Obtaining typhoon information from sedimentary records in coastal-shelf waters
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摘要: 长时间尺度风暴强度–频率关系与气候变化相关联，而器测记录和历史记载难以提供充分的信息，因此从沉积记录中提取风暴信息成为一个前沿科学问题。在应用上，这项研究可为海岸带城市群应对未来气候和海面变化提供决策依据。本文回顾了台风沉积记录研究进展，显示陆架泥质沉积、海滩及海岸沙丘、潮滩、潟湖、巨砾是台风事件记录的良好载体，可通过层序形态和物质特性分析而识别。同时，还需进一步完善分析方法，以区分台风、冬季风暴、河流洪水和海啸等不同类型的极端事件沉积。在台风强度信息提取方面，陆架泥质沉积所含贝壳–粗颗粒沉积物可作为海底再悬浮强度的指标，但需更多实测数据的率定；海滩及海岸沙丘顶部的台风沉积分布高程指示了台风激浪流的上冲高度，而台风巨砾的重量可以与近岸波浪的波高建立联系。以上数据经过换算后可以得出台风强度的信息，虽然这些间接的沉积学信息还不足以建立风暴强度–频率关系，但有助于台风强度大数据的建立。潮滩、潟湖沉积连续性好，可构成台风事件的时间序列，然而关于台风强度却是多解的，台风最大风力、持续时间、移动路径、登陆地点的不同组合可能产生同样的事件沉积。我们建议，应发展台风信息提取的新方法，来解决这个问题。进行现代过程模拟，根据已知的台风事件资料构建沉积物输运堆积模型，使之能够复演事件沉积的特征；进行多个地点事件沉积的反演模拟，在此情形下，即便每个站位的结果是多解的，但针对多个站位上求取其解的交集之后，多解性将下降，这种模拟方法可称之为“解空间收缩法”；采用大数据融合方式，将其他来源的台风强度数据纳入模拟体系，可进一步降低风暴信息提取的不确定性。动力过程模拟与大数据融合方法的建立，有助于获得与沉积记录同样时间尺度的台风强度–频率关系曲线，进而分析台风动态与气候变化的关系。Abstract: The typhoon intensity-frequency relationship over a long period of time is related to climate change, but it is difficult to provide sufficient information from instrumental and historical records. Therefore, to extract storm information from sedimentary records has become a critical scientific problem; the solution to the problem can provide a decision-making basis for coastal cities to cope with future climate and sea level changes. The present study on the progress in the research of typhoon sedimentary records shows that shelf mud deposits, beaches and coastal dunes, tidal flats, lagoons and storm boulders contain records of extreme events. These event layers can be identified by stratigraphic sequence features and sediment characteristics. Typhoon records along the coastline of China have been found in large quantities, but further improvements to the information-obtaining methodology are needed to distinguish between deposits of typhoons, winter outbreaks, river floods and tsunami events. Thus, in terms of the information on typhoon intensity in shelf muds, coarse-grained and shell particles in the deposits can be used as indicators of intensity of bottom resuspension, but calibration with sufficient measurements is required. The elevation of typhoon deposit on the top of beaches and coastal dunes may indicate the height of swash during a typhoon event, while the size of storm boulders has a significant correlation with the offshore wave height. These data can be used to deduce typhoon intensity, although they are not enough to establish the intensity-frequency relationship. Tidal flat and lagoon deposits have a high continuity and can be used to reconstruct the time series of typhoon events. However, the solution to typhoon intensity is not unique because different combinations of maximum wind speed, path, landing place and duration may produce the same event deposit. We propose that a new method of obtaining typhoon information should be developed to solve this problem. Numerical simulation of modern process, with the help and assimilation of available data and knowledge of typhoon events, would be useful to reproduce the characteristics of event deposits. Then, inverse simulation for event deposits can be carried out for multiple locations, to constrain the solution domain. This method may be referred to as "solution domain constraining method". The uncertainty can be further reduced by means of big data analysis, i.e., incorporating other dataset of typhoon intensity into the simulation system. A combination of dynamic process simulation and big data treatment is helpful to the establishment of the intensity-frequency curve of typhoon with the same time scale as the sedimentary record; on such a basis, the relationship between typhoon variation and climate change can be analyzed.
