Stock assessment for Atlantic yellowfin tuna based on Bayesian state-space production model

Tian Zhipan; Tian Siquan; Dai Libin; Ma Qiuyun

doi:10.12284/hyxb2021002

Volume 43 Issue 2

Mar. 2021

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Tian Zhipan，Tian Siquan，Dai Libin, et al. Stock assessment for Atlantic yellowfin tuna based on Bayesian state-space production model[J]. Haiyang Xuebao，2021, 43(2)：67–77 doi: 10.12284/hyxb2021002

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Stock assessment for Atlantic yellowfin tuna based on Bayesian state-space production model

doi: 10.12284/hyxb2021002

Tian Zhipan^1
,,
Tian Siquan^{1, 2, 3},
Dai Libin¹,
Ma Qiuyun^{1, 2, 3
,
,}

1.
College of Marine Science, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China
2.
National Engineering Research Center for Oceanic Fisheries, Shanghai 201306, China
3.
Key Laboratory of Sustainable Exploitation of Oceanic Fisheries Resources, Ministry of Education, Shanghai 201306, China

Received Date: 2019-12-11
Rev Recd Date: 2020-05-09

Available Online: 2020-12-24

Publish Date: 2021-03-02

Abstract

Abstract

Yellowfin tuna (Thunnus albacares) is an important fishing target for offshore fisheries worldwide. Stock assessment is essential for its fishery management of sustainable exploitation. According to catch and catch per unit effort (CPUE) data from the International Commission for Conservation of Atlantic Tunas (ICCAT), the Bayesian state space model was conducted to make stock assessment in an open environment (Just Another Bayesian Biomass Assessment) and to compare the effects of different surplus production forms and CPUE data on the assessment. The results showed that the model performed best with the Fox surplus production form and CPUE data of four fleets (United States, Venezuela, Japan and Chinese Taipei). The median and 95% confidence intervals for carrying capacity, intrinsic growth rate were 178 (140, 229)×10⁴ t and 0.210 (0.159, 0.274), respectively. The current stock was not overfished (B/B_MSY=1.109) and was not subject to overfishing (F/F_MSY=0.893). Sensitivity analysis revealed that when the rates of reported catch divided by the actual catch were 70%, 80%, 90%, 110%, 120%, and 130%, the current biomass assessment results were higher with lower fishing rate, but the stock was still in a healthy status. When the total allowable catch (TAC) was set at 11×10⁴ t, the stock would remain basically healthy until 2024. The results from this stock assessment is generally consistent with ICCAT's current stock assessment results, so it is recommended to set a TAC of 11×10⁴ t to keep the stock status healthy and sustainable exploitation of this important fishery.
- Atlantic Ocean,
- yellowfin tuna,
- stock assessment,
- surplus production model,
- sensitivity analysis

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References(37)

References

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