渤、黄海生态环境模拟的参数敏感度空间差异分析

罗辰奕; 聂红涛; 张海彦

doi:10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2019.08.008

渤、黄海生态环境模拟的参数敏感度空间差异分析

doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2019.08.008

天津大学海洋科学与技术学院，天津 300072

基金项目: 国家重点研发计划（2017YFC1404403, 2016YFC1401602）；国家自然科学基金（41806018）。

详细信息

作者简介:
罗辰奕(1995—)，女，湖北省武汉市人，研究方向为海洋生态动力学。E-mail: luocy@tju.edu.cn

通讯作者:
张海彦（1987—），女，讲师，研究方向为海洋生态动力学。E-mail: haiyan_zhang@tju.edu.cn

中图分类号: X55
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2018-08-14
- 修回日期: 2018-11-23
- 网络出版日期: 2021-04-21
- 刊出日期: 2019-08-25

Spatial variability of parameter sensitivity in the ecosystem simulation of the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea

School of Marine Science and Technology, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China

摘要

摘要: 随着海洋生态系统模型的发展，生态变量增多，众多生物过程参数量值的确定成为制约生态环境模拟的瓶颈问题，生态系统结构区域性要求模型中的生态参数具有区域差异。为探究不同海区的关键参数及参数敏感度的空间差异，本研究在渤、黄海建立了ROMS-CoSiNE物理–生物耦合的高分辨率生态系统模型，并对13种生态参数的敏感度空间分布进行分析。结果表明：南黄海中部与渤海及近岸海域的敏感度差异较大。渤海敏感度最大的参数为决定光合速率的浮游植物P-I曲线初始斜率，其次为浮游动物捕食半饱和常数和浮游动物最大捕食率。而南黄海中部敏感度最大的参数为浮游动物最大捕食率，其次为浮游植物死亡率和浮游植物P-I曲线初始斜率。结合敏感度分布及浮游植物生物量收支得出，渤海水体透明度较南黄海偏低、浮游植物生长光限制较强，是引起浮游植物P-I曲线初始斜率敏感度在渤海高于黄海的主要原因。浮游动物最大捕食率及浮游植物死亡率的敏感度空间差异，受渤、黄海浮游植物生物量差异的影响，与生态系统中的高度非线性特征有关。
- 生态系统模型 /
- 参数敏感度 /
- 空间差异 /
- 渤海 /
- 黄海
Abstract: As the development of marine ecosystem models, the number of biological parameters increases, which consequently causes determination of these parameters to become a bottleneck in ecosystem modeling. Intrinsic regional characteristics of the ecosystem require spatial variability of biological parameters. To explore spatial difference of key parameters and their sensitivity, a highly resolved physical-biological ecosystem model ROMS-CoSiNE of the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea is established. Sensitivity analysis of thirteen biological parameters indicates that strong difference in sensitivity exist between the south center Yellow Sea, the Bohai Sea and it’s coastal areas as well. The most sensitive parameter in the Bohai Sea is the initial slope of P-I curve. The second and third are the half saturation constant for zooplankton grazing and the maximum specific growth rate of zooplankton. For the south Yellow Sea, the most sensitive parameters are the maximum specific growth rate of zooplankton, the death rate of phytoplankton and the initial slope of P-I curve. Based on sensitivity distribution and phytoplankton budget, it is concluded that the low transparency in the Bohai Sea and high transparency in the Yellow Sea are mainly responsible for spatial difference of sensitivity relative to the initial slope of P-I curve. Spatial difference of sensitivity relative to the maximum specific growth rate of zooplankton and the death rate of phytoplankton, is affected by phytoplankton amount difference between the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea, and related to high nonlinearity in the ecosystem.
- ecosystem model /
- parameter sensitivity /
- spatial variability /
- Bohai Sea /
- Yellow Sea

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图 1 模型区域及水深分布

Fig. 1 Bathymetry of model domain

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图 2 CoSiNE生态模型示意图

S1. 小型浮游植物；S2.硅藻；Z1. 小型浮游动物；Z2. 中型浮游动物；Chl1.小型浮游植物对应的叶绿素；Chl2.大型浮游植物对应的叶绿素

Fig. 2 Schematic of CoSiNE biological model

S1. microphytoplankton; S2. diatom; Z1. microzooplankton; Z2. mesozooplankton; Chl1. chlorophyll corresponding to microphytoplankton; Chl2. chlorophyll corresponding to macroplankton

