A new method for analyzing track forecast error of typhoon

Typhoon track forecast error should include distance error and direction error, but in previous operational application and scientific research in favor only consider the distance error between observation position and forecast position of the corresponding time. In this paper the method of assessing the typhoon track error was improved. A new method of characterization of typhoon track error multiple-factor error method is established based on the distance error. The tropical cyclone（TC) best track data which compiled by Chinese Meteorological Administration（CMA) were as the standard, the TC tracks in the western North Pacific forecasted by CMA, U S Joint Typhoon Warning Center and Japan Meteorological Agency in 2008 and 2009, were analyzed by using the new multiple-factor method that attributes TC track forecast error, and with the distance error method which uses generally was compared. The results show that the quite obvious difference exists between the multiple-factor error analysis method and distance error analysis method. The multiple-factor error method superiority is quite obvious. It is an useful exploration to the more scientific assessment method for typhoon track forecast error. It has a certain practice application value.