mixed layer and subducted SEISAMW in December; horizontal surface presents the mixed layer depth (shaded) and isopycnals of 26.6 kg/m³ and 26.9 kg/m³ (solid lines); vertical section indicates the potential vorticity minima region (shaded) and isopycnals (solid lines); drawn by the climatological results based on Argo observations over the period of 2005 to 2018

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图 2 CMIP6历史模拟结果和Argo观测东南印度洋（30°～52°S，60°～120°E）混合层深度的季节变化

Fig. 2 Seasonal variability of mixed layer depth in the Southeast Indian Ocean (30°–52°S，60°–120°E) derived from Argo and CMIP6 historical simulations

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图 3 Argo和CMIP6历史模拟时期南印度洋9月混合层深度分布

Argo（a）和CMIP6（b）模式平均9月混合层深度；c. CMIP6与Argo 9月混合层深度之差；d. CMIP6模式间9月混合层深度标准差

Fig. 3 Monthly mean mixed layer depth in the Southern Indian Ocean in September derived from Argo and CMIP6 historical simulations

Mixed layer depth in September derived from Argo (a) and CMIP6 (b) multi-model mean; c. the difference of mixed layer depth in September between CMIP6 multi-model mean and Argo; d. the standard deviation of mixed layer depth in September among CMIP6 models

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图 4 Argo和CMIP6历史模拟时期南印度洋的长期平均潜沉率分布

红框内位于等位势密度线之间的区域为东南印度洋亚南极模态水的生成海域

Fig. 4 The long-term average annual subduction rate in the Southern Indian Ocean derived from Argo and CMIP6 historical simulations

The region between isopycnals in the red solid boxes represent the formation region of Southeast Indian subantarctic mode water

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图 5 CMIP6模式和Argo地转流计算的南印度洋潜沉率之差

a. CMIP6模式平均与Argo潜沉率之差；b–i. 各CMIP6模式与Argo的潜沉率之差；红框内位于等位势密度线之间的区域为东南印度洋亚南极模态水的生成海域

Fig. 5 The difference of subduction rate calculated by geostrophic current in the Southern Indian Ocean derived from Argo and CMIP6 models

a. The difference of subduction rate between CMIP6 multi-model mean and Argo; b–i. the difference of subduction rate between CMIP6 models and Argo; the region between isopycnals in the red boxes represent the formation region of Southeast Indian subantarctic mode water

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图 6 CMIP6模式中南印度洋潜沉率趋势分布

左列为历史模拟结果（1850–2014年）；中列（SSP245）和右列（SSP585）为情景试验结果（2015–2100年）；填色区域通过95%显著性检验

Fig. 6 The distribution of annual subduction rate trend in the Southern Indian Ocean derived from CMIP6 models

The left column are the results in the historical simulations from 1850 to 2014; the middle and right columns are the results of SSP245 and SSP585 from 2015 to 2100 respectively; the shaded region indicate significant trends at 95% confidence interval

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图 7 CMIP6模式中南印度洋9月混合层深度趋势分布

左列为历史模拟结果（1850–2014年）；中列（SSP245）和右列（SSP585）为情景试验结果（2015–2100年）；填色区域通过95%显著性检验

Fig. 7 The distribution of mixed layer depth trend in the Southern Indian Ocean in September derived from CMIP6 models

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图 8 CMIP6模式平均南印度洋9月混合层深度南北梯度趋势分布

a. 历史模拟结果（1850–2014年）；b、c. SSP245和SSP585情景试验结果（2015–2100年）；填色区域通过95%显著性检验

Fig. 8 CMIP6 multi-model mean trend of meridional gradient of mixed layer depth in the Southern Indian Ocean in September derived from CMIP6

a. The results in the historical simulations from 1850 to 2014; b，c. the results under two scenarios of SSP245 and SSP585 from 2015 to 2100; the shaded region indicate significant trends at 95% confidence interval

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图 9 CMIP6模式中东南印度洋亚南极模态水潜沉率和其生成区混合层深度的长期变化

左下角Δy为纵坐标相对于第一列模式的平移量，如b中潜沉率变化的左下角Δy=−15表示比图中显示的纵坐标数值小15×10⁶ m³/s

Fig. 9 Longterm variation of annual subduction rate of SEISAMW and mixed layer depth in SEISAMW formation region derived from CMIP6 models

The Δy that mark in the lower left corner of each subpanels represent this Y-axis should shift by the value of Δy refer to the Y-axis in the leftmost subpanels, i. e., in the lower corner of b showing the variation of subduction rate, Δy=−15 indicates the subduction rate is 15×10⁶ m³/s smaller than the value shown in Y-axis

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图 10 CMIP6模式中东南印度洋亚南极模态水（PV小于某一阈值）的温盐（T-S）图

左列为历史模拟结果（1850−2014年），PV阈值标于图中右下角（单位：10⁻¹¹ m⁻¹/s）；中列（SSP245）和右列（SSP585）为情景试验结果（2015−2100年）；图中填色代表具有不同温盐密特征的东南印度洋亚南极模态水的体积

