A 100-year reconstruction of typhoon events on the inner shelf of the East China Sea: Coupling of meteorological observations and sedimentary records
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摘要: 未来全球变化可能带来极端事件的强度增加、频度提高，加之海面上升加快，给海岸带防灾减灾工作带来更新防护标准的课题。由于台风的器测记录时间较短，需要从其他载体寻找替代指标以延长台风记录的时间跨度，这样才能更好地估计极端事件的强度–频率关系。陆架泥质区的风暴事件沉积记录和历史文献中的有关灾害记录，是拓展台风记录的两个方向。本文试图通过台风观测记录与沉积记录的耦合，重建百年尺度东海内陆架泥质区的风暴事件沉积记录，并与气象灾害记载的台风暴潮成灾事件相印证，以期探讨陆架泥对台风事件的保存潜力，及其可能反映的台风信息(如路径和强度)。2018年在浙江温岭近海采集了2 m长的柱样沉积物(J1)，通过多指标(粒径分布、D90、Zr/Fe、Sr/Al、Ca)综合识别出台风沉积事件；采用放射性同位素210Pb定年法确定沉积物的年代序列，将识别的台风沉积记录与器测台风记录通过时间标尺进行耦合分析。结果显示，J1的沉积速率约为1.1 cm/a，年代跨度大约是1836年至2018年；整根柱样共识别出25次台风沉积事件，其中气象观测时期(1950−2018年)有10次台风事件留下了沉积记录，这10次台风的平均风速与影响J1的所有台风平均风速比较接近，且大多数属于登陆浙闽、成灾较严重的III型和IV型台风。通过多变量综合分析，发现就J1而言，沉积记录中台风事件的保存潜力约为30%；另外，历史文献中记载的台风事件可能偏重于登陆、成灾的较强台风，因而文献记录的台风数量显著少于实际产生影响的台风数量。这些认识有助于更好地利用沉积记录中保存的台风事件拓展台风记录的时间跨度，也有助于指导未来的采样地点，以尽可能多地获得保存更完整的台风沉积记录。Abstract: Future global changes may increase the intensity and frequency of extreme events, coupled with the rapid rise in sea level, bringing the issue of updated protection standards to the coastal areas. Due to the short length of observational records, it is necessary to find other alternative records to extend typhoon records other than meteorological observations. The sedimentary records and historical documents provide alternative approaches to extend typhoon records. This study attempts to reconstruct typhoon events on a 100-year scale on the inner shelf of the East China Sea through coupling of meteorological observations and sedimentary records. This reconstruction is compared with the meteorological disaster records to explore the preservation potential, path and intensity of typhoon events in the shelf mud area. In May 2018, a 2 m Core J1 was collected in the offshore area of Zhejiang Province. Typhoon events were comprehensively identified by multiple indicators (grain size distribution, D90, Zr/Fe, Sr/Al and Ca). The radioisotope 210Pb dating method was used to determine the age model of Core J1. The results show that the sedimentation rate of Core J1 is about 1.1 cm/a, and the time span is about 1836 to 2018. 25 typhoon events are identified in Core J1 and 10 of which match the meteorological observation period (1950−2018). The average wind speed of the 10 typhoons is close to the one of all typhoons affecting Core J1, and most of them belong to the strong typhoons of type III and IV landing on Zhejiang Province and Fujian Province. Through multivariate comprehensive analysis, it is found that the preservation potential of typhoon events in sedimentary records is close to 30% for Core J1. In addition, the typhoon events recorded in historical documents may be biased towards stronger landing typhoons, thus the number of typhoons recorded in literatures is significantly less than that actually affected. The knowledge obtained here helps to not only make better use of sedimentary records to expand the time span of typhoon records, but also guide future sampling to obtain more complete typhoon sedimentary records.
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图 2 J1沉积物粒度组分与粒度参数垂向分布
蓝色横向条带为异常层序
Fig. 2 Vertical distribution of grain size composition and grain size parameters of Core J1
The horizontal blue horizontal lines indicate abnormal layers
图 3 J1中与粒度相关的8种单元素含量垂直分布
蓝色横向条带为异常层序
Fig. 3 Vertical distributions of the content of 8 single elements from Core J1
The horizontal blue horizontal lines indicate abnormal layers
图 4 J1柱样总210Pb比活度、226Ra比活度以及210Pbex比活度的垂直分布
Fig. 4 Vertical distributions of total 210Pb activity, 226Ra activity and 210Pbex activity of Core J1
图 5 1950−2019年影响J1的台风最大风速（a）与频率（b）
Fig. 5 Maximum wind speeds (a) and frequencies (b) of typhoons affecting Core J1 from 1950 to 2019
图 6 台风沉积事件识别标准判断图
Fig. 6 A flow chart for identifying typhoon events in sedimentary records
图 7 J1的多指标台风层序识别
虚线为各参数的平均值，灰色条纹区域为异常层序。浅灰色S序列标号为台风层序、深灰色N序列标号为非台风层序
Fig. 7 Multi-indexes typhoon sequence identification of Core J1
The vertical dotted lines show the average values of each parameter, and the horizontal gray lines indicate the identified abnormal layers. Light gray lines with label “S” are typhoon records and dark gray layers with label “N” are non-typhoon records
图 8 1950年以来有器测记录时期J1（0～100 cm深度）的多指标台风层序识别图
天蓝色横条区域为器测时期（1950−2018年）异常层序。数字T1−T10代表10次台风沉积事件
Fig. 8 Multi-index typhoon deposits identified during meteorological observation period in Core J1 (0−100 cm)
The horizontal light blue stripes represent the abnormal layers during meteorological observation period (1950−2018). The numbers T1 to T10 represent 10 typhoon deposition events
图 9 1950−2018年影响J1的台风强度
Fig. 9 The typhoon intensity affecting Core J1 from 1950 to 2018
表 1 1950−2000年相关参数数据
Tab. 1 Relevant parameter data from 1950 to 2000
时间跨度（年数） 识别出台风沉积
事件的数量影响J1点台风的
数量1990−2000年（10年） 3 7 1980−2000年（20年） 5 14 1970−2000年（30年） 8 21 1960−2000年（40年） 10 28 1950−2000年（50年） 10 33 
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表 2 1950−2018年在J1沉积记录中识别出的10次台风的相关参数
Tab. 2 Parameters of 10 typhoons identified in Core J1 from 1950 to 2018
沉积事件编号 210Pb测年 对应的气象记录 台风编号 台风类型 登陆地点 影响J1的时间 影响J1的风速/m·s−1 T1 2000年 0004（Kai-tak） Ⅲ型 台州 2000年7月10日 25.5 T2 1997年 9711（Winnie） Ⅲ型 温州 1997年8月18日 35.9 T3 1992年 9219（Ted） Ⅲ型 台州 1992年9月23日 20.7 T4 1989年 8920（Vera） Ⅲ型 台州 1989年9月15日 25.0 T5 1987年 8707(Alex) Ⅲ型 温州 1987年7月27日 20.3 T6 1978年 7811（Carmen） Ⅲ型 莆田 1978年8月13日 29.7 T7 1975年 7514（Doris） Ⅲ型 温州 1975年10月7日 25.0 T8 1972年 7209(Betty) Ⅲ型 乐清 1972年8月17日 26.9 T9 1966年 6616(Alice) Ⅳ型 宁德 1966年9月3日 23.1 T10 1964年 6405（Betty） Ⅱ型 − 1964年7月15日 32.0 注：−表示未登陆；1959年之后采用中央气象局台风编号；台风类型见图1。
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