A baroclinic typhoon model with a moving multi-nested grid and variational adjustment initialization Ⅱ. Forecast experiments

Wu Huiding; Yang Xuelian; Bai Shan

Article Contents

Article Navigation > Haiyang Xuebao > 1998 > 20(5): 30-43

Wu Huiding, Yang Xuelian, Bai Shan. A baroclinic typhoon model with a moving multi-nested grid and variational adjustment initialization Ⅱ. Forecast experiments[J]. Haiyang Xuebao, 1998, 20(5): 30-43.

Citation:

Wu Huiding, Yang Xuelian, Bai Shan. A baroclinic typhoon model with a moving multi-nested grid and variational adjustment initialization Ⅱ. Forecast experiments[J]. Haiyang Xuebao, 1998, 20(5): 30-43.

Citation:

PDF( 938 KB)

A baroclinic typhoon model with a moving multi-nested grid and variational adjustment initialization Ⅱ. Forecast experiments

National Marine Environmental Forecasting Centre, State Oceanic Administration, Beijing 100081

Received Date: 1997-01-05
Rev Recd Date: 1997-06-06

Abstract

Abstract

A baroclinic typhoon mbdel with a moving triple-nested grid has been applied for marine environmental forecasts in the National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center of China. The governing equations of the model and the numerical methods have been described in the first part of this paper. An outline of the model grid,variational adjustment initialization and forecast experiments will be continued in the paper. The outmost region with coarse grids is fixed and the inner fine resolution regions follow the track of typhoon center. In the model,variables at the coarse and fine grids interact through two-way coupling. The equilibrium equation and the cu-equation, an idealized typhoon field and variational adjustment scheme are used for initialization of the typhoon model. Prediction results are improved by using a simple but effective data assimilation method in which the initial fields are adjusted by using a simple but effective data assimilation method in which the initial fields are adjusted by using the sixth hour's typhoon report and the week-constraint variational principle. Finally the results of the forecasts are shown in the paper. The statistics of the forecast errors show that the model has certain capability to predict typhoon tracks and gives good results for surface wind and pressure forecasts. And the typhoon model has been linked with a sea-wave model and satisfactory forecast for wave height has been gotten.
- Beroclinic typhoon model,
- data assimilation,
- variational adjustment,
- numerical typhoon forecast mufti-nested grid

FullText(HTML)

References(25)

References

85-906-03课胭组.台风、基用业务数值预报方法和技术研究,北京:气象出版社,1996. 14-84, 319-356

陈联寿,蓝克肠,吴辉旋等.热带气旋科学讨论会文集(1990),北京;气象出版社,1992, 1-40. 70-157

WMO/TD. Numerical Weather Prediction Progress Report for 1993, NWPP Report Series No. 20. WMO/TD-No. 619,1994, 34-45

郑庆林,吴军,宋青丽.一个有三重水平结构的台风数值模式及其应用.应用气象学报,1996. 7(2), 203-211

吴辉碗,杨学联,白珊.三维斜压台风模式I.数值方法.海洋学报,1998. 20(4). 38-46

Miyakoda K. Test of convergence speed of iterative methods for solving 2-and 3-dimensional elliptic-type differential equations. J. Met. Soc. of Japan, 1960, Ser. I,38. 107-124

Asscelin R. The operational solution of the ballance equation. Tellus, 1967. 19. 24-32

Paegle J, Paegle J N. An efficient and accurate approximation of the balance wind with application to non-elliptic data.Mon. Wea. Rev.,1974, 102, 838-846

Haltiner G J, Clake L C, Lawniczak Jr C:E. Computation of large scale vertical velocity. J. Appl. Met.,1963, 2, 242-259

Stuart D W, O'Neill T H R. The overrelaxation factor in the numerical solution of the omega equation. Mon. Wea. Rev.,1967, 95, 303-307

Krishnamurti T N. A diagnostic balance model for studies, Rossby number less than 1. Mon. Wea. Rev.,1968, 96, 197-207

Houghton D D er al. On global initialization of the primitive equations, Part I, The divergent component of the horizontal wind. J. Appl. Met.,1971,10, 626-639

Kurihara Y, Reorder M A, Ross R J. An initialization scheme of hurricane models by vortex specification. Mon. Wea. Rew.,1993. 121, 2 030-2 045

Panel on Model-Assimilated Data Sets for Atmospheric and Oceanic Research. Four-Dimensional Model Assimilation of Data; A Strategy for the Earth System Sciences, National Academy Press, Washington D. C.,1991,78pp

Ghil M et al. Data assimilation in meteorology and oceanography. Advances in Geophysics, 1991,33, 141-266

Sasaki Y K. Variational methods in geosciences. 1n:Proceedings of the International Symposium on Variational Methods in Geosciences, Oklahoma, 1985, Elsevier, 1986, 185pp

朱宗中,马清云,陶士伟等.国家气象中心区域资料同化系统.台风、基雨业务数值预报方法和技术研究(85-906-03课题组编),北京:气象出版社,1996, 545-554

Shewchuk J D, Elsberry R L. Improvement of a baroclinic typhoon motion prediction by adjustment of the initial field.Mon. Wea. Rev.,1978, 106. 713-718

大河内芳雄.台风3次ぇもデルにょる进路予报.天气,1983, 30, 277-289

昊辉锭,朱宗申,屠伟铭.台风场的变分调整.海洋学报,1985, 7,689-695

Lewis J M, Grayson T H. The adjustment of surface wind and pressure by Sasaki's variational matching technique. J.Appl. Meteor. 1972, 11, 586-597

Sheets R C. Analysis of stormfury data using the variational optimization approach. NOAA Technical Report, ERL264,1973, 88pp

Yang Chuncheng et al. A method to predict typhoon waves. Acta Oceanologica Sinica, 1995, 14(2):167-180

杨克明.暴雨颇繁降水偏多,登陆台风多影响大.气象,1996, 22(10):59-61

陈德辉.热带气旋数值预报新进展.气象科技,1995, 3, 7-12

Relative Articles

Supplements(0)

Cited By

Proportional views