Contributions of natural and anthropogenic forcings to the twentieth-century Pacific sea surface temperature variability simulated by a climate system model

Dong Lu; Zhou Tianjun

doi:10.3969/J.ISSN.0253-4193.2014.03.006

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Dong Lu, Zhou Tianjun. Contributions of natural and anthropogenic forcings to the twentieth-century Pacific sea surface temperature variability simulated by a climate system model[J]. Haiyang Xuebao, 2014, 36(3): 48-60. doi: 10.3969/J.ISSN.0253-4193.2014.03.006

Citation:

Dong Lu, Zhou Tianjun. Contributions of natural and anthropogenic forcings to the twentieth-century Pacific sea surface temperature variability simulated by a climate system model[J]. Haiyang Xuebao, 2014, 36(3): 48-60. doi: 10.3969/J.ISSN.0253-4193.2014.03.006

Citation:

Dong Lu, Zhou Tianjun. Contributions of natural and anthropogenic forcings to the twentieth-century Pacific sea surface temperature variability simulated by a climate system model[J]. Haiyang Xuebao, 2014, 36(3): 48-60. doi: 10.3969/J.ISSN.0253-4193.2014.03.006

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Contributions of natural and anthropogenic forcings to the twentieth-century Pacific sea surface temperature variability simulated by a climate system model

doi: 10.3969/J.ISSN.0253-4193.2014.03.006

Dong Lu¹,
Zhou Tianjun²

1.
State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China;Graduate University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
2.
State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China

Received Date: 2013-01-09
Rev Recd Date: 2013-05-28

Abstract

Abstract

Contributions of natural and anthropogenic forcings to the twentieth-century Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) decadal variability are evaluated with a climate system model named FGOALS_gl developed by LASG/IAP. The observational data shows that there are three typical periods of the twentieth-century Pacific SST variability: a warming tendency in the early twentieth-century,the weak cooling during 1940s—1970s and the strong warming trend after the 1970s. The first leading mode of the twentieth-century Pacific SST variability features an oscillatorily warming in the whole Pacific basin,and the second one appears as Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) with a significant inter-decadal transition in the late-1970s. The simulations support that the early stage warming is resulted from a combination of the anthropogenic forcing and the internal variability. And the pronounced late twentieth-century warming is dominated by the increase of greenhouse gases(GHGs) forcing. During the two warming periods of the twentieth-century,the natural forcing and internal variability dominate the changes in Kuroshio Extension (KE) region,and the anthropogenic forcing dominates the changes in other parts of Pacific. The first two leading modes of the twentieth-century Pacific SST variability can be reproduced by the all-forcing run. The PDO would become the dominant mode and the inter-decadal transition would take place in the mid-1960s if the anthropogenic forcing is not included. These results indicate that the anthropogenic forcing dominates the warming in the whole Pacific basin and leads to a 10 a delay of the inter-decadal transition. Therefore,the inter-decadal transition of PDO phase is caused by natural forcing,while the anthropogenic forcing can modulate the transition point.
- climate system model,
- twentieth-century Pacific sea surface temperature variability,
- natural forcing,
- anthropogenic forcing,
- internal variability

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