Forecasting model of the abundance index of winter-spring cohort of neon flying squid (<em>Ommastrephes bartramii</em>) in the Northwest Pacific Ocean based on grey system theory

Gao Xue; Chen Xinjun; Yu Wei

doi:10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2017.06.006

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Gao Xue, Chen Xinjun, Yu Wei. Forecasting model of the abundance index of winter-spring cohort of neon flying squid (Ommastrephes bartramii) in the Northwest Pacific Ocean based on grey system theory[J]. Haiyang Xuebao, 2017, 39(6): 55-61. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2017.06.006

Citation:

Gao Xue, Chen Xinjun, Yu Wei. Forecasting model of the abundance index of winter-spring cohort of neon flying squid (Ommastrephes bartramii) in the Northwest Pacific Ocean based on grey system theory[J]. Haiyang Xuebao, 2017, 39(6): 55-61. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2017.06.006

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Forecasting model of the abundance index of winter-spring cohort of neon flying squid (Ommastrephes bartramii) in the Northwest Pacific Ocean based on grey system theory

doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2017.06.006

1.
College of Marine Science, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China
2.
College of Marine Science, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China;National Engineering Research Center for Oceanic Fisheries, Shanghai 201306;The Key Laboratory of Sustainable Exploitation of Oceanic Fisheries Resources, Ministry of Education, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China

Received Date: 2016-08-10
Rev Recd Date: 2016-12-26

Abstract

Abstract

Neon flying squid (Ommastrephes bartramii) is one of the most important economic cephalopods in the Northwest Pacific Ocean. Building scientific forecast model of abundance index to this squid is beneficial for its exploitation and utilization. In this study, based on the fishing data of this squid in Northwest Pacific Ocena from 1998 to 2008, we analyzed the relationship between the environmental and climatic factors and the catch per unit effort (CPUE) of the winter-spring cohort in its spawning grounds. Therefore, a CPUE forecast model of winter-spring cohort of neon flying squid was built. The grey correlation analysis showed that the most important factors affecting this squid CPUE included average sea surface temperature (SST) in March, Pacific Decadal Oscillatio index (PDO) in January, Niño3.4 index in April and average chlorophyll a concentration (Chl a) in April. Results suggested that the GM (1,4) model which did not include the Niño3.4 anomaly had the best model effects. And its average absolute error was 19.2%. Therefore, we suggested that this model can be used to forecast the CPUE of winter-spring cohort of neon flying squid.
- neon flying squid (Ommastrephes bartramii),
- Northwest Pacific Ocean,
- grey absolute correlation index,
- GM(1,N) model

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References(25)

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