Analysis of rapid changes of tropical cyclones over the South China Sea for 1949–2017

Liao Fei; Li Wenting; Zhang Ziran; Su Ran; Qi Yanbin

doi:10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2019.09.012

Volume 41 Issue 9

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Liao Fei，Li Wenting，Zhang Ziran, et al. Analysis of rapid changes of tropical cyclones over the South China Sea for 1949–2017[J]. Haiyang Xuebao，2019, 41(9)：126–135，doi:10.3969/j.issn.0253−4193.2019.09.012

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Analysis of rapid changes of tropical cyclones over the South China Sea for 1949–2017

doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2019.09.012

1.
Guangzhou Meteorological Observatory, Guangzhou 511430, China
2.
School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
3.
Qingyuan Meteorological Service, Qingyuan 511515, China
4.
Joint Open Laboratory for Weather Modification of China Meteorological Administration/People’s Government of Jilin Province, Changchun 130062, China
5.
Jilin Weather Modification Office, Changchun 130062, China

Received Date: 2018-07-30
Rev Recd Date: 2018-10-31

Available Online: 2021-04-21

Publish Date: 2019-09-25

Abstract

Abstract

The statistical characteristics of rapid changes of different grade tropical cyclone intensity and path in the South China Sea are analyzed by the best track data set of tropical cyclones for 69 years from 1949 to 2017 compiled by Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administrator. The results show that: (1) The change from a severe tropical storm to a typhoon, and from a typhoon to a severe typhoon, are the most frequent events of rapid intensity changes. Most tropical cyclones experience intensity change no more than twice. However, most of the rapid intensifying tropical cyclones occur mainly outside the South China Sea in the western Pacific, and the probability of rapid intensifying over the South China Sea is only 9.8%. (2) The duration of intensity maintenance has an important effect on rapid intensity changes for different grade tropical cyclones. It is the highest rapid change stage during the first 24 hours. Rapid intensity change to typhoon or above grade is easily to occur when the decreasing velocity of central pressure exceeds –12.0 hPa/(6 h). Moreover, the rapid intensifying of tropical cyclones is easily to occur in areas with high sea surface temperature. (3) The deflection of the tropical cyclone path in the South China Sea is mainly in the westbound path, in which the deflection of 5°–30° is the most common, accounting for 48.65% of the total number of tropical cyclones. However, According to the defined path mutation criterion, the probability of path sharp turning is only 15.13%. With the increase of tropical cyclone intensity, the frequency of path sharp turning in the South China Sea decreases rapidly, and the path sharp turning occurs mainly in the coastal area and the east-central region of the South China Sea. This work further refines and enriches the understanding of the intensity and path rapid changes of tropical cyclones in the South China Sea.
- tropical cyclones,
- intensity,
- path,
- rapid change,
- the South China Sea

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References(27)

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