Fig. 10 Temperature and salinity (T-S) diagram of the Southeast Indian subantarctic mode water (identified as water column with potential vorticity smaller than a threshold value) derived from CMIP6 models

The left column are the results in the historical simulations from 1850 to 2014, the threshold values (unit: 10⁻¹¹ m⁻¹/s) are marked in the lower right corner of the subpanel; the middle and right columns are the results under of SSP245 and SSP585 from 2015 to 2100 respectively; the color bar indicates the related volume of the Southeast Indian subantarctic mode water

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图 11 CMIP6模式中东南印度洋亚南极模态水潜沉率及其性质的长期变化

左下角Δy为纵坐标相对于第一列模式的平移量，如b中潜沉率变化的左下角Δy=−15表示比纵坐标数值小15×10⁶ m³/s

Fig. 11 Longterm variation of annual subduction rate and properties of Southeast Indian subantarctic mode water derived from CMIP6 models

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图 12 CMIP6模式东南印度洋亚南极模态水的潜沉率及其性质的变化趋势

绿色、橙色和紫色分别对应东南印度洋亚南极模态水在历史模拟、SSP245和SSP585情景试验中的变化趋势（每100 a）；a. 深色和浅色部分分别对应侧向输入和潜沉率的变化趋势

Fig. 12 Trend of subduction rate and properties of Southeast Indian subantarctic mode water simulated by CMIP6 models

Green, orange and purple bars indicate the variation of Southeast Indian subantarctic mode water properties in historical simulations, under SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, respectively (every 100 a）; a. the darker and lighter bars indicate lateral induction and subduction rate, respectively

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图 13 CMIP6模式平均东南印度洋亚南极模态水的潜沉率及其性质的长期变化

橘红线、绿线和蓝线分别为东南印度洋亚南极模态水在历史模拟、SSP245和SSP585情景试验中的变化；右侧k值代表变化趋势（每100 a），不同颜色代表不同试验，与实线相对应；浅色阴影部分为CMIP6模式平均值±0.5倍标准差

Fig. 13 Longterm variation of the CMIP6 multi-model mean subduction rate and properties of Southeast Indian subantarctic mode water simulated by CMIP6 models

Orange, green and blue lines indicate the variation of Southeast Indian subantarctic mode water properties in the historical simulations, under SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, respectively (every 100 a); the values of k that marked on the right of each subpanels represent the linear trends with the color corresponding to each experiment; light color shade indicate the 0.5 times of standard deviation of the CMIP6 models

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表 1 CMIP6模式信息

Tab. 1 Information of CMIP6 models

模式名称	垂向层数	水平分辨率（50°S）	位势涡度/（10⁻¹¹ m⁻¹ ·s⁻¹）
NESM3	46	1°×0.65°	3.5
CESM2-WACCM	60	1.125°×0.53°	8
IPSL-CM6A-LR	75	1°×0.65°	8
CAMS-CSM1-0	50	1°×1°	4.5
FIO-ESM-2-0	60	1.125°×0.53°	8
MRI-ESM2-0	61	1°×0.5°	4.5
CIESM	60	1.125°×0.53°	6
CanESM5	45	1°×0.65°	3

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表 2 Argo观测和CMIP6模式中东南印度洋亚南极模态水性质

Tab. 2 Water properties of the Southeast Indian subantarctic mode water in Argo observations and CMIP6 models

模式名称	最大混合层深度/m	潜沉率/ （10⁶ m³·s⁻¹）	潜沉率（地转）/ （10⁶ m³·s⁻¹）	侧向输入/ （10⁶ m³·s⁻¹）	侧向输入（地转）/ （10⁶ m³·s⁻¹）	垂向抽吸/ （10⁶ m³·s⁻¹）	位势密度/ （kg·m⁻³）	温度/℃	盐度
Argo	388	−	9.89	−	6.69	3.20	26.6～26.9	8.7～12.7	34.6～35.2
NESM3	567	28.43	16.04	20.46	8.07	7.97	26.9～27.2	10.5～12.5	35.2～35.7
CESM2-WACCM	341	17.61	12.35	10.04	4.78	7.57	26.2～26.8	5.0～12.0	33.8～34.7
IPSL-CM6A-LR	466	27.21	18.70	19.88	11.37	7.33	26.3～26.6	9.8～13.5	34.4～35.1
CAMS-CSM1-0	655	49.84	27.21	38.14	15.51	11.70	26.2～26.9	9.0～14.5	34.5～35.3
FIO-ESM-2-0	310	15.15	11.80	8.57	5.22	6.58	26.2～26.9	5.0～11.8	33.9～34.6
MRI-ESM2-0	603	42.69	26.35	30.72	14.35	11.97	26.6～26.9	9.2～13.3	34.7～35.3
CIESM	407	21.37	14.61	13.81	7.05	7.56	26.4～26.9	5.5～14.0	34.1～35.3
CanESM5	528	35.95	23.26	24.54	11.85	11.41	26.3～26.6	8.9～12.0	34.2～34.7
注：−代表Argo没有基于流速计算的潜沉率，只有基于地转流计算的潜沉率。

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