Tracking and forecasting method and numerical simulation of high-risk ice in cold wave weather

Zhang Na; Xu Shengkai; Xu Ning; Wang Litao; Wang Anliang

doi:10.12284/hyxb2023015

Volume 45 Issue 2

Feb. 2023

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Zhang Na，Xu Shengkai，Xu Ning, et al. Tracking and forecasting method and numerical simulation of high-risk ice in cold wave weather[J]. Haiyang Xuebao，2023, 45(2)：110–117 doi: 10.12284/hyxb2023015

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Tracking and forecasting method and numerical simulation of high-risk ice in cold wave weather

doi: 10.12284/hyxb2023015

1.
Tianjin Key Laboratory of Soft Soil Characteristics & Engineering Environment, Tianjin Chengjian University, Tianjin 300384, China
2.
National Marine Environmental Monitoring Center, Dalian 116023, China
3.
National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, Beijing 100081, China

Received Date: 2022-08-08
Rev Recd Date: 2022-09-04

Available Online: 2022-11-23

Publish Date: 2023-02-01

Abstract

Abstract

To provide technical support for sea ice environmental monitoring and dynamic risk early warning in the sea area of the proposed, under construction and built cold source water intake project in cold regions, a Lagrangian particle tracking prediction model under the sea ice ocean coupling condition is constructed in this paper. Taking the water intake of a nuclear power station in the Liaodong Bay as an example, the migration trajectories of high-risk ice blocks in 24 h, 48 h and 72 h under cold wave weather and the probability of entering the water intake are simulated and discussed. The results show that since the direction of the water intake is almost perpendicular to the flow direction and wind direction, less than 6% of the 1200 high-risk ice particles randomly released outside the water intake enter the water intake. It is found that most of the particles come from within 300 m near the water intake by identifying the particle color in different regions. The results of sensitivity analysis showed that when the number of released particles increased to 5 times, the conclusion remained unchanged. This study provides a new method for safety early warning of cold source water intake.
- Liaodong Bay,
- cold source water intake,
- sea ice,
- coupling model,
- Lagrangian particle tracking model

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References(22)

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