Assessments on simulation of thermodynamic parameters of tropical cyclone in IPCC-AR4 Models

YU Jin-hua; TANG Sheng; WU Li-guang; SHI Neng

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YU Jin-hua, TANG Sheng, WU Li-guang, SHI Neng. Assessments on simulation of thermodynamic parameters of tropical cyclone in IPCC-AR4 Models[J]. Haiyang Xuebao, 2011, 33(6): 39-54.

Citation:

YU Jin-hua, TANG Sheng, WU Li-guang, SHI Neng. Assessments on simulation of thermodynamic parameters of tropical cyclone in IPCC-AR4 Models[J]. Haiyang Xuebao, 2011, 33(6): 39-54.

YU Jin-hua, TANG Sheng, WU Li-guang, SHI Neng. Assessments on simulation of thermodynamic parameters of tropical cyclone in IPCC-AR4 Models[J]. Haiyang Xuebao, 2011, 33(6): 39-54.

Citation:

YU Jin-hua, TANG Sheng, WU Li-guang, SHI Neng. Assessments on simulation of thermodynamic parameters of tropical cyclone in IPCC-AR4 Models[J]. Haiyang Xuebao, 2011, 33(6): 39-54.

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Assessments on simulation of thermodynamic parameters of tropical cyclone in IPCC-AR4 Models

Key Loboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, Atmospheric Sciences, NUIST, Nanjing 210044,China

Received Date: 2009-08-21
Rev Recd Date: 2010-06-07

Abstract

Abstract

Sea surface temperature (SST) is an important environmental thermodynamic factor affecting tropical cyclone (TC)activity, the fidelity of SST over tropical regions(30°S-30°N)in the coupled general circulation models (CGCM) participating in the Forth Assessment Report(AR4) of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)is accessed by virtue of comparing simulated climate field, spatial patterns in linear trends, multidecadal and interannual changes of SST during 1948-1999. It is found that although 24 IPCC-AR4 models show a good performance in mean state, most of SST in models shows a cold bias in comparison with ERSST. Regional mean annual SST gives a warming trend in all models, but there is much discrepancy between the amplitude of trends in models and ERSST. According to the performance of simulation in spatial structure of linear trends and multidecadal changes, six (INM CM3_0, MRI_CGCM2,3.2a, INGV_ECHAM4, UKMO_HADCM3,NCAR_PCM1, MPI_ECHAM5) of 24 IPCC AR4 models should not be ensemble to study a global warming scenario of tropical cyclone activity because of much difference of spatial patterns between these models and ERSST.The first five models, their spatial patterns of linear trends and multidecadal variations represent well with that of ERSST, are CGCM3.1_T47, GISS ER, MIROC_HIRES, GFDL CM2.1, GFDL CM2.0, successively. It also showed that both linear trend and multidecadal change of SST from June to October, a major TC active season, are simulated better over North Atlantic basin than over north western Pacific and South China Sea after evaluating the performance of SST over above three TC active regions. 18 of 24 models have significant relationship in multidecadal series between simulated SST and ERSST over North Atlantic. The performance of UKMO_HADGEM1 and MPI_ECHAM5 in interannual change of SST over north western Pacific is good enough to use them but it is UKMO_HADCM3 in South China Sea.
- IPCC AR4 models,
- tropical cyclone,
- thermodynamic control factors,
- simulation assessment

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References(44)

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