基于Tweedie-GAM模型研究海州湾小黄鱼资源丰度与栖息环境的关系

张云雷; 徐宾铎; 张崇良; 任一平; 薛莹

doi:10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2019.12.008

基于Tweedie-GAM模型研究海州湾小黄鱼资源丰度与栖息环境的关系

doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2019.12.008

张云雷^1,,
徐宾铎¹,
张崇良¹,
任一平^{1, 2},
薛莹^1, ,

1.
中国海洋大学水产学院，山东青岛 266003
2.
青岛海洋科学与技术试点国家实验室海洋渔业科学与食物产出过程功能实验室，山东青岛 266071

基金项目: 国家重点研发计划项目（2017YFE0104400）；国家自然科学基金项目（31772852）；中央高校基本科研业务费专项（201562030，201612004）。

详细信息

作者简介:
张云雷（1994—），男，河南省永城市人，研究方向为渔业生态学。E-mail：583578675@qq.com

通讯作者:
薛莹，教授，主要从事渔业生态学研究。E-mail：xueying@ouc.edu.cn

中图分类号: S931.4
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2018-10-09
- 修回日期: 2018-12-21
- 网络出版日期: 2021-04-21
- 刊出日期: 2019-12-25

Relationship between the habitat factors and the abundance of small yellow croaker (Larimichthys polyactis) in Haizhou Bay based on the Tweedie-GAM model

1.
Fisheries College, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266003, China
2.
Laboratory for Marine Fisheries Science and Food Production Processes, Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (Qingdao), Qingdao 266071, China

摘要

摘要: 本研究根据2011年及2013—2016年春季和秋季在海州湾及其邻近海域进行的底拖网调查数据，结合同步采集的底层海水温度、底层海水盐度、水深、底质类型，以及脊腹褐虾(Crangon affinis)、细螯虾(Leptochela gracilis)、鳀(Engraulis japonicus)、赤鼻棱鳀(Thrissa kammalensis)等小黄鱼(Larimichthys polyactis)主要饵料生物的资源丰度数据，采用条件数κ和方差膨胀因子(VIF)度量多重共线性的程度，选取关键环境因子，再应用基于Tweedie分布的广义可加模型(GAM)研究不同季节和不同生长阶段的小黄鱼资源丰度与环境因子的关系。多重共线性的检验表明，所有初始变量之间没有显著的多重共线性，均可作为解释变量代入模型。结果表明：不同季节和生长阶段，影响小黄鱼资源分布的主要因子及其偏差解释率各不相同，各变量所对应的适宜范围也不同。例如：影响春季小黄鱼幼体资源分布的主要因子有底层海水温度、底层海水盐度、水深和脊腹褐虾的分布，其中偏差解释率最大的因子为水深(16.09%)；而影响春季成体资源分布的因子为底层海水温度、底层海水盐度、水深及脊腹褐虾和鳀的分布，其中偏差解释率最大的因子为底层海水盐度(13.56%)。本研究表明，海州湾及其邻近海域不同季节和不同生长阶段小黄鱼的资源分布与其自身的生态习性、海洋环境以及饵料生物的分布密切相关。
- Tweedie分布 /
- 广义可加模型 /
- 饵料生物 /
- 多重共线性 /
- 资源分布
Abstract: According to the data collected from bottom-trawl surveys in Haizhou Bay and adjacent waters during spring and fall in 2011 and 2013–2016, generalized additive model (GAM) based on the Tweedie distribution was used to examine the relationship between the distribution of small yellow croaker (Larimichthys polyactis) and environment factors in different seasons and ontogenetic stages. Combined with the bottom sea water temperature (BSWT), bottom sea water salinity (BSWS), water depth, sediment types, and abundance of prey (Crangon affinis, Leptochela gracilis, Engraulis japonicus, Thrissa kammalensis), the conditional index k and Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) were used to measure the degree of multicollinearity between these factors. The results of multicollinearity indicated that all factors can be used as explanatory variables. The results of Tweedie-GAM show that the factors affecting the distribution of small yellow croaker and their deviance explained varied greatly with seasons (spring and fall) and ontogenetic stages (juvenile and adult). For example, the factors affecting the spring-juvenile small yellow croaker distribution were BSWT, BSWS, water depth and the abundance of C. affinis, which depth had the largest deviance explained (16.09%). In addition, the factors affecting the spring-adultl yellow croaker distribution were BSWT, BSWS, water depth and the abundance of C. affinis and E.japonicus, which BSWS had the largest deviance explained (13.56%). The distribution of small yellow croaker in different seasons and ontogenetic stages was found to be closely related to its ecological habits, environmental factors and distribution of prey in Haizhou Bay and adjacent waters.
- Tweedie distribution /
- GAM /
- prey /
- multicollinearity /
- resource distribution

