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21世纪海上丝绸之路海洋上层热含量及热比容海平面异常变化

齐庆华 蔡榕硕

齐庆华, 蔡榕硕. 21世纪海上丝绸之路海洋上层热含量及热比容海平面异常变化[J]. 海洋学报, 2017, 39(11): 37-48. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2017.11.004
引用本文: 齐庆华, 蔡榕硕. 21世纪海上丝绸之路海洋上层热含量及热比容海平面异常变化[J]. 海洋学报, 2017, 39(11): 37-48. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2017.11.004
Qi Qinghua, Cai Rongshuo. The variations of the upper ocean heat content and thermostatic sea level around 21st century Marine Silk Road[J]. Haiyang Xuebao, 2017, 39(11): 37-48. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2017.11.004
Citation: Qi Qinghua, Cai Rongshuo. The variations of the upper ocean heat content and thermostatic sea level around 21st century Marine Silk Road[J]. Haiyang Xuebao, 2017, 39(11): 37-48. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2017.11.004

21世纪海上丝绸之路海洋上层热含量及热比容海平面异常变化

doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2017.11.004
基金项目: 国家重点研发计划"全球变化及应对"重点专项(2017YFA0604901);中国清洁发展机制基金项目(2014112);福建省自然科学基金面上项目(2017J01076)。

The variations of the upper ocean heat content and thermostatic sea level around 21st century Marine Silk Road

  • 摘要: 气候变暖背景下,全球平均海洋变暖和海平面上升显著,为人类社会的可持续发展带来巨大挑战。上层海洋热力状况是海平面变化的主导因子之一。本文围绕"21世纪海上丝绸之路"途经海区(文中简称为丝路海区)上层海洋热含量异常的区域性时空特征,分析探讨了丝路海区热比容海平面异常的时空变化、演变特征及可能影响,以期为"21世纪海上丝绸之路"海洋环境安全保障提供服务支撑。结果表明,自20世纪70年代中后期,丝路海区上层(0~700 m)海洋已明显变暖,尤其20世纪90年代中后期增暖幅度显著加大。近60年来,在丝路海区热带海洋中,西太平洋的北赤道流区及以北海域、东海黑潮流域以及南海北部和南部海区、阿拉伯海西北部海域、马来西亚西北部海域及南印度洋部分海域具有长期增暖趋势。热带西太平洋暖池区整体增暖不明显,主要与印度洋中部海域呈反位相变化,且明显受到季节和年际变化的调制。长江口附近沿岸、南海北部沿岸、中南半岛南部沿岸以及阿拉伯海西北部沿岸的近岸海域长期增暖明显,自20世纪90年代中后期,中南半岛东部和西部沿海、澳大利亚西部沿海以及我国东南沿海热比容海平面上升明显。近岸热比容海平面的季节演变对沿海地区社会和经济发展会造成一定影响。此外,东亚夏季风与东海、黄海和渤海热比容海平面的上升显著相关,同时,ENSO、太平洋年代际振荡和印度洋偶极子的发生也均与我国东南沿海和印度洋西部沿海热比容海平面上升明显关联。特别是,气候变暖情形下,各种区域性致灾因子和气候变率的协同影响会对丝路海区海岸带和沿海地区的防灾减灾与社会经济发展带来较大挑战,开展海岸带和沿海地区全球变化综合风险研究成为当前首要任务。
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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2016-07-16
  • 修回日期:  2017-04-26

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