Prediction of abundance index of Argentine shortfin squid in the Southwest Atlantic Ocean based on grey system model

Wang Yanfeng; Chen Xinjun; Chen Peng; Yu Jing

doi:10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2019.04.006

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Wang Yanfeng, Chen Xinjun, Chen Peng, Yu Jing. Prediction of abundance index of Argentine shortfin squid in the Southwest Atlantic Ocean based on grey system model[J]. Haiyang Xuebao, 2019, 41(4): 64-73. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2019.04.006

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Wang Yanfeng, Chen Xinjun, Chen Peng, Yu Jing. Prediction of abundance index of Argentine shortfin squid in the Southwest Atlantic Ocean based on grey system model[J]. Haiyang Xuebao, 2019, 41(4): 64-73. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2019.04.006

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Prediction of abundance index of Argentine shortfin squid in the Southwest Atlantic Ocean based on grey system model

doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2019.04.006

1.
College of Marine Sciences, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China;South China Sea Fisheries Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Fishery Sciences, Guangzhou 510300, China
2.
College of Marine Sciences, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China;Key Laboratory of Oceanic Fisheries Exploration, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Shanghai 201306, China;National Engineering Research Center for Oceanic Fisheries, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China;Key Laboratory of Sustainable Exploitation of Oceanic Fisheries Resources, Ministry of Education, Shanghai 201306, China;Scientific Observing and Experimental Station of Oceanic Fishery Resources, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Shanghai 201306
3.
College of Marine Sciences, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China
4.
South China Sea Fisheries Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Fishery Sciences, Guangzhou 510300, China

Received Date: 2018-03-22
Rev Recd Date: 2018-11-06

Abstract

Abstract

Illex argentinus is the main fishing target in the southwest Atlantic. The accurate prediction of resource abundance can guide enterprises to arrange fishery production rationally. In this study, based on the fishing data of Illex argentinus in southwest Atlantic from 2001-2016, we computed the grey absolute correlation degree between the logarithmic CPUE sequence in the following year and SST sequence in the spawning ground from June to August . And we selected the points which the grey absolute correlation index was greater than 0.90 as the forecasting factors, and then a CPUE forecast of Illex argentinus in southwest Atlantic was established, and used the actual CPUE in 2016 to verify the model. The grey correlation analysis shows that there are a large number of points have strong grey correlation index between SST and CPUE sequence from June to August in the region 30°~40°S,45°~60°W. Results suggest that GM (0, 4) model, which includes average SST from June to August, has the best model effect. The relative error is 7%,which can be used in the prediction of resources abundance of Illex argentinus in the southwest Atlantic. In contrast, the GM (0, 3) does not include the spawning area's mean SST in June and in July, which relative errors are 128% and 289% respectively. This suggests June and July are the main spawning months for Illex argentinus in Southwest Atlantic Ocean.
- Illex argentinus,
- Southwest Atlantic Ocean,
- grey absolute correlation index,
- GM (0, N) model,
- spawning grounds

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References(26)

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