Evaluation and projection of SST in the China seas from CMIP5

Song Chunyang; Zhang Shouwen; Jiang Hua; Wang Hui; Wang Dakui; Huang Yongyong

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Song Chunyang, Zhang Shouwen, Jiang Hua, Wang Hui, Wang Dakui, Huang Yongyong. Evaluation and projection of SST in the China seas from CMIP5[J]. Haiyang Xuebao, 2016, 38(10): 1-11.

Citation:

Song Chunyang, Zhang Shouwen, Jiang Hua, Wang Hui, Wang Dakui, Huang Yongyong. Evaluation and projection of SST in the China seas from CMIP5[J]. Haiyang Xuebao, 2016, 38(10): 1-11.

Song Chunyang, Zhang Shouwen, Jiang Hua, Wang Hui, Wang Dakui, Huang Yongyong. Evaluation and projection of SST in the China seas from CMIP5[J]. Haiyang Xuebao, 2016, 38(10): 1-11.

Citation:

Song Chunyang, Zhang Shouwen, Jiang Hua, Wang Hui, Wang Dakui, Huang Yongyong. Evaluation and projection of SST in the China seas from CMIP5[J]. Haiyang Xuebao, 2016, 38(10): 1-11.

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Evaluation and projection of SST in the China seas from CMIP5

1.
National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, Beijing 100081, China
2.
National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, Beijing 100081, China;Key Laboratory of Research on Marine Hazards Forecasting, State Oceanic Administration, Beijing 100081, China

Received Date: 2016-03-04

Abstract

Abstract

Based on observation and reanalysis data, the ability of 21 CMIP5 models to simulate monthly,seasonal and interannual SSTs in the China seas are evaluated. The results show that the CMIP5 models can simulate the spatial distribution of SST in the China seas well but underestimate its magnitude. The SST difference between the multi-model ensemble and observations is significant in the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea. As to the interannual timescale, the simulation results and Niño3 index is worse correlated than observation and Niño3 index. The SST in the China seas increases in 1960-2002, but changes to be stable in 2003. Among the 21 CMIP5 models, ACCESS1.0、BCC-CSM1.1,HadGEM2-ES,IPSL-CM5A-MR,CMCC-CM,FGOALS-g2,CNRM-CM5-2 and INMCM4 can simulate the SSTS in the China seas better. The trend of SST in the China seas is simulated based on ACCESS1.0,INMCM4,BCC-CSM1.1,IPSL-CM5A-MR,CMCC-CM. Under RCP4.5, RCP8.5 run, the warming trends of SST will continue in the following 100 years with a spatial average of 1.5℃ and 3.3℃ over the whole China seas. The major cause of SST warming in the East China Sea is sea surface net heat flux and the temperature advection.
- SST in the China seas,
- CMIP5,
- model evaluation,
- projection

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References(29)

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