Development and validation of a tsunami amplitude forecast system covering the whole Pacific Ocean

Wang Zongchen; Yuan Ye; Wang Peitao; Gao Yi; Li Hongwei; Hou Jingming

doi:10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2019.02.001

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Wang Zongchen, Yuan Ye, Wang Peitao, Gao Yi, Li Hongwei, Hou Jingming. Development and validation of a tsunami amplitude forecast system covering the whole Pacific Ocean[J]. Haiyang Xuebao, 2019, 41(2): 1-13. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2019.02.001

Citation:

Wang Zongchen, Yuan Ye, Wang Peitao, Gao Yi, Li Hongwei, Hou Jingming. Development and validation of a tsunami amplitude forecast system covering the whole Pacific Ocean[J]. Haiyang Xuebao, 2019, 41(2): 1-13. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2019.02.001

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Development and validation of a tsunami amplitude forecast system covering the whole Pacific Ocean

doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2019.02.001

1.
National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, Beijing 100081, China;National Tsunami Warning Center, Ministry of Natural Resources, Beijing 100081, China
2.
National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, Beijing 100081, China;National Tsunami Warning Center, Ministry of Natural Resources, Beijing 100081, China;Key Laboratory of Research on Marine Hazards Forecasting, Ministry of Natural Resources, Beijing 100081, China

Received Date: 2018-08-18
Rev Recd Date: 2018-10-23

Abstract

Abstract

Based on linear shallow water equation and tsunami amplitude Green's law, a rapid earthquake induced tsunami amplitude forecast system covering the Pacific Ocean is developed. Thirty-two hour tsunami propagation simulation and amplitude forecast for Chinese coast can be completed within 90 s by using GPU parallel method. The system is validated by 9 major historical tsunamis induced by submarine earthquakes with Mw more than 8.0 in the Pacific region since 2006 with abundant observations. The results indicate that the linear shallow water model is capable of simulating the tsunami propagation in the ocean. And the Green's law basically can be used for amplitude estimation in the coastal region under the condition of slow-varying topography and open coastline with no complex geometry. Forecasting accuracy of threat levels is acceptable in terms of tsunami warning purpose, with 80% of results falling into the corresponding levels. The evaluation also confirms that the forecasting system can meet the requirement of tsunami warning in Chinese coastal areas. Note that near-field amplitude may have large deviations because of its sensitivity to tsunami source. In order to further improve the accuracy of quantitative warning of tsunami amplitude, we need to strengthen the research and operational practice from the following aspects:one is to improve the precision of the tsunami source by using method of multiple-data joint inversion; the second is to validate the feasibility of Green's law, or to construct refined and high-efficiency tsunami forecast model in coastal regions.
- quantitative tsunami warning,
- tsunami amplitude forecast,
- Green's law,
- validation

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References(51)

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