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图 1 全球台风发源、生长区分布[2]
1. 大西洋（包括北大西洋、墨西哥湾和加勒比海）；2. 东北太平洋（由墨西哥至日期变更线）；3. 西北太平洋（由日期变更线至亚洲包括南海）；4. 北印度洋（包括孟加拉湾和阿拉伯海）；5. 西南印度洋（非洲至100°E）；6. 东南印度洋/澳大利亚（100°～142°E）；7. 澳大利亚/西南太平洋（142°E～120°W）；RSMC表示区域性专职气象中心
Fig. 1 Global distribution of tropical cyclone source areas[2]
1. Atlantic basin (including the North Atlantic, the Gulf of Mexico, and the Caribbean Sea); 2. northeast Pacific Ocean (from Mexico to the International Date Line); 3. northwest Pacific Ocean (from the International Date Line to Asia, including the South China Sea); 4. north Indian Ocean (including the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea); 5. southwest Indian Ocean (from Africa to 100°E); 6. Southeast Indian Ocean/Australia (100°E to 142°E); 7. Australia/Southwest Pacific Ocean (142°E to 120°W); RSMC denotes Regional Specialized Meteorological Center
图 3 现场观测仪器架设方案
a和b为潮滩观测常规仪器，RBR观测水位、有效波高、有效波周期，ADCP和Aquadopp观测剖面流速，ADV观测定点三维流速和底部高程，OBS观测定点悬沙浓度，ASM观测剖面悬沙浓度。c和d分别为潟湖水文观测的流速仪和水位仪（修改自文献[20-21])
Fig. 3 Instrument deployment for in site observations
a and b are conventional instruments for tidal flat observation including RBR (water level, significant wave-height, significant wave-period), ADCP and Aquadopp (current velocity profile), ADV (3d velocity and bed level), OBS (suspended sediment concentration) and ASM (suspended sediment concentration profile); c is current meter for lagoon environment observations; and d is water level gauge (modified from references [20-21])
图 4 西北太平洋台风特征
a为1945–2010年台风路径图（灰色线条是台风路径，黑点是台风源地，修改自文献[22]）；b为台风路径分类简图：(1)代表NW-N向移动，主要登陆东亚地区，(2)代表W-NW向移动，主要登陆东南亚和我国华南地区，(3)和(4)代表NW-NE向移动，较少登陆（据文献[23]绘制）
Fig. 4 Typhoon characteristics in the Northwest Pacific region
a is typhoon tracks from 1945 to 2010 (gray lines indicate the typhoon tracks and the black points indicate typhoon genesis, modified from reference [22]); b is four types of typhoon tracks: (1) represents typhoons traveling towards NW-N, with around 75% of them causing landfall over East Asia, (2) represents typhoons moving towards W-NW, with 97% of them striking Southeast Asia and/or southern China, and (3) and (4) represent typhoons moving towards NW and NE, with a small probability of reaching land (modified from reference [23])
图 5 1960–2017年西北太平洋台风频次和持续时间年际变化特征
a.台风频次; b.持续时间
Fig. 5 Interannual variations of frequency and duration of typhoons in the western Pacific from 1960 to 2017
a.Typhoon frequency; b. duration of typhoon
图 7 风暴沉积的岩芯光学图像（a）、X射线照片（b）、粒径分析图（c）和X射线荧光光谱图（d, e）
X射线照片白色层为砂砾质物质，深灰色层为细颗粒沉积物（据文献[75]改绘）
Fig. 7 Optical image (a), X-radiograph (b), grain-size (c) and X-ray fluorescence (d, e) from representative storm deposits
For X-radiographs, white layer represents coarse-grained, dense sandy material and black layer represents fine-grained, organic-rich fair-weather, backbarrier deposits (modified from reference [75])
图 9 典型台风巨砾沉积（摄于海南岛小东海）
Fig. 9 Typical typhoon boulder deposits (Xiaodonghai, Hainan Island)
图 10 不同特征风暴沉积记录的冲淤属性示意图
Fig. 10 Diagram showing erosion and deposition properties of storm sedimentary records
图 11 沉积记录和参数统计模型建立的台风强度–频率曲线
风速代表了台风强度，虚线为95%置信区间（修改自文献[165]）；只有最上端的一个数据点来自沉积记录
Fig. 11 Typhoon intensity-frequency curve based on sediment record and parametric statistical model
The wind speed represents the typhoon intensity, and the dotted lines reveal the 95% confidence interval (modified from reference [165]). Only one data point from the top was derived from the sedimentary record
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