Calculation of extreme water level with the effect of sea level rise

Xie Dongmei; Pan Junning; Wang Hongchuan; Yang Fan; Luo Xiaofeng

doi:10.12284/hyxb2023033

Volume 45 Issue 4

Mar. 2023

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Xie Dongmei，Pan Junning，Wang Hongchuan, et al. Calculation of extreme water level with the effect of sea level rise[J]. Haiyang Xuebao，2023, 45(4)：17–30 doi: 10.12284/hyxb2023033

Citation:

Xie Dongmei，Pan Junning，Wang Hongchuan, et al. Calculation of extreme water level with the effect of sea level rise[J]. Haiyang Xuebao，2023, 45(4)：17–30 doi: 10.12284/hyxb2023033

Citation:

Xie Dongmei，Pan Junning，Wang Hongchuan, et al. Calculation of extreme water level with the effect of sea level rise[J]. Haiyang Xuebao，2023, 45(4)：17–30 doi: 10.12284/hyxb2023033

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Calculation of extreme water level with the effect of sea level rise

doi: 10.12284/hyxb2023033

1.
College of Harbour, Coastal and Offshore Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
2.
State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210029, China
3.
Key Laboratory of Port, Waterway and Sedimentation Engineering of the Ministry of Transport, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210024, China

Received Date: 2022-03-29
Rev Recd Date: 2022-09-30

Available Online: 2022-10-28

Publish Date: 2023-03-31

Abstract

Abstract

Based on the extreme value theory of non-stationary sequences, this study carried out the quantitative analysis of the effect of sea level rise on the exceedance probability of extreme water levels. A new method for the estimation of extreme water level with sea level rise was proposed by adopting the overall exceedance probability of extreme water level within the design lifetime of coastal facilities as a critical constraint. With the incorporation of sea level rise in the location parameter of Gumbel distribution, the new method allows the adjustment of the annual exceedance probability of extreme water levels along with sea level rise over time. The validity of the proposed method was examined using the long term sea level measurement data at 10 tide gauge stations globally. Using the five global mean sea level rise scenarios projected by IPCC, the extreme water levels for different design lifetime of coastal facilities with sea level rise were estimated, and the return periods of the extreme water levels were also evaluated.
- sea level rise,
- extreme sea level,
- extreme value theory of non-stationary sequences,
- design lifetime,
- occurrence probability

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References(46)

References

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