Error propagation simulation and sensitivity analysis for air-sea CO<sub>2</sub> fluxes calculate by measured data

JIANG Jingang; ZHOU Bin.; MA Guochun; YU Zhifeng; DOU Wenjie; BAI Yan

doi:10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2013.04.008

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JIANG Jingang, ZHOU Bin., MA Guochun, YU Zhifeng, DOU Wenjie, BAI Yan. Error propagation simulation and sensitivity analysis for air-sea CO2 fluxes calculate by measured data[J]. Haiyang Xuebao, 2013, 35(4): 64-71. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2013.04.008

Citation:

JIANG Jingang, ZHOU Bin., MA Guochun, YU Zhifeng, DOU Wenjie, BAI Yan. Error propagation simulation and sensitivity analysis for air-sea CO₂ fluxes calculate by measured data[J]. Haiyang Xuebao, 2013, 35(4): 64-71. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2013.04.008

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Error propagation simulation and sensitivity analysis for air-sea CO₂ fluxes calculate by measured data

doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2013.04.008

1.
Institute of Remote Sensing and Earth Sciences, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121, China;Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Urban Wetland and Regional Change, Hangzhou 311121, China
2.
College of Science, Hengzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 310036, China
3.
State Key Laboratory of Statellite Ocean Environment Dynamics, Hangzhou 310012, China;Second Institute of Oceanography, State Oceanic Administration, Hangzhou 310012, China

Received Date: 2012-06-15
Rev Recd Date: 2012-10-09

Abstract

Abstract

The reliability of air-sea CO₂ fluxes estimation model parameters is an important factor in determining the reliability of the model and also determines the reliability of the model estimation results, so it is important to carry out the sea-air CO₂ fluxes estimation model error propagation law and sensitivity analysis for controlling the endmember factors of the model parameters, improving the model prediction accuracy and reducing the uncertainty. Since there are many parameters in the model, and various parameters influence each other, it is difficult to analyze error propagation process and sensitivity analysis. In this paper, based on the detailed analysis of air-sea CO₂ fluxes estimation model establishment process and the classic computation model of the air-sea CO₂ fluxes 2 partial pressure difference, taking the in situ data fluxes model establishment as an example, in term of the parameters in the model, assuming the normal distribution of the parameter error, the error propagation law of each parameter in the model was analyzed using the Monte Carlo technique, and the single-factor perturbation test method was used for the air-sea CO₂ fluxes estimation model parameters sensitivity analysis. It was shown from the simulation and analytical results: CO₂ flux measurement model error propagation law meet various forms, such as the normal distribution and exponential distribution; gas exchange coefficient is sensitive to the flux calculation results, and the wind speed and sea surface temperature accuracy are the critical parameters to be concerned and controlled in the process of the flux estimation.
- air-sea CO₂ fluexs,
- Monte Carlo method,
- error propagation simulation,
- sensitivity analysis

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References(29)

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