Sea level variations in the South China Sea during the 21st century under RCP4.5

Combining the Satellite altimeter data and SODA temperature-salinity data,in this paper we have simulated the long-term trends and the spatial distribution of the sea level of South China Sea (SCS) during the 21st century with the POP model. The forcing field of the POP model is the predicted global simulation results of CCSM4 (Community Climate System Model version4) model under the Representative Concentration Pathways Scenarios (RCP4.5). The simulated results show that the average sea level in the last ten years of 21st century of the South China Sea would rise by 15 to 39 cm compared to that in the last ten years of 20th century. The significant sea level increase would locate in areas such as the eastern and southeastern of Indo-China Peninsula,and the east and west sides of Luzon Strait. The maximum rise could reach up to 39 cm. If the influence of the melting glaciers such as Greenland sheet and Antarctica sheet was considered,the total rise of the south China sea level during the 21st century could reach 35 to 75 cm. The significant increase of the steric sea level would locate in areas such as the deep-water basin in the east of Luson Island,the waters between the Guangdong Coastal Current and Luzon Cold Eddy and the southeastern of Indo-China Peninsula. The total steric sea level change mainly came from thermal steric sea level,while the contribution of halo steric was small. The steric sea level rise rate was relatively low in the southern and western of South China Sea,e.g. a downward trend was shown on the northwest of Kalimantan Island,in the gulf of Thailand and on the west of Hainan Island.