Study on forecasting model of recruitment for <em>Illex argentinus</em> by using the environmental factors in the spawning ground

Wang Jintao; Gao Feng; Lei Lin; Guan Wenjiang; Chen Xinjun

doi:10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2014.12.012

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Wang Jintao, Gao Feng, Lei Lin, Guan Wenjiang, Chen Xinjun. Study on forecasting model of recruitment for Illex argentinus by using the environmental factors in the spawning ground[J]. Haiyang Xuebao, 2014, 36(12): 119-124. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2014.12.012

Citation:

Wang Jintao, Gao Feng, Lei Lin, Guan Wenjiang, Chen Xinjun. Study on forecasting model of recruitment for Illex argentinus by using the environmental factors in the spawning ground[J]. Haiyang Xuebao, 2014, 36(12): 119-124. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2014.12.012

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Study on forecasting model of recruitment for Illex argentinus by using the environmental factors in the spawning ground

doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2014.12.012

1.
College of Marine Sciences of Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China
2.
College of Marine Sciences of Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China;The Key Laboratory of Sustainable Exploitation of Oceanic Fisheries Resources, Ministry of Education, Shanghai 201306, China;National Distant-water Fisheries Engineering Research Center, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China

Received Date: 2013-12-09
Rev Recd Date: 2013-12-27

Abstract

Abstract

Illex argentinus is short-life cycle squid and is sensitive responding to environment changes with great abundance fluctuations. In this study,according to the fishing production data from Chinese mainland squid jigging fleets from 2003 to 2011 in the southwest Atlantic,combined with sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) in the spawning ground,the relationships between the area occupied by favorable SST (defined as those with temperatures in the range from 16℃ to 18℃,expressed by P_S),current strength (Characterized by SST,SSTA) and catch per unit effort (CPUE) were calculated and analyzed by different methods,and then the forecasting model of resources recruitment based on the above environmental factors were established. The results indicated that there are significant correlations between CPUE and SST at three key areas on June. The key areas are as follows: 38°-39°S and 54°-55°W,40.5°-41.5°S and 51°-52°W,39.9°-40.4°S and 42.6°-43.1°W,respectively. A multivariate linear model between the SST in three key areas and CPUE of the next year is established (p<0.05). The other models by using Error Backpropagation Network (EBP) were also developed,which included SST in three key areas and Ps on July. It is found that the model with SST in the key areas indicationg Falkland current and Brazil current is better than the other models,the forecasting accuracy rate was more than 90%.
- southwest Atlantic,
- Illex argentinus,
- forecasting resources recruitment,
- neural network

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References(20)

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