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图 3 模型模拟的2011年3月表层温度（a）、底层温度（b）、表层盐度（c）、底层盐度（d）及2013年6月表层温度（e）、底层温度（f）、表层盐度（g）、底层盐度（h）与现场观测的对比。颜色大面分布为模型结果，散点表示现场观测结果

Fig. 3 Comparison of surface and bottom temperature and salinity between model results (colored map) and observations (dots) in March 2011 (a, b, c, d) and June 2013 (e, f, g, h)

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图 4 模型模拟的2012年6月（a）、8月（b），2013年6月（c）、7月（d）、8月（e）、9月（f）表层叶绿素与现场观测结果对比。颜色大面分布为模型结果，散点表示现场观测结果

Fig. 4 Comparison of simulated (colored map) surface chlorophyll and observations (dots) in June 2012 (a), August 2012 (b), June 2013 (c), July 2013 (d), August 2013 (e), September 2013 (f)

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图 5 关于浮游植物P-I曲线初始斜率（H-ispi）、浮游动物最大捕食率（H-beta）、浮游动物捕食半饱和常数（H-akz）、浮游动物捕食效率（H-grzf）、浮游动物死亡率（H-mort）、浮游植物最大生长率（H-gmax）和浮游植物死亡率（H-death）的敏感度分布

Fig. 5 Parameter sensitivity distribution of slope of P-I curve of phytoplankton (H-ispi), maximum grazing rate of zooplankton (H-beta), half saturation constant for zooplankton grazing (H-akz), grazing efficiency (H-grzf), specific mortality rate of zooplankton (H-mort), maximum specific growth rate (H-gmax), and death rate (H-death) of phytoplankton

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图 6 关于浮游植物P-I曲线初始斜率（H-ispi）、浮游动物最大捕食率（H-beta）、浮游植物死亡率（H-death）以及基础实验中B区和C区浮游植物生物量收支。BIO表示净的生物作用（PP-GRZ-MORT-AGG）

Fig. 6 Phytoplankton budget in B and C districts in baseline, initial slope of P-I curve of phytoplankton (H-ispi), maximum grazing rate of zooplankton (H-beta), death rate of phytoplankton (H-death) simulations. BIO represents net biological influence (PP-GRZ-MORT-AGG)

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表 1 生态模型参数取值

Tab. 1 Biological parameters

描述	参数	取值	单位	文献来源
S1最大生长率	gmaxs1	2	d^–1	[23]
S2最大生长率	gmaxs2	2.5	d^–1	[23]
Z1最大捕食率	beta1	1.6	d^–1	[29]
Z2最大捕食率	beta2	0.65	d^–1	[30]
Z1捕食半饱和常数（以氮计）	akz1	0.5	mmol/m³	[23]
Z2捕食半饱和常数（以氮计）	akz2	0.25	mmol/m³	[23]
光合作用有效短波辐射	PARfrac	0.46		[29]
S1 P–I曲线初始斜率	amaxs1	0.025	d^–1·（W·m^–2）^–1	[23]
S2 P–I曲线初始斜率	amaxs2	0.025	d^–1·（W·m^–2）^–1	[23]
S1铵盐抑制系数（以氮计）	pis1	5.59	mmol/m³	[23]
S2铵盐抑制系数（以氮计）	pis2	4	mmol/m³	[31]
S1 硝酸盐吸收半饱和常数（以氮计）	akno3s1	1	mmol/m³	[32]
S2 硝酸盐吸收半饱和常数（以氮计）	akno3s2	2	mmol/m³	[6]
S1 铵盐吸收半饱和常数（以氮计）	aknh4s1	0.1	mmol/m³	[33]
S2 铵盐吸收半饱和常数（以氮计）	aknh4s2	0.3	mmol/m³	[34]
S1 磷酸盐吸收半饱和常数（以氮计）	akpo4s1	0.065	mmol/m³	[6]
S2 磷酸盐吸收半饱和常数（以氮计）	akpo4s2	0.125	mmol/m³	[6]
S2 硅酸盐吸收半饱和常数（以氮计）	aksio4s2	4.5	mmol/m³	[31]
海水光吸收系数	ak1	0.036	m^–1	[29]
浮游植物光吸收系数	ak2	0.11	m^–1·（mmol·m^–3）^–1	[30]
Z2 死亡率	bgamma0	0.1	d^–1	[34]
Z1 捕食效率	bgamma1	0.75	d^–1	[35]
Z2 捕食效率	bgamma2	0.75	d^–1	[35]
S1 死亡率	bgamma3	0.2	d^–1	[31]
S2 死亡率	bgamma4	0.1	d^–1	[36]
碎屑分解速率	bgamma5	0.03	d^–1
浮游植物凝聚速率	bgamma6	0.005	d^–1
硝化速率	bgamma7	0.25	d^–1	[37]
小型碎屑沉降速率	wsd	15	m·d^–1	[31]
含硅碎屑沉降速率	wsdsi	25	m·d^–1	[38]
S2 沉降速率	wsp	1	m·d^–1	[23]
浮游植物氮磷吸收比	n2p	16	mol（以N计）/mol（以P计）

