A study on the numerical prediction method of vertical thermal structure for the intermediate cold water in the northwest of East China Sea Ⅰ. One-dimensional numerical prediction model

Based on the characteristic of the self-simulation of the vertical temperature profile and the property that the integral of similarity function is equal to constant at each layer,the sea was divided into 4 layers.The heat conduction equations of similarity function were deduced with considering heating from sea surface and nonheat transform at bottom.The equation set consists of 7 characteristic values of the vertical structure for the intermediate cold water.After these values were calculated,they were substituted to the temperature formulas of the selfsimulating function.The temperature profile can be predicted.In order to examine this model efficacy the hindcastings were done.The effectiveness for a given period of time is 5 d.The results shows that the root-mean square error between the predicted and measured of the characteristic temperature was lower than or equal to 0.23℃,the characteristic depth was lower than or equal to 1.18 m and the profile temperature was lower than or equal to 0.20℃.It is shown that the results of trial prediction are satisfactory.