Medium and long term statistical prediction of sea surface height anomaly in the South China Sea based on evolutionary operator

Li Meilian; Jin Mujun; Ji Zenghua; Li Wei; Liang Kangzhuang

doi:10.12284/hyxb2021185

Volume 43 Issue 12

Dec. 2021

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Li Meilian，Jin Mujun，Ji Zenghua, et al. Medium and long term statistical prediction of sea surface height anomaly in the South China Sea based on evolutionary operator[J]. Haiyang Xuebao，2021, 43(12)：122–132 doi: 10.12284/hyxb2021185

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Medium and long term statistical prediction of sea surface height anomaly in the South China Sea based on evolutionary operator

doi: 10.12284/hyxb2021185

1.
School of Marine Science and Technology, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China
2.
Tianjin Key Laboratory for Oceanic Meteorology, Tianjin 300074, China

Received Date: 2020-10-31
Rev Recd Date: 2021-01-28

Available Online: 2021-12-10

Publish Date: 2021-12-30

Abstract

Abstract

When performing work, underwater platforms usually need about 1-month to 3-months ocean numerical forecasts results. However, the current numerical forecasting technology is limited to the corresponding weather-driven field forecasting, and it is difficult to provide numerical forecast products for more than 10 days. Considering that the seawater itself has large inertia physically, and the inner ocean area has its own evolutionary principles, a statistical prediction method based on evolutionary operator is proposed. The method uses historical satellite remote sensing data to construct a long-term evolution matrix of ocean state variables, and then combines with the inertial prediction model. The final medium- and long-term statistical prediction model of the South China Sea is constructed, which can provide the prediction results for 1 d to 60 d of daily sea surface height anomaly in the South China Sea. We carry out the numerical experiments to show the effectiveness of the method. The results show that the correlation coefficients between the forecast results and the satellite data are all higher than 0.8 within 15 days and higher than 0.6 within 60 days after the start date of forecast.
- ocean forecast,
- evolution operator,
- medium- and long-range

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References

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