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表 2 浮游植物量对模型参数的敏感性

Tab. 2 Sensitivity of model parameter to phytoplankton.

实验名称	描述	浮游植物量变化率	敏感度	敏感程度
H-ispi	浮游植物P-I曲线初始斜率	74.95%	149.9%±0.88	+++
H-beta	浮游动物的最大捕食率	–52.91%	–105.81%±0.06	– – –
H-akz	浮游动物捕食半饱和常数	46.42%	92.84%±0.21	++
H-mort	浮游动物死亡率	40.07%	80.14%±0.44	++
H-grzf	浮游动物捕食效率	–36.41%	–72.81%±0.07	– –
H-gmax	浮游植物最大生长率	24.93%	49.85%±0.25	++
H-death	浮游植物死亡率	–24.39%	–48.77%±0.09	– –
H-wsd	沉降速率	–5.85%	–11.7%±0.04	–
H-n2p	浮游植物生长所需氮磷比	–2.77%	5.54%±0.05	+
H-kpo4	浮游植物生长磷酸盐半饱和常数	–2.34%	–4.68%±0.03	–
H-agg	浮游植物凝结速率	–2.11%	–4.21%±0.02	–
H-kon3	浮游植物生长硝酸盐半饱和常数	–0.56%	–1.11%±0.03	–
H-nitr	硝化速率	0.46%	0.92%±0.03	+

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表 3 B区和C区的敏感度

Tab. 3 Parameter sensitivity in District B and C

实验名称	B区		C区
实验名称	敏感度	敏感度排序	敏感度	敏感度排序
H-ispi	150.74%	1	46.36%	3
H-beta	–98.50%	3	–64.57%	1
H-akz	123.57%	2	36.59%	5
H-grzf	–66.17%	5	–37.16%	4
H-mort	92.24%	4	5.24%	7
H-gmax	55.01%	6	22.15%	6
H-death	–40.80%	7	–55.78%	2
H-wsd	–18.06%	8	1.66%	10
H-n2p	0.24%	13	2.28%	8
H-kpo4	0.65%	11	0.36%	13
H-agg	–1.79%	10	–1.63%	11
H-kno3	–3.06%	9	0.44%	12
H-nitr	0.45%	12	1.7%	9

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表 4 关于浮游植物P-I曲线初始斜率（H-ispi）、浮游动物最大捕食率（H-beta）、浮游植物死亡率（H-death）实验中B区和C区浮游植物源汇项相对于基础实验的变化率

Tab. 4 Change rates of phytoplankton source/sink terms in cases initial slope of P-I curve of phytoplankton (H-ispi), maximum grazing rate of zooplankton (H-beta), death rate of phytoplankton (H-death) relative to baseline in B and C districts

实验	H-ispi		H-beta		H-death
实验	B区	C区	B区	C区	B区	C区
PP	84.15%	27.22%	–39.73%	–14.07%	–15.01%	–15.09%
GRZ	82.58%	31.09%	–28.19%	7.83%	–29.20%	–31.76%
MORT	84.45%	24.50%	–59.39%	–35.26%	14.14%	3.33%
AGG	219.87%	60.86%	–73.95%	–38.22%	–23.02%	–39.90%
BIO	939.95%	140.44%	–116.27%	–76.00%	–30.67%	74.04%
ADV	103.11%	71.48%	–78.85%	–95.56%	–35.68%	–1.32%
DIFF	8.85%	92.53%	–0.54%	–110.61%	7.13%	11.79%

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