The assimilation technology application in the oil spill emergency forecasting system of the Bohai Sea

Li Yan; Zhu Jiang; Wang Hui; Lin Caiyan

doi:10.3969/J.ISSN.0253-4193.2014.03.012

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Li Yan, Zhu Jiang, Wang Hui, Lin Caiyan. The assimilation technology application in the oil spill emergency forecasting system of the Bohai Sea[J]. Haiyang Xuebao, 2014, 36(3): 113-120. doi: 10.3969/J.ISSN.0253-4193.2014.03.012

Citation:

Li Yan, Zhu Jiang, Wang Hui, Lin Caiyan. The assimilation technology application in the oil spill emergency forecasting system of the Bohai Sea[J]. Haiyang Xuebao, 2014, 36(3): 113-120. doi: 10.3969/J.ISSN.0253-4193.2014.03.012

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The assimilation technology application in the oil spill emergency forecasting system of the Bohai Sea

doi: 10.3969/J.ISSN.0253-4193.2014.03.012

1.
National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, Beijing 100081, China;Key Laboratory of Research on Marine Hazards Forecasting, National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, Beijing 100081, China
2.
Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
3.
Key Laboratory of Research on Marine Hazards Forecasting, National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, Beijing 100081, China
4.
Air Traffic Management Bureau, Civil Aviation Administration of China, Beijing 100122, China

Received Date: 2013-06-01
Rev Recd Date: 2013-11-18

Abstract

Abstract

The trajectory numerical forecasting of oil spill is very important to the accident handling of oil spill. Many researchers did a lot of work on oil spill forecasting technology. However, the success of each model depends on the model structure and schemes, the accuracy of input data (such as wind, current, oil source information) and the interpretation of results. Input data, especially wind data and current data, are subjected to many error sources. Now, the accuration of oil spill numerical forecasting still can't reach the level we need. With the developing of observation technology and capability, it becomes a major question that how to use these real-time observation data to improve the accuration of oil spill numerical forecasting in order to meet the requirements of emergency forecast. The oil spill operational numerical forecasting system of the Bohai Sea was established on 2008 by National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center(NMEFC). In the paper, in order to resolve these real troubles in the oil spill operational numerical forecasting system of the Bohai Sea, the OI assimilation technology is applied in the oil spill emergency forecasting system of the Bohai Sea by using the observation data of wind field of five oil platforms from January 2010 to February 2011 in the Bohai Sea. The relevant scale factor, which is a very important factor in OI assimilation method, is determined by cross-correct method. Then the optimal value of parameter in OI assimilation technology is determined in the case of the five observation stations such this distribution. After that, the technology is applied in an ideal case and a real case, the results both approve that the applying of the OI assimilation technology improve the accuration of oil spill numerical forecasting results. This work provide a simple method to improve the accuration of oil spill numerical forecasting results, and it also meet the requirements of the oil spill emergency prediction in term of convenience and quickness.
- oil spill,
- emergency forecasting,
- optimal interpolation assimilation method,
- OI,
- cross-correct

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References(20)

References

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