HTML全文

图 1 海州湾调查区域图

Fig. 1 Sampling areas in Haizhou Bay

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 2011年及2013–2016年春季和秋季海州湾小黄鱼幼体和成体的资源分布

Fig. 2 Spatial distribution of small yellow croaker abundance in Haizhou Bay in 2011 and 2013–2016

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 3 环境因子及饵料生物对海州湾春季小黄鱼幼体资源丰度分布的影响

图中实线表示影响效应，虚线表示影响效应的95%置信区间

Fig. 3 Effects of different environmental and prey factors on small yellow croaker juveniles’ abundance from the GAM analysis in the Haizhou Bay during spring

The solid line in the figure represents the effect, and the dotted line represents the 95% confidence interval of the effect

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 4 环境因子及饵料生物对海州湾春季小黄鱼成体资源丰度分布的影响

图中实线表示影响效应，虚线表示影响效应的95%置信区间

Fig. 4 Effects of different environmental and prey factors on small yellow croaker adults’ abundance from the GAM analysis in the Haizhou Bay during spring

The solid line in the figure represents the effect, and the dotted line represents the 95% confidence interval of the effect

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 5 环境因子及饵料生物对海州湾秋季小黄鱼幼体资源丰度分布的影响

图中实线表示影响效应，虚线表示影响效应的95%置信区间

Fig. 5 Effects of different environmental and prey factors on small yellow croaker juveniles’ abundance from the GAM analysis in the Haizhou Bay during fall

The solid line in the figure represents the effect, and the dotted line represents the 95% confidence interval of the effect

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 6 环境因子及饵料生物对海州湾秋季小黄鱼成体资源丰度分布的影响

图中实线表示影响效应，虚线表示影响效应的95%置信区间

Fig. 6 Effects of different environmental and prey factors on small yellow croaker adults’ abundance from the GAM analysis in the Haizhou Bay during fall

The solid line in the figure represents the effect, and the dotted line represents the 95% confidence interval of the effect

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 影响因子的多重共线性检验及各因子的共线性程度

Tab. 1 Test and degree of multicollinearity of factors

度量变量	春季幼体	春季成体	秋季幼体	秋季成体
条件数${\rm{\kappa }}$	11.009	11.806	2.250	2.986
初始变量
底层海水温度	1.815	1.853	1.017	1.030
底层海水盐度	1.264	1.303	1.062	1.062
水深	1.666	1.676	1.143	1.168
底质类型	1.606	1.715	1.218	1.295
细螯虾的分布	1.082	1.098	1.087	1.126
脊腹褐虾的分布	1.353	1.360	1.066	1.070
鳀的分布		1.065		1.062
赤鼻棱鳀的分布		1.079		1.137
注：初始变量中的数字代表$\sqrt {vif} $根号下方差膨胀因子。

下载: 导出CSV

表 2 海州湾小黄鱼最优GAM模型中各影响因子的相关参数

Tab. 2 Parameters of each factors in the optimal GAM model of four small yellow croaker groups

模型	赤池信息准则（AIC）	∆AIC	残偏差	累积解释偏差/%	偏差解释率/%
春季幼体
底层海水盐度	212.43		438.55	9.82	9.82
+水深	208.44	–3.99	399.09	25.91	16.09
+脊腹褐虾的分布	206.48	–1.95	323.47	35.50	9.58
+底层海水温度	204.88	–1.60	290.34	43.53	8.03
春季成体
水深	451.05		147.11	3.76	3.76
+底层海水盐度	449.50	–1.55	150.81	17.32	13.56
+底层海水温度	446.38	–3.12	143.27	22.57	5.25
+脊腹褐虾的分布	445.59	–0.79	134.94	28.84	6.27
+鳀的分布	445.07	–0.52	127.56	35.42	6.58
秋季幼体
水深	360.54		379.10	25.11	25.11
+底层海水温度	352.30	–8.23	274.99	41.47	16.36
+底层海水盐度	350.42	–1.88	215.57	47.16	5.69
+细螯虾的分布	347.18	–3.24	144.13	54.35	7.19
秋季成体
水深	791.82		189.29	20.82	20.82
+沉积物类型	786.27	–5.55	212.45	36.77	15.95
+底层海水盐度	781.15	–5.12	196.49	41.97	5.21
+赤鼻棱鳀的分布	776.39	–4.76	191.00	46.64	4.67
+细螯虾的分布	775.09	–1.30	192.36	48.82	2.18
+脊腹褐虾的分布	773.81	–1.28	184.15	50.93	2.11
+底层海水温度	771.30	–2.51	175.81	52.89	1.96
注：“+”表示添加变量。

下载: 导出CSV

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