Evaluation of hindcast simulation with the ocean and sea-ice model covering the Arctic and adjacent oceans
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摘要: 本文将目前先进的大尺度海洋、海冰模式(NEMO3.6和LIM3)应用于北大西洋–北冰洋–北太平洋(简称NAPA)，并进行了试验后报模拟。所建立的模式NAPA1/4和NAPA1/12的水平分辨率分别为(1/4)°和(1/12)°经、纬度，计算范围覆盖太平洋45°N以北海区、整个北冰洋及北大西洋；其中，NAPA1/4和NAPA1/12在北大西洋的边界分别为26°N和7°N。目前，已利用NAPA1/4完成了1993–2015年的后报模拟。本文基于观测数据和已发表文献对模拟结果中的北冰洋海冰变化、环流结构以及水文特征进行了校验。结果表明，NAPA1/4能够再现北冰洋的主要热力与动力过程，可以用来分析海冰、水团、大西洋/太平洋入/出流等的季节与年际变化规律。利用NAPA1/12进行了1993–1996年的模拟计算。初步结果分析表明，提高分辨率可更为精细地刻画北冰洋的海冰、水团和环流的结构。Abstract: Coupled ocean and sea-ice models, developed based on Version 3.6 of the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO), with the sea-ice component being Version 3 of Louvain-la-Neuve Sea Ice Model (LIM), are applied for hindcast simulations covering the North Atlantic-North Pacific-Arctic Oceans (NAPA). The two model configurations, NAPA1/4 and NAPA1/12, have nominal horizontal resolutions of (1/4)° and (1/12)° in latitude/longitude, respectively. The model domains cover the Pacific Ocean north of 45°N, the whole Arctic, and the North Atlantic north of 26°N for NAPA1/4 and 7°N for NAPA1/12. A decade-long hindcast from 1993 to 2015 using NAPA1/4 has been completed. The hindcast results of sea-ice, circulation and hydrography variations in the Arctic Ocean are evaluated with available observational data and previously published results. The evaluation suggests that NAPA1/4 possesses reasonable skills in reproducing the key thermal and dynamic processes, and can be applied to study the seasonal and inter-annual variations of sea-ice, water masses, and Atlantic/Pacific inflows/outflows. Preliminary analysis of the NAPA1/12 hindcast during 1993-1996 suggests that increasing horizontal resolution simulates more details of the spatial structures of sea-ice, water-mass properties, and ocean circulation.
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Key words:
- coupled ocean and sea-ice models /
- model evaluation /
- Arctic Ocean
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图 1 NAPA1/4模拟海区及水深（a）和NAPA1/12模拟海区及水平网格尺寸（b）
Fig. 1 Domain and bathymetry of NAPA1/4 (a), and domain and horizontal grid size of NAPA1/12 (b)
图 2 基于CDR（a–d）与NAPA1/4（e–h）所得海冰密集度空间分布
Fig. 2 Spatial distributions of sea-ice concentration based on CDR (a–d) and NAPA1/4 (e–h)
图 3 海冰面积时间序列
a.1994–2015年多年平均海冰面积逐月变化；b.3月海冰面积年际变化；c.9月海冰面积年际变化。红色圆点实线代表模拟结果；蓝色三角实线表示CDR观测数据；绿色方形实线表示GLORYS 2v4再分析数据；图中虚线表示对应颜色数据的线性拟合趋势
Fig. 3 Time series of sea-ice area
a.Annual cycle averaged over 1994–2015; b, c. interannual variation in March and September. The solid lines with red dots, blue triangles and green squares represent NAPA1/4 hindcast, CDR and GLORYS 2v4 reanalysis, respectively. The coloured dotted lines represent long-term trends obtained through linear fitting
图 4 白令海–楚科奇海–加拿大海盆水温分布
a. 第四次北极考察站位分布，红色为7月调查站位，绿色为8月调查站位；b. 观测与NAPA1/4模拟的5 m层和50 m层温度分布的比较；c. 白令 海、楚科奇海、加拿大海盆区3个站位观测、GLORYS 2v4再分析与NAPA1/4模拟的温度剖面
Fig. 4 Water temperature in the area covering Bering Sea, Chukchi Sea and Canada Basin
a. Locations of sampling stations from the fourth CHINARE-Arctic expedition with red and green dots denoting samples deployed in July and August, respectively; b. temperature distribution at depths of 5 m (upper) and 50 m (lower) from CHINARE (left) and NAPA1/4 (right); c. temperature profiles at 3 stations in Bering Sea, Chukchi Sea and Canada Basin based on CHINARE, GLORYS 2v4 and NAPA1/4
图 5 白令海–楚科奇海–加拿大海盆盐度分布
a. 第四次北极考察站位分布，红色为7月调查站位，绿色为8月调查站位；b. 观测与NAPA1/4模拟的5 m层和50 m层盐度分布的比较；c. 白令 海、楚科奇海、加拿大海盆区3个站位观测、GLORYS 2v4再分析与NAPA1/4模拟的盐度剖面
Fig. 5 Water salinity in the area covering Bering Sea, Chukchi Sea and Canada Basin
a. Locations of sampling stations from the fourth CHINARE-Arctic expedition with red and green dots denoting samples deployed in July and August, respectively; b. salinity distribution at depths of 5 m (upper) and 50 m (lower) from CHINARE (left) and NAPA1/4 (right); c. salinity profiles at 3 stations in Bering Sea, Chukchi Sea and Canada Basin based on CHINARE, GLORYS 2v4 and NAPA1/4
图 6 1996年7月中旬GLORYS 2v4（a）与NAPA1/4（b）温盐断面分布（断面位置见b图中的子图）
Fig. 6 Temperature and salinity in mid-July of 1996 from GLORYS 2v4 reanalysis (a) and NAPA1/4 (b) along the section (thick green line) shown in the inserted figure of b
图 7 NAPA1/4夏季30 m层环流结构
黑色箭头为流速方向，颜色为流速大小。蓝色、红色、绿色、粉色、黄色、白色箭头分别表示白令海峡入流、波弗特流涡、穿极漂流、挪威–北 大西洋流、东格陵兰流、加拿大北极群岛贯穿流
Fig. 7 NAPA1/4 summer ocean circulation at 30 m depth
The ocean circulation direction denoted by black arrow and speed by colour shading. The blue, red, green, pink, yellow and white arrows represent Bering Strait inflow, Beaufort Gyre, Transpolar Drift, Norwegian–Northern Atlantic Current, East Greenland Current and Canadian Arctic Archipelago throughflow, respectively
图 8 基于NAPA1/4与锚系观测数据估算的太平洋入流通量逐月（a）和年均（b）时间序列
Fig. 8 Monthly (a) and annual-mean (b) Pacific inflow volume flux estimated from NAPA1/4 and mooring observations
图 9 NAPA1/4（a）和NAPA1/12（b）模拟的1996年6月初海冰厚度
Fig. 9 Sea-ice thickness in early June of 1996 simulated by NAPA1/4 (a) and NAPA1/12 (b)
图 10 NAPA1/4（a）和NAPA1/12（b）模拟的1996年6月初30 m层相对涡度
Fig. 10 Relative vorticity at 30 m depth in early June of 1996 simulated by NAPA1/4 (a) and NAPA1/12 (b)
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